[Original] Concrete Price Index Operation Monitoring Report for the Second Quarter of 2024

2024-07-08 14:17:39

In the second quarter, the domestic rainwater was on the high side, coupled with the tight market funds, the supply and demand of the concrete industry were weak, and the National Commodity Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) fell by 3.35% annually, which was wider than the previous value.

Supply and demand in the

concrete market were both weak, with CONCPI falling by 3.35%

in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the National Commodity Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) fell by 3.35%, an increase of 2.28 percentage points compared with the first quarter of 2024. Affected by the rainy weather, the domestic construction conditions did not improve significantly in the second quarter, coupled with the slow progress of special bond issuance, the number of new projects started was less than expected, and the market demand continued to be at a low level. At the same time, the pressure of repayment of mixing stations is greater, orders are generally more cautious, and the enthusiasm of the supply side is also insufficient. Therefore, despite the strong willingness to support the price of raw materials and the increase in the cost of concrete production compared with the previous period, the actual transaction focus is still continuing the downward trend. Overall, the domestic concrete supply and demand were weak in the second quarter, and the concrete price index further declined. Compared

with the same period last year, CONCPI fell 12.68% in the second quarter, an increase of 5.01 percentage points in the same quarter.

Figure 1: Trend of China's concrete price in the second quarter on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis (%)

Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)

In terms of months, China's concrete price index continued to decline in the second quarter. The decline widened first and then narrowed, falling 1.15% in April, 1.86% in May and 0.83% in June. According to PPI data, the month-on-month decline in April was 0.20%, the month-on-month rise in May was 0.20%, and the overall price trend of the industry was still stronger than that of the concrete industry.

Figure 2: Trend of monthly national concrete price index (CONCPI) and PPI on a month-on-month basis (%)

Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)

Prices in most regions fell by a wide margin. From the

perspective of Northeast China, the decline in Southwest China was the highest, with the concrete price index falling by 6.62% on a month-on-month basis, followed by East China and Central South China, with a month-on-month decline of 3.95% and 2.98% respectively, while North China and Northwest China had a relatively small decline, with a month-on-month decline of 2.44% and 2.01% respectively. In addition, the concrete price index in Northeast China stopped falling and rebounded, with an increase of 3.19%. Overall, the decline in concrete prices in most regions of China widened in the second quarter, with only the Northeast region following the rise in raw materials. Compared

with the same period last year, the price of concrete in the six major regions of the country is still mainly falling. Among them, the price index of the southwest region fell the most, with a year-on-year decline of 16.17%; the price index of East China and Central South China fell the second, with a year-on-year decline of 14.60% and 13.04% respectively; the concrete price index of North China and Northwest China fell by 8.14% and 5.44% respectively. The concrete price index in Northeast China rose by 1.62% year on year.

Figure 3: Trend of price index of concrete in six regions in the second quarter (%)

Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)

More than 90% of the provincial and municipal prices fell. Only Liaoning market prices rose

in the second quarter, and C30 concrete prices fell in 27 of 29 provinces and cities. Among them, the price drop in Chongqing was the highest, with a month-on-month drop of 8.31%; the average price of concrete in Hunan, Sichuan, Beijing, Anhui and Shandong fell by 5.01% -6.88%; the average price of concrete in Yunnan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hubei, Ningxia, Shanghai, Xinjiang and Fujian fell by 3.11% -4.59%; The rest of the provinces and cities with falling prices basically fell between 0.07% and 2.81%. C30 concrete prices rose in only one province, and the price of concrete in Liaoning market rose by 7.63% annually. In addition, the average price of concrete in Henan market remained stable.

Figure 4: Average price growth rate of C30 concrete in 29 provinces and cities in the second quarter of 2024 (%)

Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)

Table 1: C30 concrete in 29 provinces and cities in China in the second quarter Average price, year-on-year and month-on-month monitoring (yuan/m3,%)

Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)

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Correlation

Demand is low, and cement prices of some enterprises in Guangxi have been lowered by 25-30 yuan/ton recently.