At present, under the background of the overall slowdown of investment growth and the downturn of real estate, the cement industry is moving forward with heavy burdens, and the demand of the national cement market is obviously shrinking. The price of cement fluctuates at the bottom, and the profits of most cement enterprises are greatly reduced or even lost. In this context, cement enterprises are trying to control costs in order to make themselves "live longer and go further". The cost of
coal accounts for about half of the cost of cement production, and the fluctuation of coal price directly affects the production cost of cement enterprises. It can be said that the change of coal market is closely related to the profitability of cement enterprises, and the change of power coal market in 2024 also affects the sight of cement enterprises. With the increasing supply of coal production capacity and the record high import volume in China, the power coal market in 2024 will show a series of new changes under the new supply and demand pattern and policy adjustment. Chen Tianyu, assistant general manager of
China Coal Resources Network, said that the demand side of thermal coal is expected to slow down in 2024, with an overall growth rate of about 2.2%.
From the supply side, China's coal production policy in 2024 has shifted from "increasing production and guaranteeing supply" to "stabilizing production and guaranteeing supply", which means that the pace of coal production capacity expansion will slow down. At the same time, in view of the importance of strict safety production, the increase of safety supervision may restrict the production of coal mines, thus affecting the overall supply of thermal coal. Nevertheless, considering the abundant domestic coal resources and the expected high level of imported coal, the overall market supply is still relatively loose. However, the periodic tight situation may still occur, so the downstream industries, especially cement enterprises, need to pay close attention to the dynamic changes of coal production and flexibly adjust the procurement strategy. In terms of
demand, it is expected that the growth rate of demand for thermal coal will slow down in 2024. In terms of the overall supply-demand relationship, the thermal coal market may continue to be in a state of excess, and the focus of market price is expected to further move down. For example, the price of 5500 kcal water coal around Bohai Sea may fluctuate in the range of 800-950 yuan/ton.
Chen Tianyu pointed out that for cement enterprises, there are several key changes and characteristics in the thermal coal market in 2024 that deserve special attention:
1. Due to frequent coal mine accidents in Shanxi in 2023, the situation of coal mine safety supervision is grim, especially Shanxi as the main coal purchasing place for cement enterprises. Its production is greatly affected by safety supervision, so enterprises need to monitor the production status of coal mines in real time and adjust the procurement plan in time to ensure fuel supply.
2. Cement enterprises in coastal areas use more imported coal, especially Australian coal sources. At present, most electric power enterprises have locked in a large number of imported coal associations, and the coal resources in the market circulation have been reduced. At the same time, the resumption of coal import tariffs and the uncertainty of the external policy environment will also increase procurement costs and operational difficulties. Enterprises need to rationally arrange their own purchasing strategies for imported coal according to the purchasing rhythm of international miners and power enterprises.
3. In the context of the continuous downward shift of the price focus of thermal coal, cement enterprises should seize the opportunity to optimize inventory management, reduce procurement costs, further improve energy efficiency and energy saving and consumption reduction, and effectively respond to the challenges brought by the slowdown in market demand growth through technological innovation and internal reform, so as to maintain their competitiveness and profitability.
In order to help cement enterprises control the changes in the coal market, China Cement Network will hold the 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony in Hangzhou on March 28-29. Chen Tianyu , Assistant General Manager of China Coal Resources Network, will give a wonderful speech on the theme of "2024 Power Coal Market Outlook" . Please look forward to it!
