2025, Pakistan's cement exports suffered a cliff-like decline, and the continued tension on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and the stagnation of customs clearance brought a heavy blow to this pillar industry. According to the data of the All-Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA), the export volume of cement in that month fell 26.53% year-on-year to 590,200 tons, compared with 803,300 tons in the same period in 2024, which is the third consecutive month of double-digit decline, after 23% and 15% decline in October and September, respectively.
While export markets are bleak, domestic demand is showing signs of a weak recovery. Local cement shipments in November rose 2.23% year-on-year to 3.55 million tons, up from 3.47 million tons in the same period last year, but this was not enough to make up for the export gap, resulting in a 3.17% decline in total shipments to 4.14 million tons. From the perspective of regional distribution, the northern factories were the most severely impacted by the border closure, with the domestic shipment volume of 3.02 million tons basically the same as the same period last year, but the export business was almost completely stagnant; the total shipment volume of the southern factories was 1.12 million tons, down 11.49% year-on-year, and the export was not spared, down 7.08% to 590,000 tons. However, in the overall performance of the first five months of fiscal year 2025 to 2026, the industry still maintained a growth trend, with a cumulative shipment of 21.45 million tons, an increase of 11.54% over the same period last year, of which 17.44 million tons were domestic shipments, an increase of 14.7%, indicating that the market base is still stable. The interruption of
border trade began on October 11, 2025, and the closure measures implemented with the deterioration of relations between the two countries not only blocked the export of cement, but also cut off the important energy supply of Afghan coal. In order to maintain production, northern cement producers have been forced to urgently turn to imported coal from South Africa, Indonesia and Mozambique, resulting in a sharp rise in costs. The price of local Dara coal soared from 30,000 to 32,000 rupees per ton to 42,000 to 45,000 rupees, while Afghan coal, originally 30,000 to 38,000 rupees per ton, was completely withdrawn from the market. Some manufacturers have made it clear that due to the lack of banking channels and transportation difficulties, Iran can not become an alternative option, and supply chain restructuring faces practical obstacles. In
this crisis, the business structure of some enterprises has put them under greater pressure. Pakistan's exports of Cherat Cement, Fauji Cement and Maple Cement to Afghanistan accounted for 9.8%, 5.8% and 3.1% of its sales, respectively, with significant risk exposure. DG Khan Cement has announced that it will continue to use imported coal as a long-term strategy, while some companies have begun to purchase RB2 grade coal to cope with the shortage. The tough stance of the
Pakistani government has further complicated the situation. At the opening ceremony of FoodAg 2025 in Karachi, the Federal Minister of Commerce stressed that the resumption of trade would be impossible unless Kabul took substantial measures to prevent cross-border terrorist infiltration and destroy relevant strongholds. He said that although Pakistan was willing to bear the loss of trade, it would never compromise on security issues. Official figures show that the disruption of trade between the two countries is costing more than 1 billion rupees ( $3.54 million) a day, with hundreds of containers stranded at major border crossings such as Tokham and Chaman, and the supply chain in chaos.
In the context of the bilateral stalemate, the international community began to intervene in mediation. Russia and Iran have offered to help promote peaceful dialogue, while the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry has continued to call on the government to break the trade impasse as soon as possible. It is worth noting that some analysts believe that although the border closure has caused a heavy blow to exports, it may objectively slow down the inflow of smuggled goods from Afghanistan into Pakistan. Two rounds of talks held so far in Qatar and Turkey have failed to produce a breakthrough, and the construction industry in Afghanistan has begun to feel the ripple effects of the shortage of cement supply. When the trade crisis triggered by geopolitics will be resolved is still an unknown number hanging over the entire industrial chain.
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