Looking forward to the future, due to the rapid shift of market demand to N-type products, the demand for PERC products has shrunk rapidly, which has also accelerated the replacement of equipment and production lines during this period. Small-size production lines, old production lines and M10 PERC production lines transformed by M6 size in the past have been facing elimination and clearance. At the same time, for new entrants, the current price and surplus pattern will also hinder the production of new players, which is expected to continue until the supply and demand rhythm of the industry is stable.
On the component side, the price difference between P/N in the first half of the year may indeed be due to the off-season of the market, and there is a trend of the same price competition in the low-price section, but considering the cost line, the strategy of low-price competition can not be sustained for a long time. The price
of
silicon materials this week, the market trading atmosphere of the silicon material link signing negotiations remained stable. The demand side of silicon materials is stimulated by the improvement of the level of pulling crystal production and the demand scale of catalytic materials is still increasing. On the supply side of silicon materials, the new monthly output of silicon materials in this month is about 67-68 GW, which is expected to increase by 6-7% on a month-on-month basis. The new output is mainly contributed by the new production capacity. As mentioned earlier, the supply scale of high-quality silicon materials has not increased significantly in the proportion of the supply structure. While the new production capacity is facing a ramp up, it still needs another time to complete the quality ramp up process.
The overall price continues to show a trend of differentiation. The corresponding price level of high-quality silicon materials of leading enterprises, that is, silicon materials that can meet the requirements of N-type crystal pulling material parameters, is in the range of 65-68 yuan per kilogram. The price of leading enterprises in this range also shows the differentiation characteristics of 1-2 yuan price difference between different enterprises. In contrast to the price level corresponding to the classification of other types of silicon materials, the price range of block materials is 61-64 yuan per kilogram, and the price range of granular silicon is 58-62 yuan per kilogram. The centralized demand for high-quality materials in the crystal pulling process is the most powerful support and determinant for the current price of silicon materials.
InfoLink closely observes the market trend, and will continue to focus on the supply of silicon materials and the differentiation of product categories, especially the growth capacity and potential change trend of the supply scale of silicon materials that can better meet the use and quality requirements of N-type crystal pulling.
Wafer prices
In the first week of December, the price of silicon wafers continued to decline, and the price trend of different sizes was divided, which highlighted the current demand fluctuations of various specifications. The inventory sector maintained steady development this week, with a slight rebound in the inventory of P-type silicon wafers, while the N-type silicon wafers remained flat without much change.
This week, the average transaction price of silicon wafers is still falling slowly. In the P-type part, the transaction price of M10 falls to about 2.2 yuan per wafer, with the low price even reaching 2.1 yuan per wafer and the G12 size maintaining 3.3 yuan per wafer. For the N-type part, the transaction price of M10 size also declined correspondingly. However, due to the purchase demand of battery manufacturers, the decline was differentiated with the P-type part, down to about 2.35 yuan per piece. However, there were still a few transactions at the average price of 2.4 yuan per piece last week. The price of G12 part was maintained at about 3.4 yuan per piece. Looking forward to
the end of the year, it is expected that the overall price trend will continue to differentiate. Affected by the production reduction and elimination of M10 PERC cells, the demand for procurement will continue to decline, and the corresponding price of M10 P-type silicon wafers will still decline at an organic rate, which will lead to the development of N-type price trend. In addition, for G12 P-type silicon wafers, after the closing of orders in November, the price is expected to loosen with the collapse of battery prices. In terms of G12N type, it is still expected to maintain relatively stable price changes.
With the arrival of December, the production scheduling of battery manufacturers is becoming clearer and clearer this month. There are different plans for production scheduling among manufacturers. In the professional battery factories, most manufacturers have made a substantial reduction in production for the PERC production line of M10. Many manufacturers even shut down their old production lines to avoid continuous cash losses; on the other hand, due to their better cost control ability and their own downstream channels to digest the battery output, the vertical factory integration enterprises still maintain a high level of production, and the overall monthly output of the battery sector is still 61-62 GW.
This week, cell transaction prices are still falling, P-type part, M10 cell transaction prices fell to last week's low-price transaction section, about 0.4 yuan per watt has become a large number of transaction prices; The short-term mismatch between supply and demand returned to normal in early December after the completion of domestic projects and the centralized procurement of large-scale cell orders, which led the price of G12 cells to make up for the drop to a reasonable range. The mainstream transaction price dropped to about 0.45 yuan per watt, a drop of up to 22%. The price difference has also returned to the range of 0.05 yuan per watt.
In the N-type battery part, the price of M10 TOPCon battery is maintained at about 0.49-0.5 yuan per watt this week. However, most of the manufacturers of G12 HJT cells are self-used, and the takeout volume is still small, and the price of the high-efficiency part falls between 0.65-0.7 yuan per watt. Due to the continuous decline in demand for M10 PERC products, the price difference between TOPCon and PERC batteries has widened to about 0.09-0.1 yuan per watt.
Looking forward to the future, due to the rapid shift of market demand to N-type products, the demand for PERC products has shrunk rapidly, which has also accelerated the replacement of equipment and production lines during this period. Small-size production lines, old production lines and M10 PERC production lines transformed by M6 size in the past have been facing elimination and clearance. At the same time, for new entrants, the current price and surplus pattern will also hinder the production of new players, which is expected to continue until the supply and demand rhythm of the industry is stable.
Component prices
are temporarily stable this week, mainly because projects at home and abroad are beginning to end and gradually entering the off-season. This week, the market price gap is still very obvious, manufacturers have different strategies, considering that the orders signed in January next year are not yet full, some manufacturers have insufficient orders in hand, and some manufacturers have considered the cost level as a benchmark. The price of 182 PERC single-sided modules is about 0.9-1.03 yuan per watt, and the price of new contracts is 0.92-0.93 yuan per watt, and a small amount has begun to talk about less than 0.9. The spot list does not show unconventional shipments and is still on sale, with spot prices ranging from 0.7 X to 0.8 X RMB per watt. For the time being, the price of 210 PERC single-sided modules is strong. The current price is RMB 1.03-1.1 per watt, and the new price is RMB 0.95-1 per watt. The price difference between 210 PERC single-sided modules and 182 is gradually narrowing after the end of the order. It is expected that the next price will gradually approach 182. The price
of TOPCon is RMB 0.9-1.2 per watt. At present, the price of executing more orders in the early stage is still about RMB 1.08-1.18 per watt. The subsequent new orders have begun to approach RMB 0.98-1.05 per watt, mainly close to RMB 0.97-0.98 per watt. The negotiation of next year's order has been discussed with a quotation of 0.9 or even 0.88 yuan per watt. The price difference between P/N in the first half of the year may indeed be due to the off-season of the market, and there is a trend of competition at the same price in the low-price section, but considering the cost line, the strategy of low-price competition can not be sustained for a long time. The overall price
of HJT is declining slowly due to cost considerations. At present, the domestic price is about 1.25-1.35 yuan per watt, while the price of overseas orders is deadlocked at 0.160-0.170 dollars per watt. How to compete with TOPCon price will also be a major issue next year.
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