1、 Weekly report of cement network: partial kilns in the northwest region have been shut down, and most cement prices are stable (11.4-11.8)
The overall market demand in Northwest China has declined and some kilns have been shut down. Gansu demand is weak, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high, and the shutdown of the clinker line at the beginning of the month caused individual manufacturers to raise prices slightly. Most of the clinker production lines in Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang are stopped in winter, and the price is stable. Shaanxi has less demand and stable prices. In the first three quarters of 2024, the demand for cement declined, the output reached a new low and the profit dropped sharply. Demand may continue to weaken in the fourth quarter, but prices are expected to rise as enterprises increase their efforts to limit production. Cement prices across the country rose in October, and prices may continue to strengthen in November due to factors such as special debt support, enterprise self-discipline, and favorable policies.
During the 11.4-11.8 period in central and southern China, the price of cement in Guangxi rose by 30-50 yuan/ton, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. Guangdong stabilized after the rise, Hubei and Eastern Hubei fell back, many places in Hunan notified the rise again, and Henan enterprises also had the willingness to raise prices. The price increase in Guangxi is due to weather, peripheral prices, off-peak kiln shutdown and other factors. At the same time, the paper involves relevant industrial information, such as the pressure of Henan cement market, the national peak staggering production situation, the signing of contracts between Zhongnan Cement and Hunan Highway Materials, the growth of Chongzuo commercial housing transaction area and the analysis of cement price trend in November.
Cement prices in southwest China have risen and fallen. The price of cement in Chongqing is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the price drop in the early stage is due to the price reduction of enterprises to increase sales volume, and the implementation of this push is to be observed; the price increase in Zhaotong, Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation of the price increase in many places is better; the price increase in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining, Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton due to the influence of Chongqing, and the price drop in Yibin and Luzhou; Recovery in some areas of Guizhou will be increased by 20-30 yuan/ton to be observed. It also introduced the situation of Chongqing Wanzhou Double Port, railway investment in the first three quarters, kiln shutdown time of cement industry, Yunnan energy efficiency "leader", capacity replacement policy and other related industrial information.
On November 7, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the List of 5G Factories in 2024, and the publicity period is from November 8 to November 12. In the cement industry, the related 5G factory projects of Conch Group, Huarun Cement (Fengkai) and other companies, as well as the 5G factories of Zhengzhou Ruitai, Jiangsu Xinning, China Building Materials, Ruijin Evergreen, Evergreen and other companies are to be included in the list. These 5G factories cover many types, such as intelligent cement, whole process intelligence, intelligent manufacturing, innovative application of industrial Internet integration, intelligent mining, intelligent zero carbon, visual full perception and so on.
The weather in East China is fine this week, the demand has recovered slightly, and the price of concrete is stable. The market demand in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui is warming up, which is affected by the price of raw materials or rising; the price in Anhui is generally stable, and the demand is 7-8% of the normal level. Although the weather in Shandong is good, the basic demand is weak and the price is stable. Fujian cement prices increase the cost of commercial mixing enterprises, although there is a willingness to push up, but the demand is general, prices in some areas rose slightly. The price of concrete in Jiangxi is stable, and there is a slight upward trend in some areas affected by the cost. The mainstream price of C30 non-pumping including tax is about 300-360 yuan/m3.
From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index rose slightly, fell year-on-year, and prices in some areas rose. The six regional markets are different, with Northeast, Northwest and North China stable or weak, East China stable and small, Central and South China rising slightly, and Southwest China rising steadily. Among the 29 provincial capitals, the price of C30 concrete in a few cities such as Kunming and Haikou has increased considerably. Upstream cement prices continued to rise, sand and gravel declined slightly, the activity of cooling construction in the north will decline next week, the impact of precipitation in the south will be small, demand will rise moderately, and the rising cost will make concrete prices in some regions expected to rise, but the supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to promote a sustained rebound.
On October 31, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry (2024 edition), which was implemented on November 1, 2024, stipulating that capacity that fails to meet the energy efficiency standards, stops production for more than two consecutive years, and has insufficient operating days shall not be used for replacement. According to the big data of China Cement Network, the inefficient production capacity is about 280 million tons, plus the long-term shutdown and bankruptcy of production lines, or more than 300 million tons of production capacity can not participate in the replacement. This method aims to eliminate the replacement of inefficient production capacity, promote its withdrawal, accelerate the process of capacity removal, and ease the tension between supply and demand.
The rise of raw materials may increase the price of concrete in southwest China (11.4-11.8). Chongqing concrete quotation is temporarily stable, although the implementation of cement price increase is not clear, but there is a possibility of concrete price increase. In most areas of Sichuan, the price of cement has risen, the demand is general, and the price of concrete has not been significantly promoted. Yunnan's raw materials have risen sharply, and the price of concrete in Kunming has risen, and the rest of the province may follow up. Due to insufficient demand in Guizhou, although raw materials are rising, concrete prices are generally stable with only small fluctuations.
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