On April 2, the U.S. government announced a "reciprocal tariff" on imports from trading partners, including China, which imposed a 34% reciprocal tariff on China. On April 4, China launched a counterattack, imposing a 34% tariff on all imports originating in the United States. Then on April 7, President Trump said that if China did not withdraw the 34% additional tariff by April 8, the United States would raise the additional tariff on China to 50%. The tariff war between China and the United States escalated in an all-round way, far exceeding market expectations. Judging from the current situation, the "reciprocal tariff" of the United States will not be abolished in the short term, and the tariff war between China and the United States may last for a long time, which will have a far-reaching impact on the development of many industries in China. The author believes that in the short run, the escalation of the Sino-US tariff war has little impact on China's cement industry; in the long run, it will have a positive impact on stimulating domestic consumption, forcing Chinese enterprises to speed up the pace of "going out" and increasing exports. Less exports of cement and clinker
to the United States have little impact on tariff escalation.
In 2018-2019, the United States is China's main trading partner in cement business, and China's exports of cement and clinker to the United States account for more than 20%. In 2019, the United States sharply raised tariffs on Chinese goods, and China's exports of cement and clinker to the United States dropped to 1.2198 million tons, down 39.18% from the same period last year. In 2020, it further shrank to 66,700 tons, and in 2021-2024, it continued to decline, with an annual export volume of less than 10,000 tons. Despite the current Trump administration's extreme pressure on China to raise the cost and price of goods imported from China to the United States, the impact has been relatively limited and overall small when the proportion of cement products exported from China to the United States is very low.
Figure 1: Cement and clinker exports to the United States in recent years are less than 10,000 tons
Data source: Cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
forced to expand domestic demand As one of the "troikas" driving economic growth, stimulating domestic consumption
and exports play an important role in China's economy. In 2024, the contribution rate of exports to economic growth reached 30.30%, the highest level in history. The United States is China's third largest trading partner, with bilateral imports and exports totaling 688.3 billion US dollars in 2024, accounting for 11.2% of China's total imports and exports. Guangdong, Shandong and other places, as major economic provinces, shoulder the heavy responsibility of economic growth, and are also important provinces for the export of cement and clinker products in China. In 2024, the export volume of cement and clinker in the two places was 2,957,600 tons and 424,100 tons respectively, accounting for nearly 63% of the total export volume. The escalation of the tariff war between China and the United States is bound to affect China's commodity exports and foreign trade economy, especially in some export-oriented coastal developed provinces and cities, which may have a greater impact, forcing the country to intensify its efforts to implement the strategy of "expanding domestic demand" and introduce a series of policies to expand investment and consumption increment to hedge the adverse impact of the decline in foreign trade with the United States. It is expected that in the medium and long term, with the support of policies, the decline of cement demand in Guangdong, Shandong and other coastal provinces will be delayed, and there will still be some support, thus boosting market confidence.
Figure 2: Guangdong, Trend of Shandong cement and clinker export volume (10,000 tons)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Accelerate the "the Belt and Road" strategy and increase the "going out" efforts
2024, For the first time, the proportion of "the Belt and Road" countries in China's total import and export value has exceeded 50%, and the contribution rate to China's foreign trade market is nearly 60%, which has become the backbone of promoting China's foreign trade economic growth. In recent years, Chinese-funded cement enterprises have steadily promoted the internationalization process under the national "the Belt and Road" strategic deployment, and have achieved positive results. Up to now, they have laid out clinker production lines in more than 20 countries overseas (most of them are countries along the "the Belt and Road"), with a clinker production capacity of nearly 93 million tons. With the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, it is expected that China will further strengthen its cooperation with "the Belt and Road" countries, which will provide a better opportunity for Chinese-funded cement enterprises to "go out", thus speeding up their internationalization process and alleviating the excess pressure of the domestic industry.
Figure 3: Overseas clinker production capacity of Chinese enterprises continues to expand
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Increase export substitution Export growth
of cement products Since 2023, the downward pressure on China's domestic demand for cement has continued to increase, and the export volume of cement and clinker has ended the downward trend and increased, and the growth momentum will continue in 2024. From January to February 2025, the export volume of China's cement clinker achieved a good start, with a year-on-year increase of 17.46%. At present, China's cement price has become a global depression with certain competitiveness. The author predicts that the escalation of the tariff war between China and the United States will indirectly strengthen communication and cooperation among other countries, and promote Chinese-funded cement enterprises to increase export substitution, thus promoting the continued growth of China's cement exports.
Figure 4: China's Cement and Clinker Export Growth
Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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