[原创]铁路投资高潮再起 行业需谨慎对待

2014-04-15 09:19:17

2014年4月2日,国务院总理李克强主持召开国务院常务会议,推出小规模经济刺激政策。其中,确定深化铁路投融资体制改革、加快铁路建设的政策措施。随后,中国铁路总公司调增了2014年的铁路建设目标。铁路投融资政策的支持有望推动全年铁路建设的顺利推进,这对于下游铁路项目建设所带动的水泥需求是个重大利好消息。而究竟此次铁路投资能多大程度拉动水泥需求呢?现本文就对此作一简单分析。

  2014年4月2日,国务院总理李克强主持召开国务院常务会议,推出小规模经济刺激政策,主要包括三个方面内容:小微企业减税、棚户区改造、铁路投资。其中,确定深化铁路投融资体制改革、加快铁路建设的政策措施,指出今年全国铁路预计投产新线6600公里以上,其中国家投资近80%投向中西部地区。

  随后,中国铁路总公司按照国务院常务会议的决策部署,在综合考虑经济社会发展需求、铁路运输需要、铁路建设资金保障能力等条件的基础上,调增了2014年的铁路建设目标。一是新开工项目由44项,增加到48项;二是全国铁路固定资产投资由7000亿元,增加到7200亿元;三是新线投产里程由6600公里,增加到7000公里以上;四是33个开展前期工作项目,必保10个项目在年内完成可研批复。

  铁路投融资政策的支持有望推动全年铁路建设的顺利推进,这对于下游铁路项目建设所带动的水泥需求是个重大利好消息。而究竟此次铁路投资能多大程度拉动水泥需求呢?现本文就对此作一简单分析。

一、2009年起全国铁路建设快速发展,未来两年将高潮再起

1.1、2014和2015年全国铁路建设投资呈现高位

  “十一五”是我国铁路发展的重要时期,全国加快实施中长期铁路网规划,铁路建设取得重要进展。在“十一五”期间,全国完成铁路固定资产投资2.42万亿元,年均增长43.93%,其中,铁路基本建设投资1.98万亿元。在此期间,受2008年国际金融危机影响,2009和2010年国家扩大铁路建设投资以刺激经济增长,分别投资高达7013.21和8426.52亿元,创历史高位,铁路投资占基建投资的比例也由2008年的10.84%进一步提高至2009的12.82%、2010年的13.00%,显示当年铁路投资规模有明显的扩大。

  “十二五”时期,是我国全面建设小康社会的关键时期,也是铁路实现科学发展、全面提升现代化水平的关键时期,全国铁路将安排固定资产投资2.8万亿元,其中铁路基本建设投资2.3万亿元。但据中期评估报告建议,“十二五”期间铁路固定资产投资需增至3.3万亿元,才能完成至2015年全国铁路运营里程12万公里的目标。

  据中国铁路总公司的信息显示,2011至2013年的国家铁路投资额已较2009与2010年有小幅度回落,分别完成投资5906.09、6339.67和6638亿元;铁路投资占基建投资的比例也由此前的两位数回落至个位数,分别为8.82%、8.22%和7.10%,呈现走低趋势。三年累计完成固定资产投资1.88万亿元,较“十一五”同期增加了1万亿元。2014年初,全国铁路固定资产投资计划安排7000亿元,其中国家投资6300亿元、地方和社会独资投资700亿元。据近期中国铁路总公司总经理盛光祖介绍,2014年全国铁路固定资产投资方将由年初计划的7000亿元增加到7200亿元,该投资水平已超过2009年同期。若按计划完成规划目标,这意味着2015年全国铁路建设仍将需7000亿元左右的投资。这与2014年相比,投资力度将稍微减弱。

图1:2014、2015年将迎来新的铁路建设高潮

数据来源:中国铁路总公司,中国水泥研究院

1.2、铁路建设里程加快推进,中西部成重点

  从铁路建设里程来看,根据铁路“十二五”规划的发展目标,“十二五”末全国铁路运营里程将由2010年底的9.12万公里增加到2015年底的12万公里左右,铁路新线投产总规模控制在3万公里左右。与“十一五”期间全国新增铁路营业里程1.58万公里,“十二五”全国新增营业里程将翻倍增长。

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