2023年上半年水泥市场运行分析与后市展望

2023-08-02 09:43:33

2023年上半年,受宏观经济下行和市场需求不足影响,水泥行业延续2022年以来低迷态势。一季度下游复工情况较好,整体需求好于同期,进入二季度后旺季不旺,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格跌跌不止。上半年,水泥产量创下2012年来新低,尽管煤价有所走低,但水泥行业利润仍出现大幅萎缩。展望2023年下半年,我们认为水泥行业需求相较于上半年会有一定程度好转,价格将会出现季节性反弹,由于需求恢复有限,企业库位较高,价格反弹力度或将有限。全年来看,水泥需求将面临下行压力,行业效益降幅仍大。

2023年上半年,受宏观经济下行和市场需求不足影响,水泥行业延续2022年以来低迷态势。一季度下游复工情况较好,整体需求好于同期,进入二季度后旺季不旺,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格跌跌不止。上半年,水泥产量创下2012年来新低,尽管煤价有所走低,但水泥行业利润仍出现大幅萎缩。展望2023年下半年,我们认为水泥行业需求相较于上半年会有一定程度好转,价格将会出现季节性反弹,由于需求恢复有限,企业库位较高,价格反弹力度或将有限。全年来看,水泥需求将面临下行压力,行业效益降幅仍大。

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The next five years will be a critical period for the transformation, upgrading and development of Shangfeng. Although we are facing all kinds of difficulties and challenges, as long as we continue to carry forward the spirit of perseverance and accumulation of Shangfeng people, make steady progress, unite as one, and go all the way, we will surely be able to achieve the goal of Shangfeng's vision and realize our life value!

2025-04-25 10:26:01

In the first three quarters of 2024, the operation of the industry declined sharply. In the second half of the year, the whole industry gradually changed its concept, the price of cement was gradually restored, and the profits of the industry and enterprises were improved. The company expects that demand will continue to decline in the first half of 2025, but the decline in demand will gradually narrow in the second half of the year. At present, the consensus of the industry against "involution" competition is stronger, the mechanism and methods of peak staggering production are becoming more and more mature, and the foundation of the industry's ecological construction is more solid. The company will earnestly implement the relevant policy requirements against industry involution, inject confidence into the recovery of the industry, and help to achieve a balanced development of social and economic benefits.

2025-04-14 16:38:17

At present, the company has taken Liaoning Jinzhong Company as a platform to promote integration in the Northeast cement market, and has successively acquired Shuangyashan New Age Company and Liaoning Hengwei Cement Group, which has achieved initial results. It has completed the integration of the management and control system of the whole business chain of Shuangyashan New Age Cement, and the integration of Liaoning Hengwei Cement Group is steadily advancing. The next step is to continue to play the role of Liaoning Jinzhong Company.

2025-04-14 13:49:26

The company's overall sales volume in the first quarter was basically the same as the same period last year, the comprehensive price of cement clinker increased by more than 20 yuan/ton, the cost decreased year on year, and the gross profit rate increased significantly. Thank you for your interest.

2025-04-14 10:05:58

At the beginning of last year, in the face of declining demand, domestic cement enterprises, including some leading enterprises, put stabilizing and increasing market share in a prominent position in their work reports at the beginning of the year, and the industry was full of "gunpowder". In contrast, at the beginning of this year, the work reports of major enterprises at the beginning of this year did not focus on market competition and share promotion, but more on stabilizing the situation, anti-involution and increasing efficiency, and the mentality of enterprises in the industry has changed significantly.

2025-04-10 16:35:00

On the basis of the sharp decline in demand in the second half of last year, the company expects that demand will continue to decline in the first half of 2025 due to insufficient rolling of stock projects and the reduction of new start-up projects. However, as the country continues to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and the capital situation is expected to improve, some infrastructure projects have been launched, and the demand decline is expected to gradually narrow in the second half of the year.

2025-04-09 10:16:20

On March 14, the 14th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony hosted by China Cement Network was held in Hangzhou.

2025-03-14 16:25:27

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Northwest China is stable as a whole. The market demand of Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia continued to weaken, the shipments of most cement manufacturers dropped to a low point, and the overall price of cement remained stable.

2025-01-03 17:43:04

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the central and southern regions of Guangdong and northern Guangdong were lowered by about 20 yuan/ton this week, while the Pearl River Delta market was temporarily stable after falling. Cement prices in many places in Guangxi began to decline by 20-30 yuan/ton. Cement prices in the two lakes region are mainly stable, and cement prices in some areas have begun to pull back.

2025-01-03 17:39:32

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in southwest China is weak. In January, Chongqing continued to implement the policy of peak staggering and kiln shutdown for 25 days, which led to a decline in the inventory of enterprises in the region. Recently, some clinker production lines in Yunnan have been stopped at off-peak, and near the end of the year, leading enterprises intend to stabilize prices, and there is no significant change in the quotation of leading enterprises in many places in the week.

2025-01-03 17:36:40

Looking forward to 2025, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to decline under the background that the real estate has not yet stabilized and the infrastructure is limited, but the industry's awareness of "anti-involution" will continue to increase, coupled with the current good start, it is expected that the average price of cement will rise slightly, and the industry's profits will be restored to a certain extent.

2024-12-31 16:06:01

At present, many industries in our country appear market involution, and enterprises are also fighting price war, which seriously affects the profits of enterprises, but also affects the stock prices of many listed companies. Although the occurrence of large-scale industry involution is related to the overcapacity of the industry, it is also related to the competitive concept of enterprises, the low-price bidding of the industry and the blind low-price competition. Therefore, how to carry out healthy competition, how to overcome industry involution, how to carry out reasonable pricing, these are the problems we must face and solve.

2024-12-24 18:33:47

In the first three quarters of 2024, the overall performance of 18 listed companies continued to be poor, with almost all revenues declining, all profits of profitable enterprises declining, and nearly half of them falling into a loss state.

2024-11-22 16:15:43

While seeing the success of the current price rise, the industry should also think about how to make a good start next year and how to develop steadily in the future. The author believes that in the current situation, active production control is the key to maintain a good situation in the cement industry. If production control can not be effectively implemented, even if the cement price is maintained at a relatively reasonable position at the end of this year, the cement price will still be difficult to maintain in the face of severe supply and demand situation after the beginning of next year.

2024-11-20 09:45:47

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to September in 2024 is 1326.7 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%; the industry expects that the profit of the whole industry in the first three quarters is only about 3.1 billion yuan, setting the worst record in decades. With the increasingly fierce competition among cement enterprises and the continuous decline of industry efficiency, how can enterprises adjust their development strategies, cross the industry cycle and usher in a new rise in performance? Only when you know yourself and your enemy can you fight a hundred battles with no danger of defeat. If we can accurately grasp the data of industry production and operation demand in real time, it will be the key factor for enterprises to achieve market breakthroughs.

2024-11-12 10:13:04

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent, and the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages with the support of increasing peak staggering efforts in various regions. It is expected that the results of cement price increase in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-01 11:10:16

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Lanzhou-Baiyin area of Gansu Province has risen by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Shaanxi are stable. Affected by the big drop in temperature, rain and snow before the festival, the market demand in Qinghai has declined significantly. As the weather cleared up, cement sales in the region rebounded, and the market showed signs of warming up.

2024-10-12 17:29:56

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

In the first half of the year, China's cement output fell by 10% year-on-year, the price of P.O42.5 bulk cement fell by 18% year-on-year, both volume and price fell, and the whole industry lost money in the first half of the year, which was rare in history. Similar to the decline in domestic cement demand, cement demand in neighboring South Korea has also fallen sharply this year, but the price performance has been unusually strong. Facing the same decline in demand and overcapacity, why are the prices of the two countries different?

2024-09-18 11:46:02

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

"Reasonable efficiency is the basis and prerequisite for the high-quality development of the industry, and it is necessary to promote the return of industry value." So, what is the reasonable profit of the cement industry?

2024-06-28 09:36:54

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

In Zhou Shanjian's view, as a resource-intensive product, cement's consumption of natural resources and energy should be transformed into equivalent economic and social values to maximize the value of resource utilization.

2024-05-17 13:55:14

At the beginning of April, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 104.8 points, closing at 108.1 points at the end of the month, up 2.51% annually and down 20.36% year-on-year.

2024-05-07 16:54:23

The announcement said that in the first quarter of 2024, due to the downturn of the real estate market, the shortage of project funds and frequent extreme weather, the demand for cement was less than that of the same period last year, and the sales of cement products (cement + clinker) decreased by 14% compared with last year.

2024-04-30 10:48:04

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

Yang Shuiping pointed out that energy conservation and carbon reduction are not contradictory to the benefits of enterprises, but can promote each other and develop together. Cement industry can start from two aspects to ensure enterprise efficiency in the process of promoting carbon reduction.

2024-04-07 10:40:53

Zheng Jianhui expects cement demand to decline by at least 3% in 2024.

2024-04-03 15:12:49

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

The company continues to streamline the organization and optimize personnel, establish and improve the flexible salary system, and constantly reduce costs.

2024-03-26 09:26:35

Enterprises with strong competitiveness and rapid response to the external environment can win the future.

2024-03-19 15:10:10

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

The survival of the fittest and the elimination of uncompetitive production capacity by market competition.

2024-01-16 14:24:36

The price of cement in Chongqing has dropped; the cement industry will be in a difficult period in the next ten years; "rigid capacity reduction" is the feasible solution to resolve overcapacity.

2024-01-12 14:45:33

Recently, the cement network APP video number carried out the online live broadcast of "Sharing Hui Building Materials Observation", and Li Kunming, an analyst of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, looked forward to the cement industry in 2024.

2024-01-12 12:10:02

In this difficult period, how can the building materials industry find a turning point?

2024-01-03 17:44:39

The number of days of off-peak kiln shutdown is increasing rapidly year by year, but the effect of off-peak production is weakening year by year. Especially this year, with the further sharpening of the contradiction between supply and demand, the impact of off-peak kiln shutdown on the cement market has been greatly weakened.

2024-01-02 09:06:26

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Northwest China is weak, the demand in Guanzhong of Shaanxi has reached the peak, but the enterprises have stabilized the price to support the market, and the pressure of dark drop is looming; the price depression in Ningxia continues to impact the market in Gansu and Shaanxi; the situation of maintaining stability in Xinjiang is remarkable.