1 China's Economic Development Achievements
in the Past Decades 1. The annual GDP reached 126 trillion yuan, and the economic strength achieved a historic leap.
2. The total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 47 trillion yuan, making it the second largest consumer market in the world;
3、 enjoys a high degree of economic openness, and its annual import and export value has exceeded 41 trillion yuan, making it a major trading nation in the world.
4. Fiscal revenue has maintained rapid growth, and China's fiscal revenue has exceeded 21 trillion yuan.
5. China's total grain output has remained at more than 1.3 trillion kilograms for nine consecutive years; The total social R & D expenditure on
6、 has exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan, the intensity of R & D investment has increased year by year, and the total number of R & D personnel has steadily ranked first in the world.
7. Over the past decade, more than 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions have been reduced, and the world's largest carbon market and clean power generation system have been established;
8、, the total mileage of China's comprehensive transportation network exceeds 6 million kilometers, and the mileage of high-speed rail and high-speed rail ranks first in the world; The per capita disposable income of residents in
9、 exceeds 3.
Chapter 2 Problems
Facing China 1. Demographic changes
The birth population has fallen too fast; the labor force has reached an inflection point in 2013; The number of people with social burdens is increasing, more and more people are retired and unable to work, and more and more people need medical treatment. In 2022, the number of deaths will exceed the number of births for the first time, and the total population will decrease by 2 million in 2023. With the migration of population, the permanent population of many counties with large population in the central and western regions will be 30% less than the registered population, leaving behind mostly old and weak bachelors; Many counties only rely on transfer payments to support the civil service economy.
2、 education, science and technology, and medical care
fail to educate talents with the spirit of contract, and more than half of the top students will not come back if they go out; fail to educate talents who are willing to contribute, hard-working, and full of innovative spirit; and fail to educate talents who are hard-working and have the courage to contribute. More
talents go abroad, most of them enter the civil service and the central state-owned enterprise system, and private enterprises are short of talents; the level of scientific and technological innovation is low, mainly imitating; pseudo-high knowledge is rampant, and pseudo-science and technology is popular. Corruption is rampant in
public hospitals; highly skilled doctors have gone into business; the health of the nation is poor, and medical expenses cannot make ends meet. The mode
of thinking of the people in
3、 The mode of thinking of some people deviates from the doctrine of the mean, and populism is on the rise. They are not used to anything, and they are eager to overthrow the society. They hate the rich and hate the officials, and they are all thinking about getting rich and becoming officials. They are shouting about dedication to the country, and they are running away in the face of disaster; While shouting patriotism, they secretly went to the United States to give birth to children.
While populism is on the rise, conservatism remains the same. Society has no tolerance for innovation, and as long as innovation fails, everyone is defined as a "bad person"; society only regards "soil" as the orthodox school, does not pay attention to absorbing international cutting-edge technology, and even engages in feudal superstition, making absurd things that violate the common sense of modern science and technology. Over-planning
of
4、, no matter how to plan, will eventually lead to serious overcapacity in various industries; with the support of policies, overcapacity will come earlier and more lethal; the policy shift after overcapacity will lead to rapid credit contraction in a certain industry, which will directly lead to asset depreciation or even bankruptcy of enterprises in the excess industry.
5、 state-owned investment and private
capital, no matter whether there are risks or not, they dare to invest in central state-owned enterprises; central state-owned enterprises enter too many competitive industries, which reduces the space for private economy; private enterprises beg for food from central state-owned enterprises, which incidentally leads to more corruption; Central state-owned enterprises occupy too much resources, which will lead to poor liquidity of assets in the whole society and reduce efficiency; other ownership enterprises lack liquidity, and once they are withdrawn, they are easy to collapse. The effect of
6、 on stimulating consumption has been slow
, and the confrontation between China and the West has intensified, causing damage to exports; the peak of infrastructure and real estate construction has passed, and investment has declined.
Economic development needs to rely more on domestic demand. However, overcapacity and vicious competition have led to the price reduction of various industrial products, the decline of enterprise efficiency, and the reduction of employee income, resulting in sluggish consumption. The serious oversupply of real estate and the excessive decline of house prices have eliminated many middle classes, resulting in sluggish consumption. The cooling of the land market has reduced government revenue, and many civil servants have had their salaries cut, resulting in sluggish consumption; The stock market has been in the doldrums for a long time, the large stocks with few shareholders have risen steadily, the small stocks and new energy stocks with a large number of retail investors have fallen into a mess, and the lack of wealth effect has led to sluggish consumption.
7、 government policy subsidies for battery cars, photovoltaic, hydrogen and other new energy sources are too large
, and local governments have increased government subsidies at all levels, resulting in abnormal development of the industry and excessive consumption of national financial resources; the country's strong environmental protection and carbon reduction, many indicators exceed the international advanced level, excessive investment, excessive consumption of national financial resources; The proportion of medical insurance reimbursement is too high, and some people are reimbursed 100%, which excessively consumes the national financial resources; state-owned assets purchase a large number of operating assets with low liquidity, which consumes the national financial resources. The government is heavily involved in micro-management, rather than delegating power to social autonomy, which consumes the national financial resources. The purpose of
the proletarian revolution
8、 the instability of asset prices is not to eliminate assets, but to establish a better asset system, create more wealth, and let more people distribute wealth and own assets reasonably. Only when more people realize the preservation and appreciation of assets and produce wealth effect, can consumption have a basis and the internal circulation of the economy become more and more smooth. Agricultural assets, industrial assets, technological assets, financial securities assets, mineral resources, land and real estate, and so on, all need to use appropriate economic means to keep the value of assets rising steadily. To avoid a sharp rise in asset prices, we must avoid a sharp fall in asset prices. The state has been fully aware of
the above problems and is taking various measures to deal with them. Everyone is also actively offering suggestions and sharing the fate with the country. The author believes that an important way for China's economy to achieve transformation and development and avoid the middle-income trap lies in the long-term stability and slight rise of asset prices, so the third chapter below focuses on it separately.
The third chapter is to realize the steady rise of asset prices, which is the basis
of stable economic growth. 1. Price is value
. Ordinary people can not distinguish between "value" and "price". When communicating with ordinary people, we do not need to distinguish between "price" and "value". When the price of an asset rises from 100,000 yuan to 1 million yuan, ordinary people usually think that the value has risen from 100,000 yuan to 1 million yuan. They will think that they have earned 900,000 yuan and that they have money, so they will expand their consumption! The balanced rise of
asset prices will drive consumption growth, bring about economic growth, drive asset prices up, and the positive cycle will continue; the decline of asset prices will lead to consumption contraction, bring about negative economic growth, bring about further decline of asset prices, and the negative cycle will make the economy slide into the abyss; The economic accountability behaviors in the negative cycle period essentially aggravate the contraction; the measures to increase revenue and reduce expenditure in the negative cycle period are essentially the behavior of micro-individuals to survive and die together. Important
social prices include real estate prices, land prices, listed stock prices, asset prices of unlisted enterprises, prices of basic agricultural products, prices of basic industrial products, prices of ordinary consumer goods, prices of luxury goods, prices of services, and prices of human resources, all of which need to maintain a steady rise. How can
2、 achieve a steady rise in property prices? The value of real estate in
core cities is rising steadily. The methods are as follows:
(1) The central government invests in the establishment of a stable real estate company to purchase unlimited real estate below the set price in typical residential areas of core first-and second-tier cities. For example, the house price of Wuhan Evergrande Palace is 25000 yuan per square meter. When the market appears below the house of 22500 yuan per square metre, it will be purchased.
(2) When the price of the residential area rises more than the set price, for example, more than 25000 yuan per day, it will be sold.
(3) Set up the second-hand house price index of the city by taking the house price of the typical residential area of the city. Only when the index exceeds the set value, the new land supply is allowed. The new land supply is supplied on demand at the set price, unlimited, and as much as the demand is. The new houses need to be sold in full, and the space for speculation is closed.
Stable and transparent financial policy for real estate, set the real estate credit policy in advance when the price of real estate rises and falls, every time the price of real estate rises by more than 5%, the whole society is required to reduce the new payment for real estate by 20% until no new payment is added. Stabilize expectations, tighten up ahead of time, and roughly limit speculation within the scope.
(4) Real estate is purchased at the bottom every year, and the purchase price rises by 1% every year, which stabilizes the price expectation, stabilizes the value of real estate, and makes the speculators have no room to speculate. How can
3、 achieve a steady rise in the stock market? For example, a new Shanghai and Shenzhen 1000 constituent stock index will be set up, with 5000 points as the base, and the 2024 stock index space will be set at 5000-6000 points. When the index is lower than 5000 points, the constituent stocks will be purchased in proportion until the index recovers to 5000 points; when the index exceeds 5500 points, the stocks will be gradually sold in proportion and the issuance of stocks will be resumed; when the index exceeds 6000 points, all stocks will be gradually sold and the issuance of stocks will be increased. The issuance and financing quota is linked to the index, and the linkage formula is determined in advance to block the speculation space. It is suggested that the annual upward movement of
stock index space should be controlled at 3-5% to guide small and medium-sized enterprises and the middle class to invest surplus funds in the capital market. How can
4、 achieve a steady rise in the price of traditional industrial products? Taking cement as an example, the advanced production capacity is 3.6 billion tons, and the market demand will shrink to 1 billion tons in 20 years. Only relying on market competition to reduce production capacity will never catch up with the decline in demand, the industry will lack added value for a long time, and the whole industry will continue to lose money.
Traditional industries need to implement a planned economy with the means of capacity regulation, which aims to maintain the market value within a reasonable range. For example, in 2024, the average ex-factory price of cement in a province is controlled at 330-360 yuan/ton. If the price is lower than 330 yuan/ton, all enterprises will stop production until the price rises to 330 yuan/ton or above. On the contrary, if the price is higher than 360 yuan/ton, all enterprises will be required to resume production and control the price.
Traditional industrial products are just needed products, and only by controlling and stabilizing the exit price can we achieve the goal of stabilizing employment, tax revenue and employee income, thus contributing to the promotion of consumption. The upward movement of the price space of
traditional industrial products is suggested to be controlled at 2 to 4% per year. How can the
5、 achieve a steady rise in grain prices? The price difference between purchase and sale is subsidized by the central government. Tariffs on
imported grain have been raised to keep pace with domestic prices. It will not be expanded here.
6、 liberalize the price of innovative products, market regulation is the main
innovation product, iteration is very fast, product price is mainly market regulation; high price and high profit of new products can effectively stimulate innovation.
7、 liberalize the price control of luxury goods in order to increase tax revenue
instead of taking measures to curb luxury consumption, which is essentially a consumption tax and face tax for the wealthy class. Chapter
4 How will China maintain its development
in the future? 1. Attaching importance to the construction
of the main body of debt. The traditional agricultural society is an economic model characterized by self-sufficiency, and its economic growth is extremely slow.
Modern society is an economic model characterized by specialized production and commodity sales and exchange, which is characterized by the need for money as an exchange carrier. The original intention of
money is the intermediary of commodity valuation. After a long time of circulation, people regard money as "money". The money in circulation and the total value of assets denominated in money become the total amount of social wealth. Taxes, wages and profits generated in the process of commodity production and trading are also paid and stored in the form of money.
Some social organizations and individuals save part of their income, which leads to the withdrawal of production factors from the market, resulting in deflation and a decline in consumption and production; another part of social organizations and individuals lend out the new money issued by the state and the money saved by the society for the expansion of consumption and production, thus realizing the increase in asset value and consumption and production.
Please be kind to the debtors, who are the core driving force to maintain the normal operation of the social economy.
2、 adjust the direction
of macroeconomic regulation and control (1) to predict population trends, new money should be used more to slow down the rate of population decline, to give a lot of money to families with more children;
(2) Predict the trend of housing prices, new money should be used more to stabilize the price of stock property, and strictly control the construction of new houses; excessive provision of land is a poison to housing prices, which will lead to a serious shrinkage of social wealth!!! Be careful!!! If the revenue and market value of a private enterprise exceed 300 billion yuan, it must be split; if it cannot be split, a punitive income tax shall be imposed. The scale of
state-owned enterprises is too large, leading to a decline in efficiency. State-owned enterprises whose revenues and market value exceed 500 billion yuan must be split up; those that cannot be split up must be subject to punitive income tax.
The 3、 attaches importance to the balanced impact
of pollution control and economic development.
4. The promotion of GDP growth
through quality improvement is not carried out
. 5. To promote GDP growth
through innovation and development, we should not start to talk about
6. To improve the throttle and brake
of the legal system, we should prevent the throttle from being too fast and the brake from being too fast. Don't expand on it. Chapter
5 The future
of China's cement industry 1. The existing means of competition fail
. It is not feasible to use price competition to clear excess capacity. It is increasingly difficult to pursue short-term benefits through synergy. Improving quality = reducing costs ≠ improving efficiency.
2、 demand is falling off a cliff.
Don't dream of demand recovery; don't dream of it! It is highly probable that demand will fall to less than 1 billion tons in 10 years!
(2) Accelerate integration, clear excess advanced production capacity and restore industry value! Restoring reasonable prices and achieving effective sales will enable enterprises to make profits to compensate for the loss of assets caused by the clearance of excess advanced production capacity!
(3) Adjust the mentality of the industry, put down the obsession of competition, put down the obsession of winning, put down the obsession of thousands of years, dirt in those years, not to mention Qin Shihuang in those years!
