水泥行业“金九银十”成色待验:成本高企,行业量价双减

2022-09-06 09:57:41

中国水泥网·大数据研究院水泥分析师李坤明表示,较上半年,下半年水泥需求会有所改善,但考虑到整体宏观经济的因素,改善幅度有限。他预计,在下半年需求恢复情况下,今年水泥行业整体效益同比上一年或出现约20%左右的下滑。

成本高企、需求低迷、价格战蔓延,今年以来水泥行业量价双减,效益大幅下滑,在今年3月至5月旺季落空背景下,下半年能否如期走出淡季,进入传统“金九银十”?

中国水泥网消息,上周全国P.O42.5散装水泥均价443.16元/吨,环比上涨0.38%。多个省份推涨水泥价格,8月重庆主城及渝西北地区连续推涨三轮,累计通知涨幅130-140元/吨左右;内蒙古8月以来市场累计通知涨幅超200元/吨,但实际落实幅度低于通知幅度。

业内反馈,近日部分地区水泥价格上涨主要受错峰生产力度加大供应趋紧、煤价上涨推高水泥成本等因素影响。

9月2日,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)145.98,同比下滑5.01%,较去年11月高位,降超30%。

银河证券在研报中表示,在成本压力下,部分地区水泥企业价格上涨意愿强烈,但需求疲软不足以支撑水泥价格大幅上涨,预计短期内水泥价格小幅上涨,但整体趋稳,且今年旺季整体需求不及往年同期。

价格探底回升有限

一般情况下,9月至10月是基建、房地产传统施工旺季,也是水泥需求旺季。

中国水泥网消息,8月底9月初,全国各地水泥价格涨跌互现。

具体来看,东北地区错峰停窑执行情况较好,黑龙江、吉林、辽宁主流价格上涨50-70元/吨;西南等地限电解除,企业复产,部分地区价格有所回落。

另外,8月底,安徽多地水泥实际成交价下滑10-20元/吨;广西柳州地区下调水泥价格20元/吨;重庆部分企业水泥价格回落30-50元/吨;四川多地部分厂家水泥价格下调30-50元/吨;云南多地下调水泥价格15-30元/吨。

天风证券研报表示,进入9月,气温下降,下游施工逐步恢复,但受疫情局部散发影响,以及下游资金短缺尚未缓解制约,水泥需求恢复缓慢,旺季特征不明显。鉴于9月河北、河南、山东等部分省份继续执行错峰停窑计划,后期水泥价格以小幅回升为主。

下半年需求或有所恢复

国家统计局数据显示,7月规模以上水泥产量1.92亿吨,同比减少7%;1-7月规模以上水泥产量11.63亿吨,同比减少14.2%。

有业内人士此前表示,需求下降太快是今年水泥行业不景气的核心原因。他预计,下半年随着重点基建项目的逐步落地,需求将有所恢复,但由于房地产仍未企稳,地产对水泥需求拖累因素仍在,水泥需求可能会出现季节性回暖,增长幅度有限。

房地产占水泥下游比重较大,今年房地产行业持续降温对水泥需求形成拖累。

国家统计局数据显示,今年1-7月,全国房地产开发投资79462亿元,同比下降6.4%;房屋新开工面积76067万平方米,同比下降36.1%。

成本方面,受以煤炭为代表的燃料价格偏高影响,今年水泥生产成本较高。

据水泥行业龙头股安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司(海螺水泥,600585)公告,今年上半年,燃料及动力单位成本148.31元/吨,同比上涨39.42%。

需求下滑、成本攀升等因素导致水泥企业盈利空间收窄。Wind数据显示,今年上半年,海螺水泥、天山股份等20余家水泥企业净利同比均下滑。

中国水泥网·大数据研究院水泥分析师李坤明表示,较上半年,下半年水泥需求会有所改善,但考虑到整体宏观经济的因素,改善幅度有限。他预计,在下半年需求恢复情况下,今年水泥行业整体效益同比上一年或出现约20%左右的下滑。

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Correlation

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

This article is selected from Song Zhiping's book "Reform Heart Road", which describes his motivation and effect of restructuring cement in those years, and has been published by China Cement Network. Recently, there has been a call for restructuring and mergers and acquisitions in the cement industry. Reviewing this old article may have the effect of reviewing the old and learning the new, encouraging the industry to promote a new round of restructuring, and solving the persistent problems of the industry.

2024-09-16 10:19:30

In the first half of 2024, Conch Cement realized an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit attributable to parent company of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%.

2024-08-30 14:56:13

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" in Hangzhou. During the conference, awards will be given to the top 100 cement and supplier enterprises. At the same time, experts and scholars, China Railway and other construction units will be invited to discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future!

2024-02-27 09:41:58

Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in 2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation?

2024-01-23 09:30:22

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.12.15)

2023-12-15 17:18:06

煤炭是水泥生产过程中的主要燃料,其成本占到水泥熟料成本的50%~55%,煤价的波动对水泥成本有着直接的影响,特别是在需求走低的情况下,成本的控制尤为重要。

2023-12-15 09:16:08

水泥企业聚焦数字化、智能化转型,练好内功、提升自身综合竞争力的同时,亦对外部市场环境颇为关注。

2023-12-01 09:16:04

目前,西藏自治区仍处在基础设施建设的高峰期,水泥需求端支撑力度尚可,但考虑到前期产能增长,行业供应压力仍存,市场行情取决于实际产能释放情况……

2023-11-13 14:11:28

前三季度,全国水泥产量14.95亿吨,全口径同比下降4.32%,产量创下近13年来新低。效益方面,受水泥价格跌幅较深和需求下滑影响,行业效益大幅萎缩,水泥企业亏损面超一半。

2023-11-10 16:40:41

今年前三季度,水泥需求和价格双双下滑,导致多家水泥企业盈利下降。为应对压力,企业纷纷转型升级,寻找新的利润增长点。预计四季度和明年水泥行业需求和价格将逐步改善,行业底部已明晰。

2023-11-04 13:14:41

今年前三季度市场总体偏弱低迷,公司注重练内功夯实竞争力,总体仍取得了一定成效,对四季度和明年依然抱有信心,有相对乐观的预期。

2023-10-30 13:40:00

行情小幅探涨;置换比例1:1,海螺水泥将迁建一条4500t/d熟料生产线;水泥冷暖大佬谈丨章小华:今后五年,行业将从错峰“去产量”转向“去产能”

2023-10-23 14:30:12

10年来,海螺集团积极响应共建“一带一路”倡议,坚持“共商共建共享”,在20多个国家和地区拥有40余家企业,成为国内同行业海外发展最快的企业之一,成为投资规模和产能规模的“双料冠军”。

2023-10-20 09:36:12

总的来看,市场涨价氛围浓厚。至于此次价格上涨原因,上述市场人士均表示,进入传统旺季,尽管下游需求仍显疲软,但受原燃材料价格上涨影响,叠加错峰生产,全国水泥价格保持上行。

2023-10-10 09:17:16

是否会加速水泥业务的并购? 金隅集团回复;降价近1300万!四川一水泥企业部分股权第三次拍卖;上百家商混、水泥、砂石企业熬不过今年了

2023-10-09 13:23:05

展望下半年,尽管需求有向好预期,但地产尚未企稳、基建增速放缓背景下需求好转程度较为有限。

2023-09-21 09:42:44

上半年,全国水泥产量9.53亿吨,全口径同比下降2.4%,产量创下2012年来新低。效益方面,受水泥价格跌幅较深和需求下滑影响,行业效益大幅萎缩,2023年全行业利润总额164.7亿元,同比下降59.8%。

2023-09-20 13:52:49

2023年上半年,国内经济呈现弱复苏态势,恢复乏力。基建投资为水泥需求提供了重要支撑但增长空间有限,房地产主要经济指标均较上年同期出现大幅下降,水泥市场呈现“需求疲软、市场收缩、库存高企、存量竞争加剧、效益下滑”的运行特征。

2023-08-29 15:04:00

2023年上半年,陕西省的固定资产投资和基础建设投资的增速均下降,省市重点建设项目有所增长,陕西省暂无新增熟料生产线投产,供给方面保持稳定。

2023-08-25 13:23:45

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.8.11)

2023-08-11 17:17:31

目前,水泥行业布局分布式光伏发电、储能等新能源也正处于快速发展阶段,并且越来越多的水泥企业开始入局其中,包括海螺水泥、南方水泥、江西水泥、塔牌水泥等。作为能源消耗大户,水泥行业承担着碳排放的重要使命,正在一步步向着低碳、高效的目标迈进。

2023-07-12 14:47:50

从整个二季度预测,行业的利润绝对值还是处于偏低状态,相较一季度会有所收窄。

2023-06-13 09:57:22

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.6.9)

2023-06-09 17:24:15

水泥价格的持续下降虽然对于水泥公司有很大冲击,但同时也会让整个行业的收购兼并及整合加速进行。

2023-05-31 09:11:37

2022年全国水泥产量21.3亿吨,同比下降10.5%,需求不振下水泥价格高开低走,同时煤炭价格上涨导致水泥企业生产成本高企,行业利润惨遭“膝盖斩”,全年利润降幅近60%,水泥行业发展经历了较为困难的一年。

2023-05-26 09:33:35

近日,受夏季用电高峰来临、水泥价格走低等因素影响,国内众多水泥企业都在积极响应错峰停产安排。

2023-05-19 09:58:26

近日,多地水泥产业协会纷纷表示,落实错峰生产,坚持水泥错峰生产常态化。

2023-05-09 09:18:22

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.4.21)

2023-04-21 17:27:56

当前,我国水泥产能仍然过剩是不争的事实,能源成本高企也同样是企业无法立刻解决的难题。那么,在此背景之下,水泥行业将驶向何方?

2023-04-15 10:42:40

海螺水泥执行董事、总经理李群峰明确表示,综合考虑基建、地产和农村市场的需求结构,公司预计2023年水泥需求将保持平稳或略有增长。

2023-04-12 09:17:13

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.4.7)

2023-04-07 17:16:11

日前,多家水泥上市企业发布2022年公司业绩,其中除青松建化外,净利润均同比下滑,大部分企业下滑幅度超50%。

2023-04-01 12:57:45

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,近期京津冀气温有所上升,整体市场需求恢复至5-6成上下,水泥价格总体平稳运行。为抢占市场份额,近日呼和浩特、乌兰察布等地区一些企业成交价格普遍有所下滑,幅度较不明朗。

2023-03-31 17:56:27

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.3.31)

2023-03-31 17:15:28

目前,水泥生产项目主体工程生产区中控楼、水泵房已基本建成,窑头锅炉安装、电缆桥架安装、熟料热风管道等设备正在安装调试,联合储库、水泥包装、水泥库、水泥粉磨、转运站等生产车间正在收尾。

2023-03-28 09:31:17

3月15-16日,中国水泥网召开了“2023中国水泥产业峰会”,邀请业界领导、专家等共同探讨水泥行业发展方向,凝聚星火之力,推动行业高质量发展。

2023-03-27 11:36:53

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.3.24)

2023-03-24 17:24:43

2023年开年,多地政府陆续下发了省级重点项目建设清单。其中涉及海螺水泥、天山股份、红狮集团、华润水泥、天瑞集团等众多水泥企业。

2023-03-24 09:26:40

3月20日,广东发改委网站发布《广东省2023年重点建设项目计划的通知》称,2023年广东省共安排省重点项目1530个,总投资8.5万亿元,年度计划投资1万亿元;安排开展前期工作的省重点建设前期预备项目1090个,估算总投资4.6万亿元。

2023-03-23 10:11:03

据悉,为加快推进全产业链发展,海螺水泥正重点推进骨料项目建设,发展大型化、集约化骨料基地。截至 2022 年底,海螺水泥骨料年产能已突破 1 亿吨。海螺水泥表示“十四五”期间,将加快推进全产业链发展,全力推进砂石骨料产业发展,力争实现3亿吨骨料产能目标。

2023-03-19 13:19:33

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.