On September 16, the 2023 High-level Forum on Global Energy Transition was held in Beijing. Liu Jizhen, professor of North China Electric Power University and academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, made a keynote report on Energy Transition and New Power System at the forum.
Academician Liu Jizhen pointed out that we must have a clear understanding of energy storage. Energy storage is not omnipotent. In the future, energy storage will play a role in the new power system and the energy system with new energy as the main body after energy transformation, but it is very limited! The distribution of this trace amount to all countries in the world is really insignificant.
The following is a transcript of the report. I think this topic is very appropriate to
participate in the "Energy Storage Industry-University-Research Integration Development Forum". In other words, energy storage has become a very active field in the whole society and all countries in the world under the background of our energy transformation and the construction of new power systems.
Before the meeting, we were also actively communicating. In fact, from the State Council to the relevant departments of the state, since May, the Chinese Academy of Engineering has been commissioned twice to provide research reports on the situation, development prospects, bottlenecks and countermeasures of the energy storage industry.
Conceptually speaking, what is the position of energy storage when we build a new power system and realize the transformation of energy? Which direction should we go? Is it according to the current state that thousands of troops are doing energy storage? Where is the risk? In addition, what does the new power system actually look like from the technical level?
Electricity is the movement of electrons, and the speed is 300,000 kilometers per second, which is a great innovation in the field of human science and technology and engineering that has brought fundamental changes to people's production and life. Such a system, which is also a material conversion from the generation of charge on the power supply side to the use of charge in any way (light, heat, work), is completed instantaneously at the speed of light, such as the sound and light we produce now consume energy, which may also be a fan in Zhangjiakou. Its instantaneous energy is absorbed in an instant, and when it is gone, it is finished. Why? What is the biggest disadvantage of charge?
Someone said, "Do you want to be so pessimistic?"? I said, "Yes, I look forward to solving this energy storage problem, but" quantitative change "and" qualitative change "are the basic concepts of philosophy. When I have no way out, I say: can water be stored? But from the beginning of Dayu's flood control, can we take the recent flood in Beijing in the north?
Therefore, we must have a clear understanding of energy storage. Energy storage is not omnipotent. In the future, the new power system and the energy system with new energy as the main body after energy transformation will play a role in energy storage, but it is very limited! A power system like "source-network-load", through our digitalization, informatization, especially intellectualization, is called "multi-source complementarity, source-network coordination, supply-demand interaction, flexible intelligence", which is a dynamic system that does not know how to balance and operate, to form a new type of power system.
So I'm going to talk about the new power system first. As for the new power system, we all know that several industrial revolutions have brought about the energy revolution, especially the fourth industrial revolution, because the fourth industrial revolution lists a lot, in fact, it is a whole. First of all, it has clean energy, artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum information, virtual reality, biotechnology and so on, which are the connotations of our new industrial revolution in the future.
Of course, our current situation, China's energy situation and European and American countries can not be compared, in a word, we are still in a "coal-based energy era", compared with Europe and the United States, nearly 70-80 years behind, the energy revolution of oil and gas replacing coal in Europe and the United States has been completed, and we are unlikely to complete this energy revolution now. So now we use more than half of the world's coal, a quarter of the world's total energy consumption, and we emit nearly a third of the carbon dioxide. This is our national condition.
Some people say that our country is "rich in coal, poor in oil and little in gas." I said: Wrong, we are lagging behind an era! Coal in the United States and Russia is many times richer than ours! Now the proportion of coal used in the United States is similar to that in the 1950s. What is its increment? Over the years, the United States is now the main oil, natural gas, and later the development of nuclear energy, it is standing on such an energy structure to achieve "double carbon.". Looking at ourselves, so far, coal accounts for more than 50% of our energy consumption.
Therefore, we should face the national conditions of our country and vigorously promote the clean fossil energy, the scale of clean energy and the integration of various energy sources. Coal, in particular, is an energy category that we have relied on for a long time. This is not an emotional issue. "Double carbon" is not to kill coal with seven hands and eight feet. The Party Central Committee is now vigorously saying that we must do a good job in this big article on coal.
Therefore, in recent years, the national energy policy has been constantly adjusted and more pragmatic. As an overall strategy, especially including the second meeting of the Leading Group of Deep Reform in July this year, it was once again proposed that "we should deepen the reform of the power system and speed up the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and abundant, economic and efficient, supply-demand coordination, flexible and intelligent new power system." We will better promote the revolution in energy production and consumption and ensure national energy security.
Just now, leaders also talked about energy security. Now we call it the "twenty-character policy of energy transformation", which emphasizes several points in particular:
The first is to emphasize "safety and abundance", which is safety and abundance, not shortage. Our overall energy supply capacity is good now, but there are accidents from time to time. This summer, some areas are short of electricity, and it is very difficult to ensure supply. Even for an hour, you have to have plenty.
The second one emphasizes "economy and efficiency". When talking about technology, don't throw away the economy. Now in this society, hydrogen energy, energy storage, this, that and CCUS can be used for a while. I say you can calculate the economic accounts. Can thermal power plants be fully equipped with CCUS? Others say CCUS, and I say can coal price be doubled again? So why do we talk about "technical economy"? Therefore, we must consider the coordination of supply and demand, and the direction of development is "flexible intelligence".
We can all take a look at energy storage. Don't misunderstand me: Academician Liu seems to have a problem with energy storage. That's not true at all. This is not the case. We are calling for the integration of industry, education and research, so that energy storage can go on the right path and play its due role, just like playing a chess game. It's not that we don't like "cars, horses and cannons", but that we can deploy them well and use them to win the chess game. This is what we need. So the overall energy storage is a big article, with great prospects, we dream of safe, efficient, economic energy storage technology, if we conquer, then we achieve this energy transformation, "double carbon" goal is very ideal.
Globally, the scale of energy storage projects put into operation in 2022 has reached 240 million kilowatts (this 2. The new scale is 30 million, doubling that of 2021, focusing on China, Europe and the United States, which account for 36%, 26% and 24% respectively, indicating a good development trend.
But why talk about new energy storage? For example, our pumped storage should not be included in the new energy storage.
We focus on electrochemical energy storage, which is currently the main body of growth. In 2022, the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in the world will reach 45 million kilowatts, with a growth rate of 80%, of which lithium batteries are dominant. Is this number big? How much of a role will it play
in the future? Besides, where can these energy storage be installed in the future?
For instance the policy of the country says "scenery matches store", I also always criticize them, I say: What to match it to do? This is not nonsense, if 2 yuan, save up to spend 1 yuan, have you calculated this account? The grid side says to build an energy storage power station. Why do you build it? How long will it take? How capable are you?
Now from a worldwide perspective, especially in the European Union countries, two places use more, one is the user side, because like the United States, we may store a lot of energy exports, in the United States exports are good, its electricity price is the market price, and some even have a difference of ten times or even a hundred times, that is, in the case of extreme electricity prices, electricity prices soar. At this time, some users, such as a large shopping mall, which has a lot of open space, build a few kilowatt-hours of energy storage power station. When raising the price of electricity, I don't use yours, I use my energy storage power station, insist on this 24 hours, 8 hours, it is rewarding, cheap and commercialized.
There are also some distributed rooftop photovoltaics, which become a relatively stable power supply system with energy storage. Therefore, the application on the demand side is much better than that on the network side and the source side. Such problems, sometimes our research may not be enough, starting from the concept, "scenery allocation and storage" this path is certainly not a correct path. The distribution of this trace amount to all countries in the world is really insignificant. Does the construction of
new power systems, including the current Shago Desert and so on, have to rely on new energy storage on a larger scale? There is no argument! How big is the investment? How high is the operating cost? Because of the forum, we discuss some questions, even if we don't give the answer.
So our country now has a total of 8.7 million kilowatts of new energy storage, and the total energy storage is 18.05 million kilowatt-hours. Of course, lithium batteries have an absolute advantage. From the point of view of technical route and cost, there are some data here, which is not the key. We can see that its cost will gradually decrease with the maturity of technology. This is what I mentioned just now. First of all, from the short-term, long-term and long-term perspective, we must make clear the positioning of energy storage.
First of all, we hope that energy storage can promote the large-scale development and absorption of new energy. Taking Shagehuang Base as an example, now "new energy with thermal power, with pumped storage", such a necessary electrochemical energy storage ratio is needed, but it is necessary to find out how much to allocate and how to use.
The second is to support the safe and stable operation of the power grid. When it comes to the security and stability of the power grid, this is a big thing. We have talked about the security and stability of the power grid in some scenarios. What role can energy storage play? Especially in recent years, we have done practical research and application in this area. For example, a power plant in Ningxia has made a 1.
What do I compare it to? So now it is expanding its scale and making it bigger in several other factories. Yesterday, I called and said that our project had just won the first prize, and it had not been finished yet. I said that it ranked first, and everyone highly praised it. Explain that this thing is useful: economical, reliable, and effective! Another is to ensure users' flexible and efficient use of electricity. From the point of view of technology demand, the application scenario, energy storage scale, energy storage duration and application area of
new energy storage development technology should be clarified. Then for other kinds of technologies, because energy storage is a family, we must know that when it comes to energy storage, we just talked about pumped storage, flywheel, compressed air, even heat storage, hydrogen production, biomass fuel and so on. Batteries placed in the car require small size and high energy density. If they are placed in the energy storage box in Shagao, they require reasonable price, safety and reliability, and do not catch fire. If you are large in size, there is plenty of space, so this is the choice of technical route.
We need to carry out demonstration projects for new energy storage technologies, and practice the true knowledge. Only in the process of project demonstration, can we find and solve problems, instead of sitting and talking out of thin air. In this process, we have always adhered to the integration of production, education and research, and we must put the solution of major technical problems in the first place, and the core is to focus on low cost, high security and scale.
To put energy storage in our new power system, there are two problems:
the first is where to put it? Where to put the "source", "lotus" and "net"? So there are two core elements, one is safety, and the other is economy. If we grasp these points, our work will be effective, and we will achieve the "twenty-character policy" just mentioned-clean and low-carbon, safe and abundant, economic and efficient, supply and demand coordination, flexible and intelligent.
Finally, the new power system is a new structure, its form is revolutionary, at the same time, from its perception, detection, control, operation are bound to move towards a comprehensive intelligent and information technology.
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