in 2022 is characterized by "low demand throughout the year, low peak season and weaker off-season". Low demand led to a decline in cement prices , while coal costs rose significantly year-on-year, under the dual pressure of falling volume and price and rising costs, the industry's efficiency declined sharply.
A few days ago, a number of cement listed companies released their performance in 2022, among which, except Qingsong Jianhua, net profit declined year-on-year, with most enterprises declining by more than 50%.
Conch Cement recently said at a performance conference that in 2022, the domestic cement market demand weakened periodically, the cost of energy consumption was high, and the profits of the cement industry retreated sharply.
Jidong Cement said that due to the increasing downward pressure of the economy and the downturn of the real estate industry, the company's comprehensive sales of cement and clinker declined year-on-year; at the same time, due to the sharp rise in the prices of coal and other major raw materials, the cost of cement and clinker increased year-on-year. During the reporting period, the Company sold a total of 86.88 million tons of cement and clinker, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.88%.
Tapai Group said that in 2022, affected by the epidemic situation and the cumulative effect of real estate regulation, the cement market demand decreased significantly, and the supply-demand relationship was seriously unbalanced, which led to a large decline in cement prices in various regions, and the cement prices in eastern Guangdong continued to fall since the beginning of the year. After entering the traditional sales season in September, it stabilized and rebounded.
Looking forward to the future
, China Building Materials Co., Ltd. believes that the cement industry will still be in a plateau period in the next three to five years. Cautiously optimistic in the short term. It is believed that the overall demand will rise steadily this year. From the perspective of demand structure, the demand for cement driven by infrastructure construction may increase by 3% -5%. The demand for cement brought by real estate may be slightly lower or basically flat. Therefore, judging comprehensively throughout the year, it should be a steady and rising trend.
Judging from the seasonal situation, quarterly improvement, the first quarter is certainly not good, the first quarter because of the continuation of last year's special reasons and the impact of spring, the first quarter is probably the worst quarter of this year, the second quarter may be flat, the third quarter will gradually improve, the fourth quarter probability will increase. China Building Materials Co., Ltd. believes that this year is improving quarter by quarter.
Conch Cement said that in 2023, the government will actively expand effective investment in infrastructure, focusing on promoting high-quality development of manufacturing industry and building a strong manufacturing country, and guiding all kinds of high-quality resource elements to gather in manufacturing industry. We will accelerate the construction of major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan, improve the national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network with railways as the main part, highways as the basis, and give full play to the comparative advantages of water transport and civil aviation, speed up the construction of water infrastructure, and intensify efforts to make up for shortcomings, strengths and weaknesses in key areas. Infrastructure investment has a certain support for cement demand. In terms of
real estate, the state will adhere to the orientation of "no speculation in housing", strengthen the expected guidance of the real estate market, speed up the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel security and simultaneous rent and purchase, steadily implement a long-term mechanism for the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, and do a solid job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood and stability. Stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, and promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model.
In the rural market, the state will comprehensively implement the strategy of rural revitalization and promote rural construction. At present, China's urbanization is still in a relatively rapid development stage, which is expected to provide support for market demand.
At the same time, the state will further promote the prevention and control of environmental pollution, promote the work of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in an orderly manner, and continue the normalization of peak staggering production in the cement industry, which will have a positive effect on the contraction of supply and the elimination of excess capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the supply-demand relationship of the industry may maintain a tight balance.
Jidong Cement believes that the real estate industry is expected to reach the bottom and stabilize in 2023, and the year-on-year decline in new construction and completed area is expected to narrow, but the overall downward trend of real estate will continue;
With the further opening of investment and financing blockages in infrastructure projects, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2023.
It is expected that the annual cement demand in 2023 will be basically the same as that in 2022, with the demand showing the characteristics of low before and high after, weak before and strong after.
Tianrui Group looks forward to 2023, with the convening of the 20th National Congress of the CPC last year, the Central Economic Conference and the National "Two Sessions" this year, as well as the implementation of the spirit and work layout of the conference, a new round of economic growth plan is being launched and implemented. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain or further accelerate growth. In the near future, from the perspective of national and local policies on real estate, real estate will still be one of the important industries of the national economy, and the real estate market is expected to reach the bottom or gradually stabilize.
From the perspective of supply, policies and measures such as "carbon neutralization", environmental protection control and off-peak production are being normalized; the government strictly restricts new capacity, and the standard of capacity replacement is gradually improved, thus curbing the deterioration of excess capacity, and the capacity structure and supply-demand relationship of the cement industry are expected to be further optimized.
Tapai Cement said that the downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction, among which the real estate market is an important variable. With the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures in December 2022, the "16 Financial Articles" and "Three Arrows" policies were introduced to support the development of the real estate industry. The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2023. During the first session of the 14th National People's Congress of Guangdong Province in January
2023, the Guangdong Development and Reform Commission announced 1530 key projects in Guangdong in 2023, with a planned investment of about 1 trillion yuan in 2023. As an important part of steady growth, key projects are expected to boost cement demand to a certain extent.
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