中国水泥网:房地产三季度或将筑底企稳 水泥需求何时“暖”?

2022-07-01 13:51:15

对房地产上游的水泥行业来说,困难时期预计还会持续一段时间,短期内较难缓解。

基建、房地产和农村市场一直是拉动水泥需求的三驾马车。不过,去年下半年以来,房地产行业的下行为水泥需求蒙上一层阴影。

据了解,水泥行业的下游需求主要是房地产和基建,两者的需求比重可能会超过水泥行业整体需求的80%。中国水泥网在调研全国水泥市场过程中,大部分受访者也都曾指出房地产形势严峻,对水泥需求拉动不再像以往明显。尤其是今年以来,在房地产下行、疫情频发、天气不佳等综合因素下,水泥行业需求下滑更为明显。

房地产市场后续会如何发展?何时能再度提振水泥需求?中国水泥网特别采访了易居·克而瑞信息集团研究中心副总经理杨科伟,听他聊聊房地产市场预期及对水泥行业的影响。

上半年:房地产行业最困难的时期已经过去

“房地产行业销售最困难的时期已经过去了。”杨科伟表示,上半年房地产行业发展主要呈现出四个特征:

一、总体是“先跌后稳”:上半年房地产总体是处于一个“先跌后稳”的走势,行业规模同比有较大幅度的下降,但从时间线上看,二季度和一季度有明显的变化,市场底部已经较为明确的显现出来,目前基本是处于一个逐渐平稳的过程。

二、市场分化明显:从上半年的情况来看,房地产依旧火热的城市越来越少,主要的一二线城市和少量的三四线城市还算“火热”,但绝大多数城市的房地产销售、成交依然比较困难。

三、政策变化:今年上半年的政策和去年相比已经有一个显著的变化,那就是从“收紧”逐步变成“放松、刺激”的主基调。“据我们统计,目前有接近170多个省市出台了500多条的刺激性政策,来推动房地产市场的走稳。”杨科伟表示。

四、房企拿地意愿依然遇冷:销售欠佳,融资困难,这些都导致房企的拿地意愿和动能相对变弱,上半年土地市场的成交情况仍然“很冷”。“上半年土地市场的成交量同比下降50%以上,而这会影响接下来的新开工情况,对水泥、钢材、玻璃等上游原材料行业而言并不是好事。”杨科伟补充道。

下半年:三季度或将筑底企稳

在采访中,杨科伟也分享了他对下半年房地产走势的看法:

一方面,从楼市的走势来看,下半年预计会走出“L”型的趋势。“‘L’型意味着先低后平,也就是说,下半年不会比上半年更差。”杨科伟表示,房地产行业销售最困难的时期已经过去,下半年同比跌幅也将会有一个明显的收窄。

从城市角度来说,杨科伟预计,今年三季度房地产行业将处于筑底企稳阶段,随着市场供应量的增加,一线城市和个别二线城市成交量会有明显回升。一是去年集中供地的项目会在今年三季度形成一个供应高峰;二是随着市场回升,房企也会积极加大推盘及营销力度。在各种因素的综合作用下,房地产市场也在发生一些积极的变化。预计一、二线城市在三季度会率先出现回暖,绝大多数三、四线城市可能要到四季度甚至明年一季度才有可能缓慢复苏。

另一方面,预计2022年依然会是土地成交的“小年”。主要原因在于,房企的经营风险短期内难以化解,房企更多的是把有限的资金、精力投入到在建施工中去,争取保交付保竣工,所以在拿地、新开工方面进度就会放慢,强度也会放低。

总体上,杨科伟预计今年房地产行业会呈现出“一二三四”的格局:房地产开发投资同比下降10%上下;商品房销售面积同比下降20%左右;房屋新开工面积同比下降30%左右;土地购置面积同比下降40%上下。

由此,杨科伟也表示,对房地产上游的水泥行业来说,困难时期预计还会持续一段时间,短期内较难缓解。

那么,长期来看,房地产行业的发展会对水泥行业产生什么影响呢?2022年7月11-12日,中国水泥网将在杭州举办“2022中国水泥产业峰会暨TOP100颁奖典礼”。会上,杨科伟将就“房地产市场预期改善对水泥行业的影响”为主题做精彩演讲,诚邀您一起共襄盛举、共谋发展!

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