Selected | Chongqing cement prices fall; the cement industry in the next decade will be a difficult period; "rigid capacity" is a feasible solution to resolve overcapacity.

2024-01-12 14:45:33

The price of cement in Chongqing has dropped; the cement industry will be in a difficult period in the next ten years; "rigid capacity reduction" is the feasible solution to resolve overcapacity.

< Market Overview & gt;

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. Cement prices in the main city market of Chongqing continue to fall ( click on the title to see the full text). Leading

enterprises have continuously lowered cement prices in the main city market, and now they have fallen back to the level before the price increase in mid-December. In recent days, some enterprises continue to explore about 20-30 yuan/ton on this basis, while the rest of the industry temporarily wait and see.

2. 2024 Cement Industry Outlook

In 2023, the average price of the cement industry will decline, the demand will decline, and the profit will drop sharply. Tibet and Xinjiang have shown outstanding performance, with demand increasing by more than 50% and industry efficiency improving. Market pressure is expected to remain high in 2024, but the downward trend will slow down. On the demand side, it is expected that the drag of real estate will weaken, infrastructure will still be pulled, cement demand will decline slightly, and the decline will continue to narrow.

3. East China: near the Spring Festival, the demand is gradually declining, and the price of concrete is stable (1.08-1.12)

near the Spring Festival, the demand is gradually declining, and the price of concrete is stable. The market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is mainly stable, while the market demand in Anhui is still low. The price of concrete in Fujian is temporarily stable, and the cement clinker is planned to stagger the peak for about 50 days in the first quarter. The market in Jiangxi and Shandong is weak, and the demand and sales are weakened.

<; Today's Focus >;

1. Zhang Zhenkun: The cement industry will face a difficult period in the next ten years (click the title to view the full text)

. In 2023, the cement industry will face the challenges of declining demand and low prices. It is expected that cement production will continue to decline in 2024. Prices may also remain depressed in the first half of the year and are expected to improve in the second half. In the long run, the cement industry will be in a difficult period in the next decade, and the demand will gradually decline.

2. cement cold and warm big man talks | Yang Dan: "Rigid to capacity" is the feasible solution

to resolve overcapacity. At present, the cement industry is facing the dilemma of intensified contradiction between supply and demand and low price shocks, which is rooted in overcapacity. Yang Dan believes that "rigid capacity" is a practical way to solve this problem. Capacity replacement, merger and reorganization are important means to resolve overcapacity in the current industry, but there is no consensus among enterprises in the process of replacement, merger and reorganization, so there is great resistance to "rational capacity removal".

3. Peak-staggering replacement of

carbide slag cement enterprises in Xinjiang from 2023 to 2024 The cement clinker production enterprises in the Shitu area of Wuchang will shut down kilns for 212 days and open kilns for 154 days from 2023 to 2024. Eight carbide slag cement clinker production enterprises replaced the index of 2.8 million tons of clinker and opened kilns throughout the year; seven non-carbide slag cement enterprises replaced the index of 2.8 million tons of clinker and opened kilns for no more than 54 days on average throughout the year. The specific time of opening kilns shall be reported to Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association and the Office of Industry and Information Technology of the Autonomous Region for filing.

4. Ten departments jointly issued the implementation plan for the high-quality development of green building materials industry!

On January 10, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ten departments jointly issued a notice on the implementation plan of high-quality development of green building materials industry. By 2030, the level of "energy saving, emission reduction, low carbon, safety, convenience and recyclability" in the whole life cycle of green building materials will be further improved, and a number of internationally renowned green building materials manufacturers and product brands will be formed.

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Correlation

In recent years, due to the influence of capital factors, the number of suspended and delayed construction projects has increased significantly, which has dragged down the demand of cement market. In 2025, with the support of a more active fiscal policy, some projects may be restarted, bringing a certain increase in demand for the cement industry.