At present, the real estate industry is in a downward trend, and infrastructure investment is highly expected by the cement industry. However, according to the fixed assets investment in highway and waterway transportation announced by the state in the first quarter, the situation is not optimistic.
Recently, the completion of fixed assets investment in highway and waterway transportation from January to March 2024 was released. From January to March, the total investment in highway and waterway construction was 556.65 billion yuan, down 5.5% from the same period last year, showing negative growth for the first time in recent years.
From the perspective of specific provinces, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets investment in highway and waterway transportation in Gansu Province declined the most, by 50.1%, followed by Ningxia, by 36%, and Guangxi, by 33.5%.
It can be found that these three provinces belong to the key provinces of debt conversion. In December
2023, the General Office of the State Council issued the Measures for Classifying and Strengthening the Management of Government Investment Projects in Key Provinces (Trial Implementation). The document lists Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and other 12 regions as key provinces, requiring key provinces to "smash pots and sell iron" to resolve local debt risks, while strictly controlling new government investment projects. The reduction of
new construction projects and the weakness of infrastructure have a direct impact on cement demand.
According to the statistics of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, cement demand recovered slowly in the first quarter, and by the end of March, the cement shipment rate was only 36%, which was 7.4 percentage points lower than that of the same period. The Yangtze River Delta region, where
demand is relatively strong, is only 40%, down 33 percentage points from the same period, and demand is weakening significantly. Although many regions increased peak staggering and delayed kiln opening in the first quarter, manufacturers were slow to go to the warehouse under weak demand. At the end of March, the ratio of clinker storage capacity was 62.8%, which was at a high level in the same period. The shipment rate
in the first quarter was lower than that in the same period (%). The ratio of clinker storage to capacity was at a high level (%).
The demand for cement declined and the price went down all the way. In the first quarter of 2024, there was almost no decent rebound in the national cement price trend, and the price went down all the way. By the end of March, the national cement price index recorded 105.45 points, down 7% from the beginning of January, down 25.4% from the same period last year, and only one week rose in 11 weeks. The rest are falling. Cement prices
in the first quarter opened low and went low (points) Weekly prices in the first quarter rose more or fell less (%)
Real estate drag is obvious, infrastructure support is insufficient, the cement industry is in the key node of transformation and upgrading, the industry must rationally face the current situation of insufficient demand, innovate and develop, and find new opportunities in the crisis.
At present, it is of immeasurable strategic significance and practical utility to actively promote the upgrading of large-scale production equipment and actively promote the energy-saving technological innovation and environmental protection upgrading and transformation of the cement industry, so as to enhance the core competitiveness of cement enterprises and realize the grand blueprint of sustainable development of the industry.
To this end, China Cement Network will hold the 11th China Cement Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference-Equipment Renewal Forum in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province on June 13-14 . This forum will gather government leaders, industry technical specialist, scientific research institutions, universities, cement enterprises and equipment suppliers to discuss and analyze the practical path of equipment renewal and green upgrading in the cement industry, so as to promote the industry to move towards a more energy-efficient, greener and environmentally friendly future.
