2016前三季度建材行业趋稳 水泥产量保持增长

2016-11-16 09:42:30

建材行业目前显现出总体趋稳态势,其表现一是需求保持平稳,特别是项目释放效应对水泥等拉动明显;二是去产能成为行业自觉、不自觉的主动行为,行业自律作用显现;三是结构调整工作有推进,兼并重组促进市场格局重构,竞争环境有所改善。但是水泥等主要产品价格同比仍处低位,全行业经济效益尚未摆脱低迷状态,建材行业总体趋稳态势和基础还较为脆弱。

  建材行业目前显现出总体趋稳态势,其表现一是需求保持平稳,特别是项目释放效应对水泥等拉动明显;二是去产能成为行业自觉、不自觉的主动行为,行业自律作用显现;三是结构调整工作有推进,兼并重组促进市场格局重构,竞争环境有所改善。但是水泥等主要产品价格同比仍处低位,全行业经济效益尚未摆脱低迷状态,建材行业总体趋稳态势和基础还较为脆弱。

  一、前三季度建材工业经济运行情况

  一是行业保持平稳增长态势,但增幅缩小,下滑压力仍显突出。9月份受建材传统市场“旺季”、行业自律发挥效力及近期国家投资项目审批有所加快等因素影响,9月份当月规模以上建材工业增加值同比增长5.8%,比8月份回升0.1个百分点,这是今年以来建材增长速度持续下滑以后的首次回升。1~9月份规模以上建材工业增加值同比增长6.7%,6月份以后建材工业累计同比增速下滑幅度进一步收窄。

  二是水泥、平板玻璃产量保持增长。受需求及行业自律影响,今年下半年以来全国水泥产量增速放缓,但随着市场旺季到来、水泥价格回升及G20会议后产能释放,9月份当月产量同比增速回升至2.9%,前三季度累计全国水泥产量达到17.6亿吨,同比增长2.6%。与水泥情况相反,6月份以来全国平板玻璃产销量在价格上涨因素刺激下,加速回升的趋势9月份仍在持续,9月份当月产量同比增速进一步加快,累计全国平板玻璃产量将达到5.8亿重量箱,同比增长4.1%。

  三是建材行业投资持续下降。不但水泥、平板玻璃等传统过剩产业,而且混凝土与水泥制品、墙材等加工制品业投资也出现下滑,将影响建材转型升级和发展潜力,特别是建材行业90%投资来源于民间,非国有投资的下降,也表明建材民营资本信心仍显不足。

  四是经济效益呈回复性增长。水泥玻璃等产品价格的回升影响,规模以上建材利润总额从年初的负增长转为正增长,前三季度达到2232亿元,增长9.7%,8月份水泥利润增长由负转正,前三季度利润总额249亿元,同比增长33.7%,平板玻璃自3月起全行业扭亏为盈,前三季度实现利润总额40亿元。虽然建材及水泥、平板玻璃经济效益有所增长,但仍远低于前年同期水平,仍处于在去年以来效益下滑后的回复性阶段。

  五是建材产品价格环比保持回升。9月份建材产品平均出厂价格环比回升0.7%,同比下降幅度缩小到0.1%,三季度平均下降幅度从年初的4.5%缩小到2.6%。9月份全国水泥平均价格环比继续上涨2.9%,比2月份最低值回升20元,涨幅7.4%,但1~9月平均价格仍比上年同期低6.8%。建筑用玻璃价格从2月份筑底回升,截至9月末每重量箱回升9元,涨幅超过15.8%,但9月末到10月上旬,建筑玻璃出厂价格已经出现回落苗头,每重量箱玻璃价格平均下降2元左右。

  二、建材行业发展中的积极变化

  1.建材行业“去产能、调结构”成为行业共识。政府、行业、企业形成合力,在市场需求没有较大改变的情况下,建材行业实现了稳增长的良好开端。2015年,水泥产量出现了25年来的首次负增长,错峰生产、主动停产等成为常态,企业从消极对待、恶性竞争逐渐开始了主动应对、积极参与。平板玻璃加快产品升级,玻璃深加工率、产品附加值有所提高,缓解市场压力。截至2016年7月,全国共有浮法玻璃生产线352条,其中,冷修停产生产线124条,停产产能3.61亿重量箱。

  2.兼并重组,市场格局加速重构。2016年建材行业企业兼并重组运作频频,金隅、冀东5月底通过资本市场实现联合重组,拉法基中国、华新水泥完成整合,华润、昆钢嘉华战略重组,中建材、中材两家建材央企合并,以上使水泥行业产业集中度提高了5个百分点,全国水泥市场重新布局,市场环境有所改善。以金隅与冀东兼并为例,自5月签订重组协议后,华北水泥市场环境迅速改善,冀东水泥由去年亏损超过17亿元,到今年9月份经营性利润同比减亏20亿元,其中三季度经营性利润环比增约6亿元,同比增约9亿元。

  3.错峰生产全面实施,效果明显。2016年北方15省市自治区占企业总数的94%的487家水泥企业开展冬季错峰生产行动,688条熟料生产线停窑,占熟料生产线总数的91%,共减少熟料产量1.6亿吨,减少熟料库存1.2亿吨,减少资金占用约180亿元,有效调节了市场供需关系,缓解了北方地区企业亏损局面。今年,错峰生产将进一步全面推开,由季节性错峰生产向季节性、环保性错峰生产全面推开。

  4.标准、政策等措施多管齐下,推进去产能落到实处。近期,全面取消32.5复合硅酸盐水泥的标准修订工作已经完成报批稿,并上报国标委待批。此项标准正式实施后,将导致占据50%左右水泥总量的32.5复合硅酸盐水泥退出市场,有望削减水泥产量2亿吨左右。截至目前,全国大部分省市都从淘汰落后、供给侧改革、调整结构、投资审批等角度提出了水泥、玻璃等去产能的具体指标和措施,政策的执行效率和效果将提升和显现。

  三、当前建材行业经济运行主要问题

  1.建材行业固定投资持续下降,投资信心不足,已经波及加工制品业等行业转型升级进度。

  2.水泥玻璃企业贷款授信额度减少,收紧明显,抽贷现象十分普遍,严重干扰企业正常经营。

  3.今年以来煤炭价格上涨迅速,已累计上涨160元每吨,涨幅达到32%,由此导致全国水泥生产成本增加约13元每吨,占今年以来水泥出厂价格增幅的80%以上。

  4.玻璃产量回升过猛,价格面临再次下滑风险。今年以来玻璃销量回升,库存减少,但当前平板玻璃库存仍然是一个月零5天的产量,7500万重量箱。在价格上涨的刺激下,三季度全国平板玻璃产销量回升过猛。今年后4个月平板玻璃产销量不加以控制,在庞大库存和过剩产能的压力下,四季度平板玻璃价格有可能再次下跌,而且价格在9月中旬短暂下滑后10月中上旬已经再次下滑。

  四、四季度及明年建材行业经济运行形势预判

  1.宏观市场环境基本平稳,全国投资增速止跌趋平,投资项目加快释放,直接拉动作用仍然存在,确保建材行业四季度市场传统旺季仍旺提供了支撑,支撑着建材行业外部环境平稳。

  2.供给侧结构性矛盾制约行业运行质量回升。目前影响建材经济运行质量的主要问题不是产量、销量的增长速度,而是低迷的产品价格和持续下滑的经济效益。在需求不振和过剩产能的压力下,今年建材规上利润在去年低水平上恢复增长,但不可能恢复前年以前的正常水平。

  3.下半年价格回升难以充分影响全年效益。虽然下半年水泥等价格回升,但产销量增速持续下滑,且煤耗成本上升吃掉了今年以来水泥出厂价格增幅的80%以上。

  建材行业四季度及明年初期稳增长目标将预期实现。今年全年建材工业增加值增长速度预计在7%左右,全年水泥产量恢复超过去年水平,但低于前年水平,年增长增长率在2.4%,平板玻璃产量年增长率将达到3%。受建材行业固定资产投资持续下滑等因素影响,明年建材增速将很可能低于工业平均增速,处于低速增长阶段。

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在城镇化进程放缓的大背景下,国内预拌混凝土需求总量面临下滑预期,加之受到“双碳”目标约束,要求行业从追求量的扩张转向追求质的提升,绿色高质量发展成为行业共识……

2022-11-10 13:30:27

近三年来,百年变局和世纪疫情相互叠加,我国混凝土与水泥制品发展也面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力。在此背景下,中国混凝土与水泥制品行业迈向高质量发展的步伐依然坚定,绿色、低碳、智能化等发展理念深入人心,全行业正在加快重构产业发展的新格局。

2022-10-19 09:20:09

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2022.10.14)

2022-10-14 17:45:26

华润水泥如何推动ESG发展。我谈三个“共”,即“与环境共生”“与社会共享”“与员工共进”。

2022-09-23 14:37:39

乘风使力正扬帆,绿色发展绘新篇。未来,水泥行业也将持续踩准时代的鼓点,深入推进节能降耗改造,积极探索减污降碳路径,不断用智能化、数字化技术为企业转型赋能,让“灰色”水泥的“绿色”梦底色更亮、成色更足!

2022-09-08 09:15:26

2022年9月1日,由中国水泥网主办的“第九届中国水泥节能环保技术交流大会暨水泥‘双碳’大会”在安徽芜湖召开,此次会议以“节能降碳 创新增效 绿色升级”为主题。

2022-09-01 20:20:44

2021年走出业绩连续增长“舒适圈”后,2022年上半年,水泥行业整体业绩下行压力进一步扩大。

2022-09-01 10:22:30

通过分析近年来公布的“熟料产能利用率数据”,其与实际停窑时间及窑运转率矛盾甚至严重冲突, 也与水泥产能过剩实际情况不相符。有些数据明显失真,普遍存在统计口径及边界条件不统一、不规范等等问题。

2022-08-12 09:45:46

与会代表在交流中相互理解,在互动中共同思考,同舟共济,齐心协力,共同为行业的发展集思广益,献计献策。

2022-08-06 20:52:57

工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、生态环境部近日联合印发《工业领域碳达峰实施方案》。

2022-08-01 11:58:38

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2022.7.22)

2022-07-22 18:09:47

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.