[原创]新疆水泥行业的回顾与趋势展望

2013-10-30 13:17:08

新疆自2000年西部大开发战略实施以来,全疆经济发展取得巨大成果,并且未来经济仍将处于大跨步发展阶段,成为难得的发展旺盛之地。然而随着近几年新型干法生产线的大肆扩展和集中投产,新疆水泥市场开始由供不应求转向供给过剩,在未来几年或将都面临着供大于求的失衡状态,行业盈利水平或将受到严峻考验。

  新疆的经济发展与全国其他省份自发性增长有所不同,它不仅是一项经济任务,更是一项政治任务。自2000年西部大开发战略实施以来,全疆经济发展取得巨大成果,并且未来经济仍将处于大跨步发展阶段,成为难得的发展旺盛之地。然而随着近几年新型干法生产线的大肆扩展和集中投产,新疆水泥市场开始由供不应求转向供给过剩,在未来几年或将都面临着供大于求的失衡状态,行业盈利水平或将受到严峻考验。

一、近年来新疆水泥行业回顾

  当前新疆进入了经济社会快速发展、综合实力明显增强。自实施西部大开发战略10年来,新疆地区生产总值年均增长10.3%,经济发展上了一个大台阶。2009年,尽管受到国际金融危机的严重冲击和乌鲁木齐“7•5”事件的影响,新疆仍实现了8%以上的经济增长。2011和2012年新疆地区的经济均以12%的增速保持稳定增长,高出同期全国水平2.7和4.3个百分点。在全国经济增速开始进入下行通道之时,中央为促进新疆“保增长、保民生、保稳定”提供了一系列的倾斜性政策和大笔扶持资金。未来新疆宏观经济向好,发展潜力逐步提升。加大固定资产投资成为推动当地经济发展的重要手段。房地产开发和基础设施建设是拉动新疆固定资产投资和相关产业发展的重要行业,也是水泥产品的主要消费市场,对水泥行业的发展有着重要作用。

图1:新疆地区自西部大开发以来获得稳定增长,未来发展潜力逐步提升

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  从2009年开始新疆地区的固定资产投资增幅呈现直线上升走势,较以往低于20%的投资增速有明显提升,尤其2011和2012年投资增速分别高达37.60%、31.80%,这与同期全国固定资产投资增速逐步放缓形成明显对比。近年来,新疆地区的房地产开发走势基本与全国走势保持一致。受国家房地产调控政策持续影响,2012年新疆房地产市场投资增幅大幅回落,同比仅增长17.40%,较2011的49.00%下滑明显,但仍高于全国水平1.2个百分点。
  近年来,新疆地区不断加强基础设施建设,投资力度持续增强,其中2011和2012年基础设施建设投资同比分别增长21.87%、31.91%,远高于同期全国水平的6.48%和13.72%,为实现跨越式大发展打下坚实的基础。

图2:自2009年起新疆地区固定资产投资增速呈直线式攀升

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

图3:2010-2012年新疆的房地产与基础设施投资增速表现良好 

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  在国家“十一五”和“十二五”各项政策的大力支持下,全疆境内基础设施、民生工程、特色产业等各项重大投资项目纷纷进入,区域建设脚步加快,由此带动了当地水泥消费量的快速增长。2007至2012年全疆水泥产量年均增速为19.14%,而同期全国水平仅为10.24%。区域水泥市场景气度持续增长,吸引了大批外地水泥企业纷纷进入,水泥行业迎来了几十年不遇的“狂欢期”。然而,盛宴之后,蜂拥而上的水泥项目将全区水泥产能推至历史高位,全行业一时间陷入产能过剩泥潭。

图4:自2006年以后新疆地区水泥产量迅猛增长

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  自2006年以后,新疆地区的水泥工业固定资产投资额明显增加,投资增速稳步提高。其中,2011和2012年在全国水泥工业投资同比仅增长3.19%和-8.29%的情况下,全疆水泥工业分别投资50.92和98.59亿元,同比增长63.10%和93.10%。在如此高涨的投资热情之下,全区的水泥生产线犹如雨后春笋般纷纷投产,致使水泥产能快速扩大,陷入产能过剩的泥潭。

图5:2006年以后新疆水泥工业固定资产投资稳步提高

数据来源:中国水泥协会,中国水泥研究院

  自2010年开始,新疆地区的新型干法熟料生产线进入了投产旺盛期,新增熟料产能呈现井喷式增长,2010、2011和2012年分别新增熟料产能1008、1643、2310万吨,而此前年新增熟料产能均不超过500万吨。2013年预计新增熟料产能也有1500万吨左右。2010至2012年全区水泥产能极速扩展,同比分别增长37.25%、45.71%和47.06%。2013年预计同比增长23.00%左右。从新型干法水泥产能来看,经过几年膨胀式的发展,新型干法水泥产能占比已经从2006年的33.45%上升至2010年的75.17%,截止2012底,新疆新型干法水泥产能比重已实现90%。

图6:2006-2013年新疆新增熟料产能与水泥总产能情况

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

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Correlation

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

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2024-02-18 11:12:42

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Recently, the cement network APP video number carried out the online live broadcast of "Sharing Hui Building Materials Observation", and Li Kunming, an analyst of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, looked forward to the cement industry in 2024.

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In the field of production, 20 batches of products from 20 production units were sampled and one batch of unqualified products was detected.

2024-01-04 09:40:06

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水泥行业应认清形势变化,捕捉低碳大势带来的商业模式变革机会。

2023-12-29 15:02:54

难关未过,未来已来。接下来,让我们一起回顾2023年水泥行业热点事件,总结过往,戮力前行。

2023-12-28 11:49:29