First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon re-feeding was 33000 yuan/ton, which was flat, down 32.65% from the same period last year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 31000, which was flat on a month-on-month basis, down 37.06% year-on-year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials remained stable. From the perspective of fundamentals, the operating rate of polysilicon rebounded and the output increased slightly; downstream new orders were scarce, the overall demand was weak, the inventory continued to accumulate, the market was still in a state of price without market, the new price system had not yet formed, and the overall price of polysilicon continued to be stable.
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat According to the data of aBM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.69 yuan/W last week, which was flat. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.72 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 5.88% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.73 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 7.35% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.71 yuan/W, which was flat. This week, affected by the downturn in terminal demand, downstream enterprises have no large-scale stock behavior, component manufacturers have increased inventory pressure, and the actual transaction price has remained stable.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon was temporarily stable after rising. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9435 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis, and the year-on-year decline was slightly expanded to 0.94%. The output of industrial silicon continued to decline, the overall demand for polysilicon, organic silicon and aluminum alloy was flat, and the price of industrial silicon was temporarily stable. In terms of
polysilicon, last week, the market was in the stage of expected ebb of self-discipline production reduction and re-dominated pricing by realistic supply and demand, and the divergence between futures and futures was further enlarged. After the early stage of the futures market was driven by the rumors of production control in the fourth quarter, the mood quickly digested and fell back, and the funds turned from the game policy story to examine the real supply and demand fundamentals. On the supply side, it is rumored that the industry reached a consensus to reduce production in the fourth quarter, but there was no substantial reduction in production in September. The production schedule is expected to increase, the weekly output remains high, the exchange warehouse receipts continue to accumulate, and the hedging selling pressure continues to suppress the rebound space. Spot level , the upstream big factory sticks to the cost bottom line, the external quotation remains relatively stable, but did not drive the transaction to pick up. The downstream silicon wafer sector has a high inventory, the profit of superimposed silicon wafers and batteries is under pressure, the purchase mainly consumes its own inventory, only a small amount of just needed replenishment, the willingness to accept high-priced goods is weak, the pattern of spot price without market continues, the inventory in the factory continues to rise passively, and the pressure of the whole industry chain is highlighted.
Looking forward to this week (9.14-9.18), the market will continue to verify the implementation of the self-discipline of production reduction. The agreement is only an independent constraint for enterprises, lacking enforcement, and its authenticity remains to be further observed. High warehouse and exchange warehouse receipts are still the core of suppressing the market, as long as the supply contraction has not landed, every rebound in the market will encounter hedging positions. Futures and spot are expected to continue the pattern of wide shocks, and spot relies on cost support to support the bottom, but the transaction is difficult to improve significantly. Medium-term market turning point depends on whether enterprises can reduce production on a large scale in October, if the implementation is not as expected, prices still have downside risks. Follow-up focus on tracking the progress of silicon material start-up maintenance, the actual scale of spot transactions, warehouse receipt registration data and changes in silicon wafer production scheduling.
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