First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon dense materials was 32100 yuan/ton, down 3.02% annually and 6.69% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 33000, down 1.49% from the previous month, flat year-on-year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials continued to decline. During the week, polysilicon enterprises resumed production and maintenance, but the release of production capacity was greater than contraction, the inventory of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers was relatively sufficient, the increment of new orders was relatively limited, the market lacked favorable stimulus, and the price of silicon materials continued to fall.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Polysilicon Compact Material Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Source: Digital New Energy Dat ABM. Com
2, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.73 yuan/W last week, which was the same as last week. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.73 yuan/W, down 1.35% on a month-on-month basis and up 7.35% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.74 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis and up 10.45% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.73 yuan/W, which was flat. The follow-up of overseas orders is not smooth, the photovoltaic installation is expected to be weak, the international silver price fluctuates and falls, the upstream and downstream game sentiment warms up, the price of batteries and components is stable and weak, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon remained stable. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9487 yuan/ton, which remained flat on a month-on-month basis and increased by 3.21% on a year-on-year basis. During the week, the supply side continued to enlarge, and the operating rate in Sichuan increased significantly; although the downstream polysilicon procurement increased, it was basically offset by the reduction of organic silicon, and the overall demand did not change much. In addition, the futures price fell, the new order inquiry was less, the wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the spot price remained stable temporarily. In terms of
polysilicon, from the supply side, the cost advantage of Southwest Power is obvious during the wet season, the industry operating rate remains high, and the output continues to increase. From the demand side, the raw material inventory of silicon wafer enterprises is relatively sufficient, some manufacturers maintain the purchase of rigid demand, the market transaction is cold, the price continues to decline to form a negative feedback, and the follow-up of new orders is sluggish. On the futures side, this week's emotional trading has temporarily come to an end, the market has returned to the logic of weak fundamentals, and prices have fallen back. In the short term, supply enlargement is more certain, weak demand is difficult to improve, and there are many obstacles to price rise. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will continue to fluctuate weakly next week (6.22-6.26).
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