[评论]:全国1-2月水泥产量超预期下滑,后市并不悲观!

2022-03-16 09:16:09

昨天,国家统计局公布1-2月宏观经济数据,2022年1-2月水泥产量19933万吨,同比减少17.8%,水泥产量下降幅度大幅超预期,水泥行业陷入谷底了吗?在笔者看来,水泥产量下降主要由以下三点原因引起......

昨天,国家统计局公布1-2月宏观经济数据,2022年1-2月水泥产量19933万吨,同比减少17.8%,水泥产量下降幅度大幅超预期,水泥行业陷入谷底了吗?在笔者看来,水泥产量下降主要由以下三点原因引起,第一:需求下滑。特别是1-2月地产新开工面积持续负增长且降幅扩大拖累需求走弱;第二:供给减少。1-2月多地水泥企业执行冬季错峰,错峰时间较往年增加,且执行效果良好。第三:预期转弱。今年经济下行压力较大,不少从业者对地产下滑压力深表担忧,预期转弱导致信心不足。但就后市来看,水泥需求并不悲观,行业仍将保持较强韧性。

剔除疫情年份,2022年1-2月水泥产量为近十年最低

2020年由于新冠疫情爆发,各地停工停产,水泥产量下滑严重,2021年各地倡导就地过年,复工复产加快,水泥产量迅速恢复,2022年由于需求疲弱,水泥产量大幅下滑,2022年1-2月水泥产量19933万吨,同比减少17.8%,剔除2020年特殊年份,2022年1-2月是近十年产量最低年份。

图1:2022年1-2月水泥产量大幅下降

 

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

新开工降幅扩大,房企拿地未稳

2022年1-2月房地产新开工面积同比下降12.2%,下降幅度继续扩大,土地购置面积同比下降42.3%,几近腰斩,尽管新开工与土地购置面积之比有所上升,但主要是土地购置面积下滑幅度较大引起,1-2月房企拿地仍未企稳,新开工持续下滑,水泥需求受到较大拖累。从销售端看,房屋销售面积开始转负,房企开发到位资金同比大幅减少,房企资金持续偏紧,销售端疲弱加速负反馈至开工端。

图2、3:地产开工端—销售端双向走弱

 

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

基建实际增速偏低,结构出现分化

2022年1-2月基建投资增速同比增长8.1%,2022年2月PPI累计同比上涨8.9%,涨幅达到近年之最,剔除价格因素,基建实际增速或将更低。从基建四大主要分项看,结构有所分化,铁路运输业同比下降8%,公共设施管理业同比增速4.3%,跑输基建投资整体3.8个百分点,基建对水泥需求拉动有限。

图4、5:基建实际增速偏低,结构有所分化



数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

2022年春节早于往年,1月份重点施工项目较少,多地提前放假,需求弱于2021年。2月份开春后,雨雪天气较多,工人到岗时间偏慢,同时北方地区由于冬残奥会市场基本未启动,需求出现延时,从发运率数据来看,2022年1-2月低于同期,需求弱于同期且恢复速度较慢。

图6:2022年1-2月发运率弱于同期(%)

 

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

错峰时间延长,供给出现缩量

2022年1-2月错峰时间延长是导致水泥产量下降另一因素,从部分省份来看,多地错峰时间都较往年有所延长,水泥需求较为旺盛华东江苏、浙江等地较往年增加5-10天,同时错峰生产的良好执行也对水泥供给产生一定影响。

表1:2022年1-2月部分省份错峰时间VS2021年1-2月

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

经济下行压力加大,市场信心不足

2022年我国经济下行压力加大,经济增速目标下调至5.5%,房地产作为水泥需求的主要驱动力量之一,2022年或面临负增长压力。从调研信息看,业内普遍对地产下行深表担忧,预期转弱和信心不足对水泥需求造成进一步冲击。

图7:地产投资不断下行

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

二季度基建发力,水泥需求有保证

2022年一季度水泥需求较差,但预计二季度水泥需求会明显好转。2022年政府工作报告指出,2022年财政支出较2021年扩大2万亿元,财政发力空间较大,从专项债发行进度看,1-2月发行8361亿元,占比全年额度超20%,财政支出明显前置,预计在二季度将形成更多实物工作量,在众多重大项目支撑下,二季度水泥需求将获得较强支撑。

图8:专项债发行节奏加快(亿元)

 

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)


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Correlation

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Under the current supply and demand situation of the industry, strict implementation of off-peak production is still the key to maintain the stable development of the industry. According to its introduction, the number of off-peak production days in Chongqing this year may reach nearly 200 days, about 20 days more than last year. However, from the implementation of this year, two key problems need to be solved to promote off-peak production. 1、 Some small enterprises are not enthusiastic about participating. According to its introduction, large enterprises and some small enterprises in the region can strictly implement the peak-staggering production plan, but some small-scale cement enterprises, especially single-line enterprises, have poor enthusiasm for the implementation of peak-staggering production, which makes it difficult to implement the regional peak-staggering production as a whole.

2024-10-15 14:42:58

Vietnam is the largest exporter of cement and clinker, with an annual export of 30 million tons of cement and clinker. China, the Philippines and Bangladesh are the main export countries of Vietnam in Asia. With the decrease of China's demand, the export of cement and clinker from Vietnam to China has also declined. Vietnam is now increasing the export of cement and clinker to the Philippines and Bangladesh. To make up for the loss of market share of cement and clinker exported to China.

2024-10-15 13:07:56

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

The vicious competition of "involution" is a game without winners.

2024-08-08 10:38:47

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase.

2024-07-25 10:00:09

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

According to the research and statistics of the People's Bank of China, according to the issuance plans announced by various places, the issuance scale of new local bonds in the third quarter was as high as 1966.9 billion yuan, an increase of 605.3 billion yuan over the same period last year; plus the maturity scale of 1067.6 billion yuan of local bonds, it is expected that in the third quarter

2024-07-10 14:08:28

There is little hope that the demand for cement on the real estate side will recover, and infrastructure will remain the "biggest reliance" for cement demand for a long time to come. If the demand for cement at the infrastructure end can not play a supporting role, or even decline by a large margin, the cement supply side will drive the cement to rise.

2024-07-01 12:02:26

The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, and the price prospect of natural sand is worrying.

2024-06-26 15:22:12

Strict implementation of off-peak production is an important reason for the rise of local cement prices.

2024-06-18 09:51:24

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

2024-05-23 13:38:17

Even from the above four aspects, it is still difficult to fundamentally solve the problem of excess cement production capacity in Henan. If orderly competition and cooperation can not be achieved, the competition between "advanced production capacity and relatively advanced production capacity" will eventually change into the confrontation between "advanced production capacity and advanced production capacity".

2024-05-13 15:30:38

In the first quarter of 2024, the industry as a whole showed the operational characteristics of "shrinking demand, fierce competition, high inventory and low price".

2024-05-07 09:20:19

The economic slowdown is another challenge facing the U.S. cement market in 2024.

2024-04-28 17:17:33

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

Recently, a number of cement listed companies have been surveyed by institutions and expressed their views and judgments on the market trend this year.

2024-04-18 11:15:12

From January to March 2024, the cement output was 10,000 tons 33684, a decrease of 11.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 10.2 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-March decreased by 16.3% year-on-year.

2024-04-16 15:55:59

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

As the main body of the market, enterprises will give answers with their own practical actions.

2024-04-10 13:03:13

The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17

In terms of thermal coal price, Chen Tianyu believes that: 1. Excess supply and demand is difficult to change, and the situation of periodic tightening will still occur; 2. Under the dual-track system, pay attention to the rhythm of non-electricity demand release; 3. The price of 5500 kcal coal around Bohai Sea will be 973 yuan/ton in 2023, and the price focus will continue to move down in 2024, fluctuating between 750-950 yuan/ton.

2024-04-02 11:28:11

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

Li Wei, vice president of China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings Limited, said at the meeting that the industry situation this year will be more severe than last year. In terms of infrastructure construction, due to debt factors, the progress of infrastructure projects has slowed down significantly, which was not expected by the industry last year. In terms of real estate, the effect of the current stimulus policy is not obvious, and the confidence of the real estate industry is still insufficient.

2024-03-28 17:34:18

On March 27, the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" hosted by China Cement Network officially began to report.

2024-03-27 20:36:33

In January-February 2024, the output of cement was 10,000 tons 18280, a decrease of 1.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-February decreased by 7.9% year-on-year.

2024-03-18 16:54:15

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

Zhang Liqun pointed out that facing the future, China's economy can not stay at this level for a long time, is in the start-up period of new development, the cement industry needs to be confident and fully prepared.

2024-03-14 14:10:57

In 2024, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cement industry is becoming more and more serious, and the battle of "grabbing share" among major cement enterprises is imminent, and the national situation is more complex and pessimistic.

2024-03-13 09:15:24

On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" in Hangzhou. During the conference, awards will be given to the top 100 cement and supplier enterprises. At the same time, experts and scholars, China Railway and other construction units will be invited to discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future!

2024-02-27 09:41:58

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the cement market in Gansu has gradually recovered, but the start-up of enterprises is slow, and the shipment volume is expected to return to normal after mid-March. Due to the difficulty of obtaining funds for major projects and the restrictive policies on new projects in high-debt provinces, the demand for cement in Gansu is not optimistic. Cement production in Gansu in 2023 is the same as the previous year, but if infrastructure projects are limited, it may have an impact on the market.

2024-02-23 10:09:14

In January 2024, the sales price of cement in Hunan Province fell by 1.4% on a month-on-month basis and 12% on a year-on-year basis, mainly due to overcapacity, declining demand and lower production costs. Cement market prices are expected to remain volatile and weak in February, but in the long run, the boost from infrastructure and real estate investment will support demand.

2024-02-19 10:09:06

The author believes that the expansion of the "concrete city" model also reflects the change of the unequal relationship between the North and the South in the world. In the past, multinational companies grabbed a lot of investment and trade gains, but under the new capitalism of "combination of government and business" in Africa, local political and business elites have risen and formed alliance networks, among which the best have even begun to launch reverse m ergers and reshape "North-South relations". With the retreat of neoliberal influence, a new governance model seems to be emerging in West Africa: the government centralizes the promotion of infrastructure projects, enterprises respond to the call to speed up the landing, and the people vote according to the results of their achievements.

2024-02-07 09:41:37

Although the company suffered losses in the context of the sharp decline in the operating performance of the whole industry, the operating cash flow in the first three quarters was basically flat compared with the previous year, maintaining financial stability and ensuring the potential for development.

2024-02-05 09:23:30

It is believed that with the sustained development of Xinjiang's fixed investment, the local cement demand is worth looking forward to.

2024-01-30 15:25:30

Ma Zhifeng said that the cement industry has been overcapacity for a long time, and off-peak production is the only feasible way for the cement industry to explore for many years. If the off-peak production policy can not be effectively implemented, many enterprises will not survive.

2024-01-25 10:37:28

In 2023, India's cement market demand and production continued to grow, the domestic urbanization process was further accelerated, and the investment in infrastructure remained unchanged.

2024-01-22 13:39:47

Looking forward to 2024, many cement enterprises have no expectation of this, the only certainty is that the probability of loss in 2024 is still high.

2024-01-19 16:16:16

Talking about the situation of Henan cement market in 2024, Wang Aizhen said that due to the drag of real estate, the contradiction between supply and demand is likely to further intensify in the new year, and the price competition among enterprises may be unavoidable. If the industry can not reach a consensus on steady growth, the Henan cement market will remain difficult in the new year, and the loss may be more serious.

2024-01-16 20:10:05

In the Yangtze River Delta region in 2023, Shanghai performed best in terms of demand, while the annual average price of cement was Zhejiang > Shanghai > Anhui > Jiangsu, but both fell to the lowest level in five years.

2024-01-16 09:14:58

"The sales volume, price and benefit of our enterprises in 2023 are all lower than those in 2022." Recently, a cement enterprise in Lanzhou said that the average price of cement dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year.

2024-01-15 13:46:05

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.