by the war between Israel and Palestine, it is expected that the demand for photovoltaic power generation in some countries in the Middle East will decrease next year, but the overall photovoltaic market in the Middle East will grow steadily in the future, and the demand is expected to reach 29-35 GW in 2027. It is expected that the main sources of demand in the future will still come from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
With the rise of the slogan of net zero carbon emissions and energy security, countries around the world are paying more and more attention to the issue of energy diversification. Because of the advantages of abundant sunshine and sparse population in the Middle East, many countries have invested in photovoltaic power generation, especially Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have the largest market demand. However, the political problems caused by the Israeli-Palestinian war in recent days have also led to changes in local demand. InfoLink takes you through the current energy trends in the Middle East and the outlook for the future.
According to InfoLink's research , the demand in the Middle East in 2023 is about 20.5-23.
The current situation and development
of the three major photovoltaic demand countries in the Middle East 1. Turkey has local module production capacity 0 HTML0U NK10, therefore, the manufacturing model is mainly 0 HTML0 UNK1 1 imported batteries and locally manufactured modules 0 HTML0 UNK1 2, 0 HTML0 UNK1 3 some modules are also exported to the United States or Europe 0 HTML0 UNK1 4, which is further benefited from the wave of de-Sinicization of photovoltaic manufacturing in recent years. 0 HTML0 https://www.databm. 5 Although the proportion of imported energy use in Turkey is still higher than that of photovoltaic power generation, the government continues to encourage new policies to promote < a href = "https://www.databm." such as feed-in tariffs. Measures such as FIT, large-scale bidding and net metering system are aimed at reducing energy import costs and easing inflation. According to the latest decree, photovoltaic power generation facilities installed between July 1, 2021 and December 31, 2030 will receive a 10-year fixed tariff subsidy (TRY 1.06/kWh). In addition to policy promotion, Turkey has also launched renewable energy bidding plans (YEKA) 0 HTML 0 UNK1 8 in recent years. At present, five rounds of bidding have been released. Among them, the YEKA GES-1 (1 GW) Karapinar project held in the first round of 2017 was officially completed in May this year, which will increase the share of photovoltaic power generation by 20% in the total renewable energy and become one of the largest photovoltaic facilities in the country. Although there is no new large-scale bidding project this year, with the successive commencement of previous projects, looking forward to the future, Turkey's photovoltaic situation is very good, and it is expected to reach the total installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2035 by 0 HTML 0 UNK2 59.0 HTML 0 UNK2 12. Saudi Arabia 0 HTML 0 UNK2 2 The current photovoltaic market in Saudi Arabia shows a trend of rapid growth. 0 HTML 0 UNK2 3 This year's demand is expected to reach 5.5-6. Although by 2022, 67% of the country's electricity comes from natural gas, 33% from oil, and less than 1% from photovoltaic power generation, the Saudi government has begun to formulate a series of policies for the renewable energy industry due to the gradual decrease in global demand for oil in the future. It also tries to replace oil and natural gas with photovoltaic power generation, which shows the country's urgent need for energy diversification. 0 HTML0 UNK2 4 Under The National Renewable Energy Program (NREP), Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) is the main economic support and plays a vital role in Saudi Arabia's energy transformation. At this stage, we are also committed to the Saudi Vision 2030 and strive to achieve the goal of 40 GW of photovoltaic installed capacity per year in 0 HTML0 UNK2 52030 0 HTML0 UNK2 6. Since 2017, NREP has launched four rounds of large-scale PV bidding, with a total of 4470 MW. At present, there are still many projects under construction that have not been completed. In the future, regular bidding will be maintained to support the overall PV demand in the Middle East, and it is expected to reach the target of 34% of PV installed capacity by 2030. 0 HTML 0 UNK2 7 As a powerful energy country, many overseas manufacturers have also noticed the Saudi region. For example, the recent 0 HTML 0 UNK2 8 Central 0 HTML 0 UNK2 9 has confirmed that it will cooperate with Saudi Vision Industries to build a silicon wafer factory, 0 HTML 0 UNK3 0 Xiexin Technology 0 HTML 0 UNK3 1 is also expected to build a silicon material factory in Saudi Arabia, which will further promote the development of the photovoltaic field in Saudi Arabia. And accelerate the energy transformation in the Middle East. 0 HTML0 UNK3 2 3.United Arab Emirates 0 HTML0 UNK3 3 The photovoltaic market in the United Arab Emirates also continues to flourish, and the overall demand for 0 HTML0 UNK3 4 this year is expected to reach 3.7-4 GW0 HTML0 UNK3 5, which is still dominated by large-scale ground projects. With the government's < a href = "https://www.databm.0HTML0UNK36", the Emirates Water and Electricity Company (EWEC) has officially launched the tender process for the 1.5 GW AI Khazna photovoltaic project, which will provide enough electricity for about 160000 households once it is fully operational. In addition, EWEC has indicated that it will propose at least two more 1.0 HTML 0 UNK3 7. In addition to the support of large-scale projects, the UAE government has also introduced a net metering policy and a FIT tariff system, and passed a new federal law in November 2022 to regulate the grid-connection of distributed projects in seven Emirates. Allowing any user with distributed generation to directly connect electricity to the local grid after obtaining government approval, the demand for distributed projects is expected to gradually increase by enhancing the distribution capacity of distributed generation to reduce electricity demand during peak hours of the grid, coupled with the decline in component prices. 0 HTML 0 UNK3 8 War factors have led to a decline in photovoltaic demand in some countries 0 HTML 0 UNK3 9 In addition to the top three demand countries in the Middle East, 0 HTML 0 UNK4 0 photovoltaic demand in some other countries has declined due to the recen t Israeli-Palestinian war 0 HTML 0 UNK4 1, especially in Israel, due to the impact of the war. Many household photovoltaic facilities were severely damaged by artillery fire. In May, the Prime Minister of Israel ordered that new regulations would be enacted within 180 days to regulate that all new non-residential buildings must install photovoltaic modules, and that other residential buildings must have roofs to prepare for the installation of photovoltaic facilities in the future, but due to the impact of war factors, the current installation plan is still in a wait-and-see state. This situation makes the Israeli photovoltaic market face uncertainties and challenges, and because of the small size of the country, it is not conducive to the development of large-scale ground projects, resulting in 2025 9. Gaza is controlled by Israel and stopped power operation, photovoltaic development is also difficult to guarantee the smooth progress of the future because of the continuation of artillery fire. It is also necessary to consider whether the import of photovoltaic-related technologies will be blocked by Israel. 0 HTML 0 UNK4 2 In the regions affected by the war, the demand for PV in the future will be hindered to a certain extent. In addition, the development of PV projects will inevitably require a period of planning and construction. 0 HTML0 UNK4 3 Middle East PV Market Prospects 0 HTML0 UNK4 4 Outlook The overall Middle East PV market will grow steadily in the future, and the demand for 0 HTML0 UNK4 5 is expected to reach 29-35 GW0 HTML0 UNK4 6 by 2027. It is expected that the main sources of demand in the future will still come from 0 HTML 0 UNK4 7 Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates 0 HTML 0 UNK4 8, but the development of a few countries may slow down due to war factors. 0 HTML0 UNK4 9 In the short term, the PV demand in Israel and other regions affected by war will slow down due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and geopolitical uncertainties will also reduce the willingness of overseas investment in PV projects in some countries in the Middle East, which also means that the Middle East region still needs to strengthen cooperation with the international community to ensure the stability of energy supply; But this war may make governments in the Middle East realize the importance of energy security, and then promote the development of renewable energy more vigorously, which will have the opportunity to promote long-term photovoltaic demand in the Middle East.
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