Supply and demand both weakened, with CONCPI falling by 2.98%
in the fourth quarter, and the National Commodity Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) falling by 2.98% in the fourth quarter, narrowing the price decline by 2.89 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2023. With the increase of cold air activity and the gradual weakening of domestic construction intensity, the north has basically entered the winter shutdown stage, while the demand for local rush work in the south still exists, but due to the limited scale, concrete shipments have declined steadily, and the market price is in the grinding stage. In October, the domestic weather conditions were still acceptable, coupled with the arrival of special debt funds, some new projects were under construction, but the demand for housing construction was still relatively weak, concrete enterprises were difficult to follow the rise of raw materials, and the price decline was narrower than the previous period. From November to December, the temperature of the whole country dropped, the situation of suspension and postponement of downstream construction projects increased, and the demand for concrete gradually declined. At the same time, due to the poor repayment of mixing stations and the weak enthusiasm for receiving orders, the industry as a whole presents a weak state of supply and demand, and the price of concrete is stable and weak. Compared
with the same period last year, CONCPI in the fourth quarter fell 11.76% year-on-year, an increase of 0.56 percentage points in the same quarter.
Figure 1: Trend of China's concrete price in the fourth quarter on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
In terms of months, China's concrete price index in the third quarter showed a bottoming trend. The decline gradually narrowed, falling 0.74% in October, 0.25% in November and 0.03% in December. According to PPI data, the growth rate in October and November was 0.0% and-0.3% respectively, which was weaker than the concrete price index in trend.
Figure 2: Trend of monthly national concrete price index (CONCPI) and PPI on a month-on-month basis (%)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Prices in six regions generally fell. From the regional perspective, the price index of concrete in Southwest China and Central
South China fell by 5.75% and 4.43% respectively, followed by that in East China and North China, which fell by 2.14% and 1.64% respectively, and that in Northwest China and Northeast China fell by 0.61% and 0.26% respectively. Overall, in the fourth quarter, concrete prices in all regions still showed a general decline, and the decline was narrower than that in the third quarter. Compared
with the same period last year, the price index of concrete in the six major regions of the country continued to fall. Among them, the price index of East China and Southwest China dropped by 14.27% and 13.33% respectively, with a further decline; followed by Northeast China and Central South China, with a year-on-year decline of 11.93% and 10.10% respectively; North China and Northwest China had a relatively small decline, with a year-on-year decline of 6.78% and 5.19% respectively.
Figure 3: Trend of concrete price index in the fourth quarter of six regions (%)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Prices in more than 70% of provinces and cities continued to fall. Shanxi and Fujian markets rebounded
slightly in the fourth quarter, with C30 concrete prices falling in 22 of 29 provinces and cities. Among them, prices in Guangdong and Yunnan fell by 8.08% and 6.62% respectively, while the average price of concrete in Chongqing, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Beijing and Zhejiang fell by 3.40% -5.38%; The average price of concrete in Henan, Tianjin, Hunan, Jiangxi, Hainan, Guangxi, Hubei, Shaanxi and Hebei markets dropped by about 1.03% -2.89% on a month-on-month basis; in other provinces and cities with falling prices, the decline was basically between 0.41% and 0.95%. C30 concrete prices rose in two provinces, with concrete prices in Shanxi and Fujian markets rising by 0.49% and 0.14% respectively. In addition, the average price of concrete in Xinjiang, Ningxia, Liaoning, Jilin and Inner Mongolia markets remained stable.
Figure 4: Average price growth rate of C30 concrete in 29 provinces and cities in the fourth quarter of 2023 (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Table 1: C30 concrete in 29 provinces and cities in China in the fourth quarter Average price, year-on-year and month-on-month monitoring (yuan/m3,%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
