[评论]从上市公司报告看水泥区域性行情差异

2023-10-30 19:14:58

按六大区域划分,上市公司在华北、华东以及中南地区水泥营收总体降幅较大。其中,华东和中南地区价格竞争充分,降价风险已基本释放,后续价格存在回升空间,但节奏仍有待观察……

上市公司水泥业务总体缩量,华北营收降幅居首

2023年,受房地产景气度下行影响,国内水泥行业总体面临需求收缩压力,市场竞争明显加剧,市场价格出现大幅回撤。截至10月底,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)由年初的140.82点降至109.58点,年内累计下跌22.18%,同比跌幅达到29.15%。

图1:2023年全国水泥价格指数持续走低(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

在市场价格不断探底的过程当中,国内各大区域由于下游需求变化幅度以及市场竞争烈度的不同,实际水泥行情存在一定差异性。

从财报数据来看,东北区域上市公司水泥业务营收总体接近去年同期水平;西南和西北区域水泥营收降幅分别在9.01%和10.61%左右;中南和华东区域水泥营收同比分别下滑13.35%和15.57%;华北区域水泥营收同比降幅居首,达到20.77%。

图2:2023年六大区域上市公司水泥业务营收及同比增速(亿元,%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/),因不同上市公司区域划分存在差异,本文部分数据存在重复统计的情况

具体而言,东北区域受去年疫情影响,增长基数偏低,加之辽宁省推行全面振兴政策,基建投资较为活跃,故冀东水泥、山水水泥以及亚泰集团在东北市场的水泥销量均实现同比增长,对冲水泥价格下跌带来的影响,使得整体营收基本与上年同期持平。

华北地区需求恢复不及预期,局部受外来水泥冲击严重,当地水泥熟料生产线产能发挥率偏低,上市公司水泥业务量价齐跌,冀东水泥以及天山股份在华北区域的营收跌幅均在20%上下,成为上市公司总体营收跌幅最大的区域。

华东和中南是国内水泥消费量最大的两个区域,但由于年内多地出现房地产施工放缓的情况,华东和中南地区水泥需求表现同样不及预期。据中国水泥网大数据研究院估计,1-9月中南和华东地区水泥产量同比分别减少了约11%和4%,降幅高于国内其他区域。在此背景下,市场份额成为水泥企业的首要目标,华东和中南地区进入充分竞争状态,价格跌至平均成本线以下,总体营收减量高于其他区域。即使是在竞争中占据优势的海螺水泥,在华东和中南地区的营收总额相较于去年同期也下滑了8%以上。

西南和西北地区内部需求差异明显,新疆、青海、西藏以及陕南等区域,年内基建项目落地施工的增量较为明显,水泥需求表现良好,上市公司在相关市场的销售量均出现同比增长。然而,在甘肃、贵州以及陕西关中等区域,由于新增项目不足,水泥销量普遍有所下滑。总体而言,西北和西南局部需求存在亮点,加之部分区域交通不便,受其他区域的价格冲击较小,水泥价格降幅相对偏缓,上市公司水泥业务营收降幅低于国内其他区域。

表1:上市公司水泥业务营收同比变化幅度排名(%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

中南、华东价格降幅较大,风险基本充分释放

截至10月底,中南和华东地区水泥价格指数分别报收100.81点和108.44点,同比跌幅分别达到35.97%和29.54%,跌幅领先其他地区;其次是华北和西南地区,水泥价格指数同比跌幅分别为29.03%和26.03%;东北和西北地区价格跌幅稍小,同比分别下跌20.22%和16.38%。

图3:2023年国内六大区域水泥价格指数变化情况(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

从上市公司财报数据以及地区水泥价格指数来看,目前国内受基建拉动作用较强的西部以及北方省份,年内水泥市场运行状况相对较好。同时,市场化较为充分、以往依靠房建市场作为主导需求的地区,市场摩擦增多,企业竞争区域白热化。总体而言,目前水泥价格下降幅度呈现出南强于北、东强于西的趋势。

中南和华东地区水泥成交均价降至历史低位,甚至一度跌破2009年基期水平,市场竞争的剧烈程度显著高于其他地区,降价风险基本释放完毕,反弹空间较大,但价格走势取决于需求恢复情况,目前仍不乐观,后续或将进入较长的磨底期。

华北地区水泥行情不佳,水泥价格指数高位回落,但由于当地产能集中度高以及环保管控严格,价格指数的绝对值仍位于第二梯队。

西北、东北以及西南地区水泥价格指数回撤幅度较小,其支撑主要来自于政策的强度和持续性。在基建项目持续释放的背景下,水泥价格变化幅度相对平稳,但若新旧项目衔接出现困难,存在进一步拉低水泥价格的可能性。

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