Japan is approaching a historic low. According to industry forecasts, the country's cement demand will fall to 30 million tons in fiscal year 2026, which is not only far below the historical peak of 86.28 million tons set in 1990, but also below the level of the 1964 Tokyo Olympic Games. Unlike previous demand callbacks caused by fluctuations in the economic cycle or reductions in public spending, this decline is generally defined by the industry as a structural recession, whose depth and sustainability are beyond the scope of traditional cyclical adjustments, marking a new downward channel for cement consumption in Japan. The core driving force of
this demand collapse comes from the institutional changes in the labor market. The implementation of the Work Style Reform Act in 2024 and the statutory cap on overtime hours have fundamentally changed the pace of work in the construction industry. Due to strict restrictions on working hours, projects that could have been completed within one year were generally extended to 18 months, and the systematic extension of the construction period directly reduced the intensity of cement procurement and consumption per unit year. This demand restraint effect caused by the adjustment of labor laws and regulations can not be explained by short-term market fluctuations, but constitutes a long-term rigid constraint on the total consumption of cement. The negative impact of the contraction of the
cement industry has gone far beyond the construction industry itself and is gradually affecting environmental management and the national emergency response system. In Japan's circular economy system, cement plants have long assumed the key function of recycling industrial and municipal solid wastes such as steel slag, fly ash and waste plastics. With the continuous reduction of production scale and even the closure of factories-the shutdown of Mitsubishi UBE Cement Kyushu Factory is a typical case-the export of harmless and resource disposal of waste in China is narrowing sharply. What is more serious is that industry experts warn that the excessively shrinking industrial base will seriously weaken Japan's ability to rebuild rapidly after major natural disasters. As a strategic material for emergency repair and infrastructure restoration, the decline in the local supply capacity of cement has constituted a potential security risk.
Faced with the irreversible trend of the domestic market, Japan's major cement manufacturers are accelerating business restructuring and shifting their strategic focus overseas, focusing on developing international markets with relatively stable demand, such as the United States and Southeast Asia. Although public infrastructure investment may underpin domestic demand at some point in the future, most analysts believe that the downward trend of cement demand in Japan will be difficult to reverse in the short term, considering the permanent change in labor practice patterns and the continued shrinkage of the working-age population. The whole industry is being forced to adapt to a new normal of permanent contraction of demand scale shaped by institutional restructuring and demographic structure.
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