On December 20, InfoLink, an industry organization, announced the price of photovoltaic supply chain this week . This week, the decline in silicon wafer prices expanded, with 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafers falling by 9.2% and 182mm silicon wafers falling by nearly 5%. The
recent cold wave and snowfall in most parts of northern China have indeed affected the efficiency of cargo transportation in the main silicon production areas in the region to varying degrees, but up to now, the impact on the overall delivery rhythm is very limited. On the demand side, on the contrary, in the recent successive crystal pulling links, some enterprises have begun to reduce the demand for primary polysilicon, and the quantity and urgency of the demand for primary polysilicon have declined. The original signed orders may encounter problems in the process of execution, including but not limited to negotiation issues such as order price modification and even order termination. From the
supply side, the output did not increase beyond expectations, and the basic rhythm remained stable and normal, but the shipment of high-quality silicon materials, especially the corresponding silicon materials that can meet the demand for N-type crystal pulling materials, remained tight, showing the characteristics of better liquidity. Loose materials, coral materials and other corresponding silicon materials with a certain proportion of output, in addition to the need to make more concessions in terms of price in exchange for shipment, this part of the accumulation of silicon materials and the scale of stagnation are also gradually rising. In terms of
inventory, similar to the previous period, the increase in the overall inventory scale of the supply side of silicon materials is limited. In terms of the breakdown of the inventory structure, the supply of high-quality silicon materials from leading enterprises is tight, and the inventory is more likely to occur in non-leading enterprises, but the overall inventory scale of the industry is expected to range from 8 to 12 days, which is still within the acceptable range so far. On the contrary, it is the fluctuation factor of 24Q1 crystal pulling start-up level, and the interference and impact on the inventory scale of silicon materials deserve more attention.
Silicon wafer prices
Monday night in Gansu Province, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake, a serious disaster affecting the safety of local residents, as the crystal pulling link is relatively sensitive to the earthquake, InfoLink also in-depth understanding of the impact of the disaster on crystal pulling production, so far, although there are no related enterprises in Gansu Province. In neighboring areas such as Haidong, Xining and even Yinchuan, there are also reports of enterprises being affected. Fortunately, it is known that most of them are affected by the disconnection of the crystal pulling process, and most of them are not affected by the stewing pot. The overall impact is roughly estimated to be about 30-40 million pieces, and there is no obvious price fluctuation or impact.
This week, the average transaction price of silicon wafers is still falling slowly. In the P-type part, the transaction price of M10 has fallen to about 2 yuan per piece, and the clearing price of 1.9 yuan per piece has also been quoted by large manufacturers. The size of G12 has fallen to 3-3.1 yuan per piece. For the N-type part, although the demand of battery manufacturers for purchasing N-type batteries is still increasing, the transaction price also shows a slow decline. The size of M10 is down to about 2.2-2.3 yuan per piece; the price of G12 is also around 3.25-3.3 yuan per piece.
At present, the overall price trend remains pessimistic. At the same time, battery manufacturers continue to bear the low-grade battery prices, and are currently facing pressure on the purchase of silicon wafers. This week, the reduction of battery production continues to increase. While the demand for pulling goods shrinks slowly at the end of the year, the price of silicon wafers will continue to change depending on whether the production schedule is adjusted or not.
Cell price
This week, the transaction price of M10 P-type cells has stabilized slightly, and the price has been unable to fall, maintaining the bottom section consolidation of 0.38 yuan per watt, but the low price section can still see the emergence of 0.36-0.37 yuan per watt; As for the G12 size, the transaction price is still declining, falling back to the price level of 0.4 yuan per watt, narrowing the price gap with M10 in the past.
In the N-type battery part, the mainstream transaction price of TOPCon (M10) battery also fell slightly this week, falling around 0.47 yuan per watt, which is still not fully in place from the manufacturer's tentative quotation last week. However, most of the HJT (G12) cell manufacturers are self-used, and the takeout volume is still small, and the price of the high-efficiency part falls between 0.65-0.7 yuan per watt. Due to the continuous decline in demand for 182 PERC products, the price difference between TOPCon and PERC cells is maintained at about 0.09-0.1 yuan per watt.
The battery sector is now basically in a state of loss in production, the pessimistic atmosphere of manufacturers, and the production reduction plan continues to be introduced. Although the recent supply and demand situation is at the intersection of PERC decline and TOPCon climbing volume, this week's observation of manufacturers not only increased the reduction of PERC battery production, but also began to see the reduction planning for G12 size production line and the slowdown of TOPCon climbing, the industry is at a relatively low ebb. Faced with the excess supply and the continuous downward trend of component prices, how to survive the cycle and get rid of the burden of old production capacity is the thinking direction of enterprises.
Component price
Component price can not bear the pressure of inventory, there is still a downward trend. In the first quarter, the order rate of manufacturers is still not fully loaded, the first five is about 5-7%, and the order rate of middle and later manufacturers is generally not high. Under the situation of low demand visibility in the first quarter, the overall price decline has not stopped.
This week, the module price dropped, the domestic 182 PERC single-sided module price was about 0.89-1.05 yuan per watt, the average price moved down to 0.95-0.96 yuan, the new signing price was 0.92-0.93 yuan per watt, and a small number of transactions below 0.9 and 0.89 were indeed seen. The price of 210 PERC single-sided modules is about RMB 0.92-1.08 per watt, and the new signing price is close to RMB 0.95-1 per watt. The price difference between 210 PERC single-sided modules and 182 is gradually narrowing after the order is closed, and it is expected that the price will gradually approach 182. The price
of TOPCon is RMB 0.9-1.1 per watt. There are many orders in the early stage of execution, and the price is still about RMB 1.05-1.1 per watt. The subsequent new orders have begun to approach RMB 0.98-1.05 per watt, mainly close to RMB 0.97-0.98 per watt. The overseas price is about USD 0.125-0.135. The negotiation of next year's order has been discussed with a quotation of 0.9 or even 0.88 yuan per watt. The price
of HJT is deadlocked due to cost factors and the market has not yet been significantly opened. At present, the domestic price is about 1.25-1.3 yuan per watt, and the price of overseas orders is deadlocked at 0.160-0.170 dollars per watt.
Overseas, we can still hear that dumping prices continue to disrupt the market, and European stocks are still high, and there are signs of goods pulling back or re-exporting. Affected by the dumping price, the overall price of overseas has not stopped falling.
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