从海螺水泥定增西部建设来看未来水泥行业格局

2021-12-23 10:09:19

对于中国水泥产业来说,多次大规模合并重组后,可能会迎来一轮新的变革。

2021年12月21日晚间,西部建设发布公告,拟非公开发行股票280,016,005股,发行价格为7元/股。其中,海螺水泥作为战略投资者,拟认购股票数量为251,444,577股,占整体发行股份数近9成,剩余部分为中建西南院为关联方中建集团所控制的下属企业认购,认购数量为28,571,428股。

合计募集资金19.6亿元扣除发行费用后将全部用于补充流动资金及偿还银行贷款。

对于本次发行,西部建设方面称,海螺水泥是中国水泥行业龙头,具有生产成本、运输成本、投资成本等方面的优势,且海螺水泥与西部建设在产业链上下游契合度较高,此次通过非公开发行引入海螺水泥作为战略投资者,将会全面提升公司实力,且未来还会展开更深层次的合作。包括探索“水泥、砂石+ 混凝土+消费市场+技术服务+互联网”的全产业链发展模式,构建新的商业合作模式,促进双方共同发展。

此次定增完成后,海螺水泥将持有西部建设16.30%的股份,成为其第二大股东。12月22日开盘,西部建设一字涨停。

海螺水泥主要从事水泥及商品熟料的生产和销售,是A股水泥行业上市公司中的龙头企业。

这并不是海螺水泥第一次战略投资其他上市公司,此前,海螺水泥还曾举牌亚泰集团。今年10月8日盘后,亚泰集团发布公告称,2021年7月7日至10月8日海螺水泥以自有资金通过集中竞价方式买入公司股份,截至10月8日,共买入上市公司1.62亿股股份,占已发行股份数量的比例为5%。

亚泰集团列中国水泥熟料产能20强的第12位,具有完整的上下游产业链优势及石灰石矿等资源优势和品牌优势。并且在房地产和医药行业也有所布局,此外,亚泰集团还持有东北证券30.81%的股权,是东北证券的第一大股东。

在此之前,海螺水泥还在几个月的时间内持续增持港股西部水泥,从七月至11月之间,持股比例由21.90%增持至25.02%。

据不完全统计,自2006年至今,海螺水泥买过的股票包括巢东股份(现名称新力金融)、冀东水泥、 祁连山、 福建水泥华新水泥、江西水泥(现名称为万年青)、 同力水泥、青松建化等。

从其历史我们可以看出,海螺水泥投资的基本上是自己的同行。并且都是在低位抄底,然后高位减持套现。

以冀东水泥为例,海螺水泥曾在2008至2014年之间连续抄底冀东水泥股票,最高时占冀东水泥总股本的19.84%。随后在2015年至2017年之间,冀东水泥股价到达高位,海螺水泥对其进行了减持。在2017年上半年,海螺水泥半年报显示,其投资收益达18.7亿元。其中,减持冀东水泥、*ST青松共计实现17.2亿元收益。

与此前低吸高抛手法不同的是,此次海螺水泥是作为战略投资者入股西部建设,根据西部建设公告,此次战略合作期限为三年,合作期限届满后,经双方协商一致可延长。且海螺水泥会委派一名非独立董事,参与西部建设公司治理及董事会决策。

这是否是海螺水泥向全国各地迈出脚步的开端呢?

水泥属于同质化商品,且想要实现水泥差异化几乎是不可能的。所以现有水泥公司之间的竞争基本都是价格竞争,而且水泥的客户的转换成本非常低,例如有顾客想要购买水泥,他不会考虑生产商是海螺水泥或者是上峰水泥

只会在意哪家的水泥便宜。有可能今天在买海螺水泥,但明天上峰水泥更便宜了,就会去购买上峰水泥。所以水泥厂商之间的价格竞争是非常激烈的。

当前各家水泥厂商的主要策略也就是总成本领先策略,不断建立规模优势,降低单位成本。随着生产成本的不断压缩,降低运输成本也成为了成本策略中最重要的一环。

各家水泥厂商在实际生产销售中所面对的最多得问题就是:有可能你的生产成本是低于同行的,但在运送至其他区域后加上运输成本,你的总成本就比同行高了。

在经过市场化竞争的发展后,当前我国各家水泥厂商也是以区域划分格局。

例如海螺水泥就是长江三角洲、珠江三角洲区域最大的水泥企业,在这两个区域有着绝对的话语权。亚泰集团水泥产销的重心主要在东北地区;西部水泥则是陕西、新疆、贵州最大的水泥生产企业;万年青在江西;上峰水泥是华东地区最大的水泥生产企业等等。

在早年的竞争中,海螺水泥在长江沿岸石灰石资源丰富的地区集中新建大型熟料基地,依靠水运大幅降低运输成本,且依靠长江延伸覆盖区域,形成“熟料—长江—粉磨站”的“T型战略”。

最终依靠“T型战略”建立起来的成本优势将竞争对手排除在外。

依靠长三角地区的巨大水泥市场,海螺水泥逐步建立起了规模优势,最终也成为了A股水泥上市公司的龙头企业。

但是,运输成本的问题始终限制着海螺向其他区域扩张的步伐,若是去其他区域直接建厂生产水泥,又无法较当地的本土水泥企业建立规模优势,成本降不下来。

只能消化本土的存量市场,利润增长空间有限。这也是水泥上市公司估值普遍偏低的根本原因。

此次海螺水泥战略投资西部建设,一方面打通上下游,一方面能切入西部建设的水泥业务。以下游为依托,西部建设的自有水泥为基础,逐步切入四川、湖北、湖南等地的水泥市场。

近年来,政府也多次发布政策,通过推进联合重组压减过剩水泥产能。此后,水泥产业多次上演整合收购,先后有中国建筑材料集团与中国中材集团合并,金隅集团和冀东水泥重组等等。

对于中国水泥产业来说,多次大规模合并重组后,可能会迎来一轮新的变革。

水泥制造业对建筑行业的依赖性较强,具体明显的周期性,受国民经济景气度和城市化进程等宏观因素的影响较大。随着国内房地产行业及固定资产投资的放缓,水泥行业的竞争压力在不断加大。

未来,随着房地产、基建投资的放缓,以及碳中和、能耗双控带来的结构优化,水泥需求的下滑已经是个必然趋势,这也将倒逼整个行业进行存量优化,未来水泥行业也将进一步整合、集中。

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Correlation

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

Eliminating backward and inefficient production capacity is one of the important measures for the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the cement industry, as well as the needs of the enterprise's own development. Generally speaking, this will help the cement industry to promote structural optimization, improve production efficiency, reduce resource consumption and enhance brand image, and will also have a positive impact on the green development and competitiveness of the industry.

2024-10-15 10:17:37

Industry insiders said that the merger and reorganization of the cement industry is the only way to transform and upgrade the industry and achieve high-quality development. At present, the problem of overcapacity in China's cement industry is prominent, which seriously affects the overall efficiency and sustainable development of the industry. Through mergers and reorganizations, we can effectively eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the industrial layout, improve industry concentration, and make room for the healthy development of the industry.

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Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

Gathering the wisdom of the four seas, condensing the strength of the heroes, the two-day conference is full of dry goods, which will surely make every guest return with a full load, turn pressure into power, and jointly promote the new journey of ultra-low emission transformation of Zhejiang cement industry towards brilliance!

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2024-07-12 15:50:01

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2024-07-12 15:40:36

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2024-06-20 16:33:57

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2024-05-24 15:36:32

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2024-05-16 09:22:44

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2024-05-10 09:27:37

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2024-04-19 16:57:31

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2024-03-29 18:00:30

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2024-03-14 09:46:52

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2023-09-12 09:26:59

9月6日,海螺水泥总经理李群峰表示,市场份额是企业可持续发展的基础。8月海螺水泥高层表示,支持错峰维持行业盈利,但份额是底线。

2023-09-08 11:14:32

9月6日,在海螺水泥上半年业绩说明会上,海螺水泥执行董事、总经理李群峰表示,市场份额是企业可持续发展的基础。接下来,海螺将坚持“份额是基础,盈利是目的”的思路,维持合理的市场份额,努力提升经营效益。

2023-09-08 09:10:25

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.