Under the background of the deep adjustment of the real estate industry, the land market is showing significant changes. In an interview with China Cement Network, Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Kerui Research Center, systematically expounded the current change of land acquisition strategy of real estate enterprises and its enlightenment to the cement industry.
Yang Kewei analysis, the current land market presents three major characteristics:
1, the overall scale of land acquisition continues to shrink, especially private housing enterprises generally do not have new land reserves.
2. The concentration of real estate enterprises increased, with state-owned enterprises and local urban investment becoming the main force of land acquisition, with a share of more than 80%, and the industry concentration further increased.
3. Focusing on the core plots of about 10 cities, the strategy of "fixing production by sales" led the investment of real estate enterprises to focus on the core plots of individual first-and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu and Xi'an. In other regions and cities, the land market is cold due to inventory pressure and insufficient demand.
In the face of market changes, the investment logic of real estate enterprises has changed:
1. Pay more attention to the safety of cash flow, give priority to de-industrialization and repayment, and only take the land that can be quickly de-industrialized and have guaranteed profit margin.
2. Focus on the core cities, the first-tier and second-tier core land acquisition, tend to choose plots with good location and complete supporting facilities.
3. Diversified land acquisition, in addition to bidding, auction and listing, real estate enterprises acquire land through agent construction, urban renewal, cooperative development and other means to reduce costs and risks.
Yang Kewei said that the differences between different cities are very significant. The demand for housing in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and individual second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an and Tianjin is relatively stable and abundant, the land market is active, the competition for high-quality land is fierce, and the land price remains high. But at the same time, the plots in the peripheral areas of these cities are still deserted, and they are generally sold at the bottom price or even unsold.
In other second-tier cities and third-tier and fourth-tier cities, the inventory pressure of the real estate market is high, the demand is insufficient, the land market is cold, the auction rate is high, and the local city investment is the main support.
Faced with the new normal of real estate, how to break the cement industry? Yang Kewei pointed out that although the contraction of the scale and development speed of the real estate market has brought severe challenges to the cement industry, the potential in the fields of urban village reconstruction, urban renewal, affordable housing construction and infrastructure construction has provided new development space for the cement industry.
Yang Kewei put forward three suggestions:
1. Diversify the development of non-real estate areas and reduce the dependence on real estate.
2. Technological innovation and green production conform to the new development mode of the real estate industry in the future. The requirements of the real estate industry for green buildings and energy conservation and environmental protection have been raised, which has promoted the transformation of the cement industry to a low-carbon and environmentally friendly direction.
3. Optimize the layout of production capacity and focus on the core areas of new housing development in the future, such as first-tier and second-tier cities and core urban agglomerations, which have great potential to improve housing demand in urban renewal. On March 13-14,
2025, China Cement Network will hold the " 14th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou, and the "Cement Economy 50 Forum" will be held at the same time. This summit will bring together industry elites and multi-resources to discuss and deal with the difficulties faced by the industry from the perspectives of optimal allocation of supply side, precise docking of demand side, deep insight into macro-economy and frontier promotion of technological innovation, and jointly create a new chapter for the industry! At the meeting, Yang Kewei will bring a wonderful report. Hurry up to sign up!
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