First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon re-feeding was 33000 yuan/ton, which was flat, down 31.11% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 31000, which was flat compared with the previous year, down 34.04% compared with the previous year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials remained stable. From the perspective of fundamentals, the leading enterprises have not yet experienced large-scale and substantial production reduction, and the supply remains relatively stable; silicon wafer manufacturers are extremely cautious in purchasing, mainly just need to replenish the warehouse, the market transaction is still scarce, the open price system has not been restored, although a small number of supply quotations are high, the actual transaction price is low, and the overall price of polysilicon remains stable.
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat According to the data of aBM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.69 yuan/W last week, which was flat. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.72 yuan/W, up 1.41% on a month-on-month basis and 5.88% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.73 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis and 7.35% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.71 yuan/W, which was flat.
Affected by the rising price atmosphere in the industry, component companies are trying to raise their quotations. However, the revenue of domestic power plants is under pressure, the installed capacity is weak, the stock of low-price goods is still in circulation, the downstream has not followed up the rise, the actual signing is still cold, this week, the component only achieves a slight rise in the quotation level, and there are many obstacles to the rise of the transaction end.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon was temporarily stable after rising. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9360 yuan/ton, flat on a month-on-month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.13%. Some large factories are expected to reduce production, but the actual demand follow-up is insufficient, the release of spot transactions is limited, and the price quotation of industrial silicon is temporarily stable. In terms of
polysilicon, market expectations gradually returned to reality last week, futures fell back under pressure after rising, and the focus of the game shifted from self-discipline stories to real supply and demand. At the beginning of the week, the market was still relying on the supply contraction brought about by the anti-involution initiative, and the market rose briefly, but in reality, the substantive control of production was limited, the new production capacity climbed to hedge the partial overhaul, the total output of the industry remained high, the warehouse receipts continued to accumulate, and the concentrated departure of the long profit market led to the price callback. The spot market leader insisted on closing the price and keeping the open quotation at a high level, but the downstream silicon wafer factory had sufficient raw material inventory and strong resistance to high-priced supply. The market only sporadically needed small orders, and the overall spot circulation atmosphere remained cold.
Looking forward to the future market, self-regulatory initiatives can only restrict open quotations, but can not force enterprises to reduce production. High factory warehouses and exchange warehouse receipts are still the core shackles to suppress the market, and the fundamentals of loose supply have not been substantially repaired. Once the market goes up, hedging pressure will emerge centrally, which will significantly limit the height of the price rebound. In the
short term, the game between policy sentiment and excess reality will continue. It is expected that polysilicon futures will maintain a wide range of volatility this week (8.31-9.4). Spot quotations are easy to rise and difficult to fall, but it is difficult to have a significant volume of transactions. Follow-up focus on tracking the progress of enterprise maintenance landing, the real volume of spot transactions and the changes of downstream silicon wafer start-up scheduling.
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