(I) Operation
of the cement market of the whole province in 2023 In 2023, the average cement sales price of the whole province rose and fell, and then stabilized and rebounded slightly. At the beginning of the year, the average sales price of cement was 397.4 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, it was 343.94 yuan/ton, down 13.45%. The highest point of the year was 419.4 yuan/ton on April 9, the lowest point was 295.93 yuan/ton on September 3, and the price difference between the highest point and the lowest point was 123.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.44%. In 2023, the cement market of the whole province showed the operation characteristics of "insufficient demand, new low price and falling volume and price", and the downward time of cement price was longer than that of last year, which was generally lower than that of the same period last year. Weak demand rebounded in the first quarter, low demand in the second and third quarters, low peak season, cement market prices repeatedly hit new lows, even fell below the cost line, stabilized and rebounded in the fourth quarter. Influenced by factors such as increased supply, poor demand recovery, financial pressure, lower cost and intensified competition, the overall price of cement market fell in 2023. The annual cement market trend can be divided into three stages:
1. The first stage. From January to April, the price of cement fluctuated and rose, which was in the high price area of the whole year.
(1) Staggered production was intensified, and cement production dropped to the lowest level since 2012. In the first quarter of the year, 59 cement production enterprises in the province had the longest number of days of kiln shutdown for peak-shifting production, which was 51 days, and the total number of days of kiln shutdown was 1443 days, so the cement supply in the province was controllable;
(2) The increase in the operating rate of engineering projects provided support for the demand for cement. Under the favorable background of strong expectation of macroeconomic recovery, major projects took the lead, and multiple measures were deployed from various aspects, including supporting rigid and improving housing demand, and doing a good job in real estate measures such as guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, which injected new impetus into the cement industry;
(3) The cement market has a strong desire to rise. In 2023, with the return of economic life to normal, the state further expanded domestic demand, continued to increase infrastructure construction and municipal construction, the prosperity of the cement industry improved, and market confidence increased. The second phase of
2、. From May to September, cement prices fell, and "weak demand, high inventory and tight capital" were common problems in the cement industry. Influenced by many factors such as the downturn of investment in the real estate market, the decline of the prosperity of the construction industry, the shortage of funds in the market, the decline of the cost of raw materials and fuels, and the traditional off-season of sales, the demand for cement in the whole province has further shrunk, the pressure of market sales has been greater, the decline of storage has been slow, the pressure of market competition has increased, and the price of cement has continued to hover at a low level, falling to the lowest level in the past five years. Except for major projects, the demand for cement in other projects is very small, and the weak demand is still the main factor for the continuous decline of cement prices. The third phase of the
3、. From October to December, cement prices stopped falling and recovered, showing the overall characteristics of "rising costs and slightly easing the contradiction between supply and demand".
(1) Take various measures to implement supply-side structural reform. The whole province reduces production capacity by means of peak staggering, energy saving and carbon reduction, and strictly controls the supply side. From September 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, the peak-shifting production plan was implemented in Hunan, and some production lines were basically in a state of shutdown. In the past two years, 11 low-efficiency production lines that had been shut down for a long time were withdrawn, which led to the decline
of market inventory due to the self-discipline of the industry. (2) The market demand has improved. The fourth quarter is the peak season for cement demand, especially the issuance of one trillion treasury bonds by the state, of which Hunan Province issued 64.3 billion treasury bonds, and the market is expected to stimulate cement consumption by infrastructure construction. In addition, under the background of frequent policies of financial support for the real estate industry, many banks have stated that they will accelerate the improvement of the financing environment of real estate enterprises and actively support the financing needs of real estate enterprises. Before the year, in order to complete the annual construction task and catch up with the construction period, the demand was released centrally.
(II) Research and judgment
on the price trend of the cement market of the whole province in 2024 In 2024, the cement industry will continue to implement peak staggering production, promote industry self-discipline and strictly control cement production capacity, which will stabilize cement prices to a certain extent. Energy saving and emission reduction and development of new energy in cement industry are important measures to realize green transformation and implement "double carbon". The province practices the concept of energy saving, consumption reduction and low-carbon development, and there will be little room for cement production growth in 2024. Under the background of steady growth, infrastructure investment and major project construction will continue to develop, and will continue to play an important role in stabilizing economic growth. The real estate market is still expected to recover under the support of favorable policies, which will support the subsequent cement market demand, accelerate the formation of physical workload, and provide increment for cement demand. Cement demand is expected to recover, and cement demand in 2024 will be better than in 2023. It is expected that the cement market price of the whole province will rebound to a certain extent in 2024, but the rebound space is limited.
