回升难言乐观 建材工业依旧危机四伏

2016-08-08 09:56:04

今年3月以来,全国累计水泥产量保持平稳增长态势,水泥需求表现好于预期。业界人士表示,上半年全国水泥市场价格回升只是阶段性的变化,且6月末价格相比去年同期仍有较大差距,因此上半年回升不可持续,下半年形势不容乐观。

  据国家统计局数据,今年1~5月,全国规模以上水泥产量8.9亿吨,同比增长3.7%,增速继续回升。5月全国单月水泥产量2.3亿吨,同比增长2.9%。与4月相比,需求继续好转,全国月均水泥产量达到2.27亿吨,较上月增长1035万吨。今年3月以来,全国累计水泥产量保持平稳增长态势,水泥需求表现好于预期。同样,作为建材行业三大主材之一的玻璃行业受房地产回温带动,在经历1~2月的低迷后,3~5月也步入上行期,总体呈现上行趋势。

  水泥玻璃市场震荡上行

  中国水泥协会相关人士指出,2015年全国房地产行业房屋新开工面积同比大幅下降14%,房地产开发投资增速创新低,因而水泥企业对2016年一季度需求预期十分悲观。春节期间下游需求萎缩至全年最低点,基于相对悲观的预期,一方面全国水泥企业不断通过价格竞争手段争夺市场份额;另一方面,东北、华北、西北、华东等区域水泥企业大规模进行错峰生产和停窑限产,导致1~2月全国水泥产量同比下滑8.2%。

  直到进入3月后,水泥需求出现了明显的季节性回暖,更重要的是,房地产行业持续回温,需求恢复速度超出预期,水泥供应却与之脱节,3~4月华东等重要市场出现短暂的供不应求局面,加之一季度全行业出现亏损,致使水泥企业转向盈利为重的心态,全国市场上行气氛持续加重。

  虽然我国水泥需求保持增长,但区域价格表现各异。3月中下旬开始华东价格率先复苏,4月末华北、华南价格提涨,5月国内水泥市场涨跌各异,华东开始回落,西北价格上行,中南、华北和东北以稳为主,后期华南和京津冀有望持续上涨。

  同样,受春节假期及2015年玻璃市场表现不佳影响,国内浮法玻璃市场下游加工厂赶工期结束后停工较往年偏早,原片囤货量较往年亦有所下滑,加之年前各地生产商优惠政策较多,市场价格呈现下滑走势。

  但节后由于纯碱价格大幅上涨,致使玻璃原片生产成本上升,3月市场进入稳定的微涨模式,华北、华东、华南市场均呈现震荡走势,削减库存成为厂家主要任务,多数厂家在4月底库存基本削减至正常偏低水平,适逢5月深加工市场小旺季,原片刚需旺盛,加之持续下滑的库存支撑,国内原片市场涨声一片。但随着农忙、雨季等利空影响扩大,玻璃市场呈现稳多、涨少、个别小幅回落的运行态势。

  业界人士表示,上半年全国水泥市场价格回升只是阶段性的变化,且6月末价格相比去年同期仍有较大差距,因此上半年回升不可持续,下半年形势不容乐观。且当前去产能的效果也直接影响到行业的后续发展,因此水泥消费量逐年下降仍是行业不可回避的长期趋势。

  而上半年浮法玻璃市场整体走势好于预期,整体库存水平低于往年同期为下半年市场价格上涨奠定了基础,市场拉涨情绪较高,淡旺交接之际市场价格或能避免大幅下降。

  去产能仍是重头戏

  据水泥协会统计,2016年上半年全国新型干法熟料线共投产7条,新增熟料产能945.5万吨(按年运转310天计),换算成水泥产能则是1229.15万吨左右。与去年同期相比,2016年新增熟料产能大幅下滑50.4%,表明在国家政策引导下,水泥行业供应端增长已经大幅放缓。

  今年全国部分省份水泥行业仍将有计划地进行淘汰落后产能工作,如宁夏计划两年内淘汰过剩产能500万吨,河北则计划今年削减水泥产能200万吨。从企业自身来看,中国建材集团旗下南方水泥西南水泥正在逐步关停2500t/d及以下熟料线,积极引导区域内限产,以推动行业健康发展。

  但值得注意的是,虽然国家从2009年开始着手化解水泥行业产能过剩矛盾,但在大力淘汰落后产能的同时,新增产能却没有得到真正的遏制。部分地方政府和企业一边淘汰,一边继续新上水泥项目,在产能置换政策上大打擦边球,产能增量置换的现象十分常见。据统计,“十二五”期间,国家累计淘汰落后水泥产能7亿吨,其中淘汰落后熟料产能仅3亿吨,而“十二五”期间累计新增新型干法水泥熟料产能6.9亿吨,扣除淘汰量后净增熟料产能3.9亿吨,经过换算,则实际净增水泥产能6.5亿吨。

  去产能无疑是一个长期且艰巨的过程,国家层面、行业层面均对此有十分清醒的认识,遏制新增产能、加大过剩产能淘汰的力度正在加强。

  玻璃行业,截至6月全国浮法玻璃生产线共计296条,在产225条,日熔量共计148970吨,日熔量较年初仅增加40吨,整体产能基本得到控制,但仍难以有效削减。

  尽管近年来通过提高行业准入门槛、加强环保监管等措施使产能得到一定控制,但是浮法玻璃行业由于本身资金投入大,同时也是当地税收、就业重要支柱产业,不免会出现政策执行不到位等情况,因此行业产能过剩问题化解道路仍然漫长。

  中国建筑材料联合会会长乔龙德曾表示,“去产能”是水泥行业最紧迫的事情。他认为,中国水泥市场的需求在23亿吨左右,市场用量依然巨大,但水泥行业利润下滑主要是产能过剩背景下企业恶性竞争无序跌价的结果,所以加强行业自律是当务之急。

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The rising price of raw materials directly leads to the rising production cost of concrete (mortar) in Dongguan City. In view of the large fluctuation of raw material prices, the Association reminds all member units to strengthen communication with customers and inform customers of the fluctuation of raw material prices in a timely manner in order to avoid misunderstandings and disputes between supply and demand.

2024-11-01 11:56:06

Looking forward to the future, we still need to continue our efforts in breaking through the existing clinker system, innovating the design of new low-carbon clinker (new clinker), breaking through the time lag and multi-scale barriers, building a digital system without "gap" in the whole process, maximizing the value of data, and supporting low-carbon in the whole process (time-sharing power consumption, coal consumption, low-carbon ratio, etc.).

2024-10-29 14:07:23

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

The introduction of the policy is a signal, which reveals the government's determination, but the real implementation still needs the joint efforts of all parties. Enterprises should respond positively, build self-discipline mechanism, start from themselves, and reduce excessive competition.

2024-08-07 10:54:49

Tao Congxi mainly analyzed the current situation of carbon emission in cement industry, the technical path of carbon emission reduction at home and abroad, the "3C" carbon neutralization technology in cement industry, and the "3C" carbon neutralization practice cases in cement industry.

2024-04-03 13:58:22

According to the annual report of Jinyu Group in 2023, the company's operating income was about 107.956 billion yuan, an increase of 4.99% over the previous year, but the net profit returned to the mother dropped by 97.92% to about 25.2628 million yuan, and the loss of non-net profit deducted expanded to 2.028 billion yuan. The decline in performance is mainly related to the large provision for impairment of assets, especially the inventory impairment of real estate projects. The decline in investment in real estate development across the country has affected the company's real estate development business. Cement production reached a new low, and the company's comprehensive sales of cement and clinker increased, but the gross profit margin decreased. In order to seek new markets, BBMG Group invested in the home and promoted the growth of the whole business. Faced with greater debt pressure, the company plans to optimize the debt structure by issuing debt financing instruments, and use idle funds to invest in financial management to improve capital efficiency.

2024-04-03 09:25:12

At present, the cement industry is facing serious internal and external troubles, which can be said to be "the autumn of life and death".

2024-04-02 17:13:02

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

At present, the international political and economic situation is complex and changeable, which has a great impact on the cement industry. Cement enterprises, especially many member enterprises from emerging countries, still have to face such issues as "how to attach equal importance to social responsibility and shareholder returns, how to balance sustainable development and short-term survival, and how to coordinate overcapacity and transformation and upgrading".

2024-03-11 09:38:39

Ignatius, Director-General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industries, Ministry of Industry Warsito explained that there is overcapacity in the cement industry in almost all regions except Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Papua Maluku. "The largest percentage of overcapacity is in Java, at more than 55.4%," Warsito added.

2024-03-02 18:16:25

On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" in Hangzhou. During the conference, awards will be given to the top 100 cement and supplier enterprises. At the same time, experts and scholars, China Railway and other construction units will be invited to discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future!

2024-02-27 09:41:58

The author believes that the expansion of the "concrete city" model also reflects the change of the unequal relationship between the North and the South in the world. In the past, multinational companies grabbed a lot of investment and trade gains, but under the new capitalism of "combination of government and business" in Africa, local political and business elites have risen and formed alliance networks, among which the best have even begun to launch reverse m ergers and reshape "North-South relations". With the retreat of neoliberal influence, a new governance model seems to be emerging in West Africa: the government centralizes the promotion of infrastructure projects, enterprises respond to the call to speed up the landing, and the people vote according to the results of their achievements.

2024-02-07 09:41:37

Focus on reducing cement clinker production capacity in areas where limestone resources are scarce and air quality is poor, and support clinker production enterprises to carry out layout outside the province and transfer to key construction areas determined by the province. We will further study and implement the integrated withdrawal plan for cement clinker production lines with a capacity of 2500 tons per day or less.

2024-01-26 14:20:19

In 2023, Turkish cement prices rose, and downstream concrete products also rose, stimulated by the earthquake. In 2023, the national output is expected to exceed 81 million tons, a record high.

2024-01-22 14:04:10

The price of cement in Chongqing has dropped; the cement industry will be in a difficult period in the next ten years; "rigid capacity reduction" is the feasible solution to resolve overcapacity.

2024-01-12 14:45:33

作为行业龙头,大型水泥企业肩负着引领行业方向、推动行业进步的责任。面临“需求下滑、效益萎缩、产能过剩”等行业困局,水泥巨头们又是如何“出招”的呢?

2023-12-29 14:53:53

难关未过,未来已来。接下来,让我们一起回顾2023年水泥行业热点事件,总结过往,戮力前行。

2023-12-28 11:49:29

9月12日,由中国水泥网主办的“2023水泥‘双碳’大会暨第十届中国水泥节能环保技术交流大会”在河南郑州隆重召开。

2023-09-12 18:08:43

8月22日,自然资源保护协会(NRDC)与中国建材机械工业协会、天津市硅酸盐学会、中建研科技股份有限公司在京联合发布三个报告.

2023-08-24 09:08:58

从水泥价格、水泥产销量、水泥进出口等方面,分析12个主要国家水泥市场的具体情况。

2023-08-07 16:59:35

在保证水泥产品质量的前提下,推广高固废掺量的低碳水泥生产技术,引导水泥企业使用非碳酸盐原料制水泥。推进水泥窑协同处置垃圾衍生可燃物。

2023-08-03 17:33:19

水泥企业如何在生存和发展中找到平衡点?寻找新的机遇和利润增长点?

2023-07-08 14:38:57

精彩纷呈的会议令现场嘉宾连连称道,7月7日,“2023中国水泥节能与新能源发展大会”将继续进行!

2023-07-06 18:06:22

依托自身在低碱水泥等方面的优势,宛北水泥在风云变幻的时代浪潮中,找到了属于自己的路。

2023-07-05 11:35:37

通过深入推进熟料综合能耗强度和能源消费总量的“双控”,实现供需平衡和有效减碳,既能促进节能减排,为地方政府的产业升级提供能耗指标“空间”,又能将供给侧结构性改革落地,为水泥行业真正去产能,还可为下一步的水泥行业进入全国碳交易市场和“碳排放双控”工作打好基础。

2023-07-03 09:56:20

6月3日,2023中国混凝土与水泥制品行业大会在南京隆重召开。

2023-06-03 21:10:14

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,河北地区部分水泥市场需求表现一般,企业出货量不高,前期价格上调无法全面落实。京津地区水泥价格保持平稳,销量偏弱,价格维持低位,降价空间不大。

2023-05-19 17:10:05

拉丁美洲主要国家的水泥行业已经稳定,在大多数情况下达到了2019年的生产水平。然而,在巴西和墨西哥,不利的经济形势导致建筑材料价格上涨,以至于国内需求放缓。

2023-04-26 11:16:44

4月25日,由中国水泥网举办的“第四届中国水泥智能化高峰论坛”在湖南长沙隆重召开。

2023-04-25 18:24:31

4月24日,由中国水泥网主办的“中国水泥行业绿色发展高峰论坛暨超洁净排放技术交流大会”在湖南长沙顺利召开。

2023-04-24 17:35:12

4月19日,河北省发布工业领域碳达峰实施方案。

2023-04-20 11:55:24

报告显示,报告期内西藏天路营业收入38.45亿元,较去年同期的57.77亿元,减少19.32亿元,减幅33.44%。

2023-04-19 14:30:01

骨料在当代生活中不可或缺,是继空气、水之后用量最大的资源,必须将骨材作为国家战略性资源进行系统管理。

2023-04-11 16:01:43

近期,水泥行业龙头企业密集发布2022年财报,业绩表现不佳、净利润大幅下滑成为普遍现象。

2023-04-07 10:30:30

近日,浙江省经信厅、发改委、生态环境厅联合印发《浙江省工业领域碳达峰实施方案的通知》。

2023-03-08 11:18:31

在水泥量价齐跌、成本高企的影响下,2022年全省水泥行业经营效益严重下滑。

2023-02-20 09:12:05

传统的大宗建材产品“水玻陶”产量已达峰值,市场需求总量及消费拐点基本确认

2023-02-19 13:38:36

近日,中共河南省委、河南省人民政府印发《河南省碳达峰实施方案》。

2023-02-06 10:59:42

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.1.13)

2023-01-13 17:20:17

记者多方采访了解到,2023年随着上游地产景气度开始恢复、基建拉动效应释放,水泥需求有望迎来正增长,行业景气度将逐步恢复。但也有业内人士提醒,2023年水泥企业价格、利润较难有乐观表现,但降幅会比2022年收窄。

2023-01-06 09:24:04

12月22日,湖南工信厅发布《湖南省工业领域碳达峰实施方案》的通知。

2022-12-23 13:39:54

11月30日,安徽省经信厅发布《安徽省工业领域碳达峰实施方案》

2022-12-03 13:32:34

重庆市作为国内面积最大的直辖市,是长江经济带的西部中心枢纽。2021年重庆市商混产量占全国的比重为2.66%,人均商混消费量为2.54方,在西南地区排名第一。本文从供需结构、产能分布以及竞争情况等方面对重庆市商混行业进行了分析,具体内容如下……

2022-12-01 10:26:30

在城镇化进程放缓的大背景下,国内预拌混凝土需求总量面临下滑预期,加之受到“双碳”目标约束,要求行业从追求量的扩张转向追求质的提升,绿色高质量发展成为行业共识……

2022-11-10 13:30:27

近三年来,百年变局和世纪疫情相互叠加,我国混凝土与水泥制品发展也面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力。在此背景下,中国混凝土与水泥制品行业迈向高质量发展的步伐依然坚定,绿色、低碳、智能化等发展理念深入人心,全行业正在加快重构产业发展的新格局。

2022-10-19 09:20:09

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2022.10.14)

2022-10-14 17:45:26

华润水泥如何推动ESG发展。我谈三个“共”,即“与环境共生”“与社会共享”“与员工共进”。

2022-09-23 14:37:39

乘风使力正扬帆,绿色发展绘新篇。未来,水泥行业也将持续踩准时代的鼓点,深入推进节能降耗改造,积极探索减污降碳路径,不断用智能化、数字化技术为企业转型赋能,让“灰色”水泥的“绿色”梦底色更亮、成色更足!

2022-09-08 09:15:26