[译文]老牌资本主义帝国-葡萄牙水泥市场解析

2017-09-06 16:16:29

虽然葡萄牙是一个老牌的资本主义国家,但是其国内经济在近代却并不那样出色,在经历2011年的经济危机后,靠着国际货币基金组织和欧盟的援助艰难的走出了经济困境。本文将从水泥行业的角度出发,分析其国内的水泥企业状况和水泥行业的发展。

  葡萄牙,就如同其庞大的邻居西班牙一样,同样也是欧盟和欧元区的成员。葡萄牙在20世纪30年代到70年代之间曾经被独裁者安东尼奥.德奥利维拉.萨拉萨尔(António de Oliveira Salazar)所统治。萨拉萨尔的独裁统治最终结束于1974年的“四二五革命”,葡萄牙迎来了政治和经济解放。

  一、接受救助,经济缓慢回转

  40多年以来,葡萄牙经历着类似西班牙的经济转型,尽管它有时候仍然需要依赖国际货币基金组织的资金资助。2011年,随着葡萄牙一些主要银行出现倒闭关门,大量公私合作伙伴资金外逃,因此葡萄牙获得了来自国际货币基金组织和欧盟1160亿美元的救济。葡萄牙国内生产总值从2008年的2620亿美元下跌13.3%至2012年的2270亿美元。目前尽管目前葡萄牙的失业率高达13%,其经济已经略有改善。(译者按:葡萄牙在接受经济救助后,实行一系列经济财税改革,已经于2014年成功退出欧盟经济救助计划)

  二、两大企业瓜分国内市场

  葡萄牙目前国内拥有八家综合水泥厂,合计产能1240万吨/年,6家综合水泥厂外加一座粉磨站,粉磨站粉磨能力为90万吨每年。

  图1:葡萄牙水泥企业分布图

  数据来源:《世界水泥大全2017》,中国水泥研究院

  其中产能规模最大的是Cimpor水泥工业(Cimpor - Indústriade Cimentos)。该公司于1976年成立于里斯本,但是在2012年成为巴西水泥巨头InterCement的一部分。Cimpor目前在葡萄牙运营者3家综合水泥厂,合计产能820万吨/年。InterCement的另外一家子公司Cimentos de Sines目前在靠近里斯本附近的塞图巴尔运营着葡萄牙唯一的90万吨/年的粉磨站。Cimpor在亚速尔群岛还运营着一个水泥中转库。

  葡萄牙水泥市场上另外一家较大的企业是SECIL,目前其在葡萄牙境内运营着3家综合水泥厂,合计产能420万吨/年,其中还包括80万吨的白水泥产能。SECIL此前由SECIL- Companhia Geral de Cal e Cimento, FLSmidth和Hojgaard & Schultz联合设立,该企业自1930年就开始生产水泥。

 三、国内水泥需求低,出口成主力

  根据美国地质调查局USGS的数据显示,2007年葡萄牙的水泥产量出现急剧上涨,然而随后葡萄牙水泥产量就出现大幅度回落,跌回720万吨的年产量。此后的几年基本保持平稳,略有上涨。

  图2:葡萄牙1997-2013年水泥产量(万吨)

  数据来源:美国地质调查局,中国水泥研究院

  近几年来,因为葡萄牙国内经济的恶化,国内对水泥的需求受到抑制。根据Cimpor的2015年年报数据显示,2015年Cimpor生产了440万吨水泥,其中70%(310万吨)用于出口,国内销量仅仅只有130万吨。根据SECIL的2015年年报数据显示,其国内水泥销量为105万吨,出口157万吨,外销和内销的比例为4比6。

  鉴于这两家企业几乎代表了葡萄牙所有的水泥产能,而且葡萄牙在目前的情况下水泥进口量很低,甚至基本可以说为零,我们据此可以算出葡萄牙2015年的水泥消费量大约在235万吨左右。

  SECIL指出西班牙的水泥产能过剩对葡萄牙的水泥出口来说是一个巨大的挑战。但是无论如何,葡萄牙仍然是一个水泥出口大国,根据2017年《全球水泥大全》的数据显示,葡萄牙水泥产能排名世界第42位,出口水泥排世界第13位。2015年葡萄牙总计出口了价值2.22亿美元的水泥产品。

  根据麻省理工学院经济复杂性观察所统计,2014年葡萄牙水泥的主要进口国是阿尔及利亚(1.4亿美元,占据出口总额的41%),哥伦比亚(2380万美元,6.9%)和佛得角(2030万美元,5.9%)。

  四、长期看好,增长稳定而缓慢

  2016年秋季,欧盟委员会预测,2016年葡萄牙经济增长将达到0.9%,2017年为1.2%,2018年为1.4%。2015年葡萄牙的经济增长为1.6%。Compir和SECIL的2015年的中报显示,两家企业都长期看好葡萄牙市场,指出私人水泥消费市场需求将稳步增加。然而,在可预见的将来,每年700万吨的国内消费量将不再可能出现,缓慢但是稳定的增长将是葡萄牙国内水泥行业的长期趋势。

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