2023, under the two-way extrusion of the continuous bottoming of cement prices and the high cost of raw materials, the efficiency of cement enterprises declined sharply, the competition in the same industry intensified, and the overall situation fell into the lowest point in the past ten years.
< a href = "What is the trend of the cement industry in the https://price.ccement.com/brandnewslist-1-1000155.2024
?"? What challenges and variables will it face?
Supply: New production capacity continues to be put into operation, the impact of off-peak production is weakening, and the market competition is intensifying
. It is planned that 28 lines will be put into operation
. According to the tracking of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, in 2024, It is planned that 28 clinker lines with a capacity of over 40 million tons will be put into operation (plus some lines that should have been put into operation in 2023, more are actually planned to be put into operation). Two to four lines have been put into production in Chongqing and Yunnan in southwest China, Hunan and Guangdong in central and southern China, and Fujian in East China.
However, in view of the fact that the industry is still under great pressure in 2024, it is expected that the release progress of new investment capacity will still be less than expected. Nevertheless, the contradiction between supply and demand is highlighted in the downward period of demand, and the problem of overcapacity is still serious.
< IMG SRC = "https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/fzpjj5jvca1710832358471. Take Hebei as an example. Hebei requires: November 1, 2023 to October 31, 2024. Self-discipline self-rescue peak-staggering production for 200 days in the northeast Hebei region and 190 days in the middle and south Hebei region.
In contrast, the peak staggering production time in Hebei in 2022-2023 is only 150 days, including 120 days in the heating season and 30 days in the non-heating season. While the number of days
of off-peak production is increasing, the effect is declining. In 2023, even though the provinces across the country have increased their efforts to stagger peak production to varying degrees, and some provinces have even stopped almost every month, the price of cement is still running at a low level, and the profits of the whole industry are more than 30 billion.
According to the recent survey results of China Cement Network, many enterprises in the industry are still pessimistic about the effect of peak staggering production in 2024, and the weakening effect of peak staggering production will directly lead to the difficulty of boosting the industry situation in 2024.
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, China Resources Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd. In 2024, the market strategy of "grabbing share, keeping bottom line, optimizing structure and improving status" will be the core to enhance the status of the industry.
New < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/brandnewslist-1-1000096.
Conch Cement proposes that market share is the basis for sustainable development of enterprises.". Next, Conch will adhere to the idea of "share is the foundation, profit is the purpose", maintain a reasonable market share, and strive to improve operating efficiency.
Jidong Cement proposed that in the face of the risk of declining demand for cement, on the basis of stabilizing market channels and high-quality customer groups, it should adhere to compliance management and strive for a steady increase in market share.
The real estate market is still in the process of
adjustment and transformation.
Last year, the central government decided to issue 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, which injected a dose of cardiotonic into the depressed cement market sentiment. In the first quarter of this year, infrastructure projects across the country seized the time to start construction. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing and other places announced the list of key infrastructure projects in 2024, involving traditional and new infrastructure areas, to a certain extent, driving the demand for cement to pick up.
However, infrastructure investment in 2024 will also face some blockages, especially the industry rumors that 12 heavily indebted provinces and cities are required to strictly control debt growth and new investment. The delay or suspension of some infrastructure construction in these 12 provinces may bring a huge blow to cement demand.
Especially for Guangxi, Guizhou and other provinces with large cement production capacity, the situation in 2024 will be very grim.
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In the first two months of this year, the investment in real estate development nationwide was 1184.2 billion yuan." The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 669.02 million square meters, down 11.0% year-on-year, and the new housing construction area was 94.29 million square meters, down 29.7%; The sales area of new commercial housing is 11369 million square meters, down 20% year-on-year.
Overall, the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment and transformation, and it is difficult to form a strong support for cement demand. In
2024, the cake will be less and less, more and more people will enjoy the cake, and the contradiction of industry surplus will become more acute under the background of downward demand. At present, the price of cement has reached a relatively low level, many enterprises are operating at a loss, and the profit is hard to say optimistic. Looking forward to this year, under the constraints of serious overcapacity, the rising space of cement price may be limited, and the average price of cement in 2023 is relatively high. It is expected that the focus of the average price of cement in 2024 will continue to move down. A person in charge of a cement enterprise in Yichang
, Hubei, gave feedback to China Cement Network in a recent survey: "If the price is not reduced, the kiln will not be able to open, and the warehouse will be full." The market is fatigued and weak, competition is intense, open year namely decisive battle, the price already reached it seems that "fall cannot fall" however "must fall" situation.
"The species that can survive when the environment changes are not the strongest, nor the smartest, but those that can respond quickly to environmental changes.". In the face of fierce market competition, enterprises with strong competitiveness and rapid response to the external environment can win the future.
Both large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises should seriously consider how to obtain survival and development space in this "industry winter" and find a way out of their own.
Cement industry has serious overcapacity, the impact of peak staggering production on the supply side has declined significantly, the "competition and cooperation relationship" formed over the years has broken down, and the pressure of industry operation has doubled.
