2014全年水泥需求增速约在6%

2014-04-02 09:12:18

从水泥需求和GDP、固定资产投资的较高相关性来看,需求无需过度悲观,按照17.5%的固定资产投资增速来看,大致测算全年水泥需求增速约在6%左右。

  A股以3.91%的跌幅落下季末帷幕,而4月的到来意味着又一季投资的开启。在政策托底、宏观流动性中性趋向偏松的背景下,行业投资需要关注什么?本期开始,大众证券和财信网报为投资者梳理二季度行业的投资机会,开启投资的“春耕”大业。本期我们将焦点落在水泥行业。

  全年需求增速约在6%

  从需求端来看,市场目前普遍相对悲观,尽管2014年前两个月投资数据一般,但从两会总理政府工作报告来看,政府对于宏观经济实行区间管理,促转型和稳增长并重,在稳增长基础上促转型。

  今年GDP增速预期目标设定为7.5%,发改委固定资产投资增速目标设定为17.5%,显示政府对经济增长的信心和决心。面对一季度经济下行压力,政府已经开始部署扩内需、稳增长措施,预计后续将陆续推出。

  而从中长期来看,《国家新型城镇化规划》(2014-2020年)发布,未来随着城镇化率的提升,将带来持续的住宅建设、城市基础设施建设和公共服务设施等巨大投资规模,为行业需求提供中长期支撑。

  从水泥需求和GDP、固定资产投资的较高相关性来看,需求无需过度悲观,按照17.5%的固定资产投资增速来看,大致测算全年水泥需求增速约在6%左右。

  供给正在有效改善

  供给端来看,根据中国水泥协会初步统计,2013年全国新增投产水泥熟料生产线72条,全年新增水泥熟料年设计产能9430万吨。从投产的时间分析,上半年新增产能3658万吨,占全年39%,下半年新增产能5772万吨,占全年61%。

  此外,2013年1-11月水泥固定资产投资金额为1198亿元,同比增速为-4.63%,增速已经连续3年持续为负增长,显示水泥新增产能供给处于持续收缩状态。根据目前在建情况来看,2014年新增产能将进一步减少,部分区域如华东、华北、中南区域新建产能压力更轻。

  从2009年的38号文,到2013年的892号文、2013年底的41号文,多年持续的产能严控政策和落后产能淘汰正在发生积极成效。

  同时 《水泥工业大气污染物排放标准》颁布,环保标准跟发达国家接轨,《通用硅酸盐标准》颁布,P.C32.5标准水泥取消提上议事日程,两者都将扶优劣汰,改善供给。


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Correlation

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern Guangdong, western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta region will be raised by 20-30 yuan/ton this week, and cement prices in Guangxi will also be raised. The Hubei region continued to push up 30-50 yuan/ton, the overall market in Hunan was stable and small, and the Yueyang region was notified to rise.

2024-10-12 17:23:19

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

According to the report, in the second half of 2024, the external environment is still complex and severe, and the operation and development still face many risks and challenges. From the perspective of the industry, in the second half of the year, the marginal demand for cement improved, the supply compression continued to increase, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry was prominent. From the company's point of view, strategic opportunities and risks coexist, uncertainties increase, the complexity and severity of the business situation, the heavy and arduous tasks continue to intensify.

2024-08-27 11:20:44

Since the beginning of this year, enterprises around the country have generally increased their efforts to stagger the peak, but it is still not enough to reverse the imbalance between supply and demand. In the future, the cement industry may face a severe test.

2024-08-05 13:48:41

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the shutdown of kilns in Liaoning, Northeast China, was extended to 20 days in August, the overall price was high and stable, the demand performance was not good, and the momentum to push up again was insufficient.

2024-08-02 17:28:08

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

According to the market data of China Cement Network, affected by the high temperature weather and rainy season, the demand performance of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is flat and the price is weak.

2024-08-02 17:12:52

According to the cement network market data center news, Ningxia prices continue to decline; Shaanxi region recently due to the contradiction between supply and demand and price competition led to a larger price reduction.

2024-08-02 16:39:35

According to the data center of China Cement Market, due to the low ex-factory prices in various regions, some regions began to resume pricing this week.

2024-08-02 16:30:32

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-26 16:56:03

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center news, Guangdong, Hubei individual market notice to raise cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed. Cement quotations in other areas are basically stable and small.

2024-07-26 16:42:59

We will jointly discuss and analyze the practice path of ultra-low emission in the cement industry, and promote the industry to move towards a more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly future.

2024-07-23 18:02:53

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the northeast region continued to implement the staggered peak kiln shutdown, clinker supply shortage, 5-10 days to push up 50-60 yuan/ton.

2024-07-12 17:29:19

According to the research and statistics of the People's Bank of China, according to the issuance plans announced by various places, the issuance scale of new local bonds in the third quarter was as high as 1966.9 billion yuan, an increase of 605.3 billion yuan over the same period last year; plus the maturity scale of 1067.6 billion yuan of local bonds, it is expected that in the third quarter

2024-07-10 14:08:28

In the second quarter, the domestic rainwater was on the high side, coupled with the tight market funds, the supply and demand of the concrete industry were weak, and the National Commodity Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) fell by 3.35% annually, which was wider than the previous value.

2024-07-08 14:17:39

The reduction of new construction projects and the weakness of infrastructure have a direct impact on cement demand.

2024-05-21 09:52:34

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

From January to March 2024, the cement output was 10,000 tons 33684, a decrease of 11.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 10.2 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-March decreased by 16.3% year-on-year.

2024-04-16 15:55:59

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

Several years later, the capacity was effectively removed through market shuffling, and the capacity utilization rate of the cement industry returned reasonably. Perhaps it is the golden sentence of the cement industry, the world cement looks at China, China cement looks at conch!

2024-04-11 14:04:43

Why can Xinjiang stabilize the market and achieve counter-trend growth in 2023?

2024-04-08 10:48:21

The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17

In 2024, the setting of Xinjiang's economic development target indicates that the cement market demand will continue to grow, and the market is expected to remain stable.

2024-03-26 14:06:11

Major enterprises intend to stabilize prices, but the situation is grim, which does not rule out the possibility of falling prices in the later period.

2024-03-22 17:32:23

In January-February 2024, the output of cement was 10,000 tons 18280, a decrease of 1.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-February decreased by 7.9% year-on-year.

2024-03-18 16:54:15

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

In terms of the overall supply-demand relationship, the thermal coal market may continue to be in a state of excess, and the market price focus is expected to further move down, such as the price of 5500 kcal water coal around the Bohai Sea may fluctuate in the range of 800-950 yuan/ton.

2024-03-15 15:35:01

Corporate profits have fallen sharply compared with previous years, and the willingness to raise prices is strong.

2024-02-20 16:48:37

In January 2024, the sales price of cement in Hunan Province fell by 1.4% on a month-on-month basis and 12% on a year-on-year basis, mainly due to overcapacity, declining demand and lower production costs. Cement market prices are expected to remain volatile and weak in February, but in the long run, the boost from infrastructure and real estate investment will support demand.

2024-02-19 10:09:06

Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in 2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation?

2024-01-23 09:30:22

According to China Cement Market Data Center, this week, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui regions were affected by the decline in clinker prices along the Yangtze River and around Chaohu Lake, and the quotations in all regions showed signs of falling during the week, while the quotations in other regions were temporarily stable during the week.

2024-01-19 16:45:54

Recently, the cement network APP video number carried out the online live broadcast of "Sharing Hui Building Materials Observation", and Li Kunming, an analyst of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, looked forward to the cement industry in 2024.

2024-01-12 12:10:02

In the fourth quarter, the construction in some regions in China was gradually completed, and the scale of rush work was less than that of the same period in previous years. In addition, the focus of the work of the mixing station shifted to repayment, the market supply and demand continued to weaken, and the price of concrete was mainly low. Overall, the national commodity concrete price index (CONCPI) fell 2.98% in the fourth quarter.

2024-01-04 15:35:25

Cement market price shocks; Zhang Xiaohua: "Rational capacity reduction" is an important strategy for the cement industry to get out of the predicament; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the list of typical application scenarios and cases of industrial green microgrid in 2023.

2024-01-04 13:09:03

In this difficult period, how can the building materials industry find a turning point?

2024-01-03 17:44:39

2023年,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥行业发展景气度继续下降。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期;二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低;四季度需求弱势恢复,水泥价格小幅上涨。总体来看,2023年水泥产量创下近13年新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥价格降幅较深,行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2024年,我们认为地产对水泥需求拖累减弱,水泥产量或将小幅下降,产能过剩压力下水泥价格中枢下移,行业效益难言乐观。

2023-12-22 17:20:42

2023年,下游终端市场仍然面临资金偏紧的局面,多数区域施工增量不及预期,加之上游企业竞争加剧,成本端支撑乏力,混凝土行业易跌难涨,效益进一步走弱……

2023-12-21 09:21:01

目前,西藏自治区仍处在基础设施建设的高峰期,水泥需求端支撑力度尚可,但考虑到前期产能增长,行业供应压力仍存,市场行情取决于实际产能释放情况……

2023-11-13 14:11:28

前三季度全国累计水泥产量创近13年以来同期最低,预计行业利润同比降幅仍达60%左右,企业亏损面扩大。

2023-11-08 09:20:21

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,东三省已进入市场传统淡季,本地多数市场价格保持平稳,降价对出货量意义不大。

2023-11-03 16:07:03

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,目前河北整体市场需求疲软,销量一般,此前几轮推涨都未落实到位,本轮价格是否如期上调,有待观察。

2023-11-03 14:01:24

Since December 12, major enterprises in Changdu have notified an increase of 50 yuan/ton in cement prices, and the specific implementation remains to be observed.