市场行情逐步平稳 部分地区水泥价格开始反弹!

2023-08-13 10:43:41

尽管当前需求无明显改善,但各地价格跌至低位,企业涨价意愿强烈,预计下周水泥价格或将逐步企稳。

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收109.44点,环比下跌0.36%,同比下跌23.25%。本周五,长江流域水泥价格指数(YRCEMPI)报收100.55点,环比上周下跌0.34%。

全国气温仍偏高,部分地区雨水天气较多,当前市场需求整体疲弱,但有些地区价格跌至低位,加之错峰带动,涨价意愿强烈。

整体来看,尽管全国水泥价格行情延续淡季跌势,但跌幅继续收窄,不少地区逐步开始企稳。

本周全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收119.75点,环比上周下跌1.84%。本周熟料价格继续下降。

图1:水泥价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

图2:熟料价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

具体而言

华东地区

高温天气影响,江苏地区市场需求淡季维稳运行,企业出货量不高,主要厂家水泥报价基本稳定

近期浙江地区雨水天气减少,需求较7月有所好转,水泥报价暂稳

高温及雨水天气影响,安徽地区工地及搅拌站施工进度放缓,整体市场需求偏弱运行,行情偏稳运行

福建地区仍有雨水天气影响,终端市场需求表现低迷,但价格跌至低位,继续下调可能性不大;

山东地区雨水天气较少,天气相对适宜,但除个别重点工程外,整体市场需求表现依旧不佳,局部市场水泥价格小幅下滑10元/吨左右;

高温阴雨天气影响,江西南昌地区市场需求表现疲软,上旬下调水泥价格10-30元/吨不等。

华北地区

近期受台风影响雨水天气增加,水泥市场需求下降,或受错峰带动,河北地区有意推涨水泥价格,主要起到喊涨止跌的效果;

京津地区水泥需求仍偏弱运行,本周报价暂稳

河南地区价格上调后对山西的冲击减弱,近日临汾、运城地区尝试通知上调水泥价格30元/吨,具体落实待观察。

西南地区

雨水天气较多,市场需求疲软,加之限电结束,企业陆续恢复生产,10日起四川广元、巴中地区下调水泥价格30元/吨,月初南充地区小幅下调水泥价格10元/吨

阴雨天气影响,市场需求表现欠佳,上旬以来重庆渝西北地区下调水泥价格10-20元/吨;

前期贵州地区水泥价格普遍跌至低位,企业经营压力较大,9-10日起黔西南地区上调水泥价格30元/吨,调涨落实情况待观察;

近期云南雨水天气较多,加之资金紧张等因素影响,工地及搅拌站开工率不足,上旬大理、丽江地区下调水泥价格20-30元/吨,周边玉溪、昆明地区小幅下调水泥价格10元/吨

中南地区

高温、阴雨天气影响,湖南地区整体市场需求销量疲软,企业出货情况较差,7日前后长株潭、益阳、常德、娄底等地下调水泥价格10-20元/吨

随着河南方向涨价带动,湖北地区企业涨价意愿强烈,襄阳地区上调水泥价格30元/吨,落实情况有待观察;

两广地区市场需求依旧偏弱,企业库存普遍高位运行,但前期水泥价格跌至低位,主导企业有意复价上调水泥价格,目前西江通航恢复,广西地区水泥进入广东增多,两地涨价难度较大,整体价格企稳为主

为提升盈利,加之20日起错峰停窑带动,11日起河南第二轮推动上调高标水泥价格30元/吨,低标10元/吨,本轮推涨能否继续落实有待观望。

西北地区

大多数市场处于年中淡季,企业出货量不佳,库存普遍中高位运行。陕甘宁地区行情弱势运行,大厂报价稳定,市场价格较不明朗;

青海地区行情平稳为主,水泥报价暂无明显变动

新疆伊犁地区项目开工情况相对较好,加之原材成本仍在高位,区域内厂家涨价意愿强烈,10日起上调水泥价格10-20元/吨,具体落实待观察。此外,市场竞争较为激烈,近期克州地区水泥价格下跌30元/吨

东北地区

受台风影响,黑吉辽地区多地出现强降雨天气,施工活动有所减少,水泥需求表现低迷,厂家发货量不佳。企业报价以稳为主,水泥行情稳中弱势下行。

后市预测:尽管当前需求无明显改善,但各地价格跌至低位,企业涨价意愿强烈,预计下周水泥价格或将逐步企稳。

为积极响应国家环保政策,贯彻绿色低碳发展理念,2023年9月12-13日,中国水泥网将在河南郑州举办“2023水泥‘双碳’大会暨第十届中国水泥节能环保技术交流大会”,助力水泥行业向更低碳、更节能、更绿色的高质量发展迈进。

会议同期将举行“2023水泥行业‘双碳’先进企业”颁奖仪式以及“双碳”装备展,会后还将组织参观济源中联水泥有限公司“全球首条钢渣捕集水泥窑烟气CO2制备固碳辅助性胶凝材料与低碳水泥生产线”

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Correlation

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

In September, on the supply side, the current storage level is relatively high, enterprises in many places continue to carry out self-discipline self-help activities, continue to carry out off-peak shutdown, and it is expected that the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; on the demand side, the high temperature weather gradually exits, coupled with the acceleration of the issuance of special bond funds, downstream construction activities will be strengthened, and it is expected that the terminal demand will usher in a turning point; in summary, the supply-demand relationship may improve in September. In addition, after two months of decline in cement prices in July-August, the market has a strong willingness to raise prices, and it is expected that cement prices will show a strong trend of volatility in September.

2024-09-10 13:14:43

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Rainfall continued in many parts of the country, local typhoons invaded, downstream construction was slow, and concrete prices fell steadily. From July 18th to July 24th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.05 points, down 0.58%.

2024-07-26 20:17:51

Affected by the traditional off-season, the overall price of concrete in the central and southern market is weak and stable.

2024-07-26 15:35:59

From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase.

2024-07-25 10:00:09

Traditional investment in infrastructure construction is difficult to support strong demand for cement.

2024-05-30 16:02:02

According to the market data of China Cement Net, the price of cement in Guizhou has bottomed out and rebounded. Around the 20th, enterprises in most parts of the province notified the price of cement to be raised by 20-50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-05-24 15:36:32

The reduction of new construction projects and the weakness of infrastructure have a direct impact on cement demand.

2024-05-21 09:52:34

At the beginning of April, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 104.8 points, closing at 108.1 points at the end of the month, up 2.51% annually and down 20.36% year-on-year.

2024-05-07 16:54:23

Data show that from January to March 2024, Ningxia's cement output was 1.0661 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 46.9%, making it the province with the largest decline in cement production in China.

2024-04-25 13:47:41

According to China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, more than 90% of cement enterprises will fall into losses in the first quarter.

2024-04-23 14:31:56

The downstream construction in the northern region is still general, the demand recovery is less than expected, and the cement price is weak and stable; the shipment in some parts of the southern region has improved, coupled with the long-term low price operation, the enterprise has a strong willingness to raise prices. Generally speaking, the recovery of demand is limited, but driven by the general rise in the Yangtze River Delta region, the national cement price has stopped falling and turned to rise.

2024-04-15 15:30:35

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the overall market demand and sales in southwest China are still weak, cement prices in Chongqing have bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprises in Yunnan Pu'er and Xishuangbanna have once again tried to raise cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-04-12 17:22:16

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in 2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation?

2024-01-23 09:30:22

According to the data center of China Cement Network, due to the low temperature and rainy weather, the market demand and sales declined, and the price of cement in the two lakes and parts of Henan Province dropped by 10-30 yuan/ton in the week. The price of bagged cement in individual markets in Guangdong will be raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-01-19 16:02:53

The price of Yueyang Cement in Hunan and Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang Cement in Sichuan has dropped; recognizing the situation is the first barrier for Henan Cement in the new year; 28 production lines will be put into production in 2024.

2024-01-19 13:11:00

Influenced by factors such as increased supply, poor demand recovery, financial pressure, lower cost and intensified competition, the overall price of cement market fell in 2023.

2024-01-18 15:42:50

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2024-01-18 13:22:48

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2024-01-12 12:10:02

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2024-01-03 17:44:39

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2024-01-02 15:58:24

2023年,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥行业发展景气度继续下降。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期;二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低;四季度需求弱势恢复,水泥价格小幅上涨。总体来看,2023年水泥产量创下近13年新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥价格降幅较深,行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2024年,我们认为地产对水泥需求拖累减弱,水泥产量或将小幅下降,产能过剩压力下水泥价格中枢下移,行业效益难言乐观。

2023-12-22 17:20:42

11月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为109.69点,月末报收113.13点,环比上涨3.16%,同比下跌25.74%。

2023-12-01 17:06:06

前三季度全国累计水泥产量创近13年以来同期最低,预计行业利润同比降幅仍达60%左右,企业亏损面扩大。

2023-11-08 09:20:21

据了解,今年前9个月,二连口岸出口水泥5.3万吨,比去年同期增加11.3倍;价值1815.7万元,增长11.2倍。

2023-11-06 17:04:27

按六大区域划分,上市公司在华北、华东以及中南地区水泥营收总体降幅较大。其中,华东和中南地区价格竞争充分,降价风险已基本释放,后续价格存在回升空间,但节奏仍有待观察……

2023-10-30 19:14:58

多地错峰停窑,水泥价格继续上涨;天山股份、海螺水泥和中国建材股份三季度业绩下滑;高铁建设加快,低碱水泥助力打通交通“大动脉”。

2023-10-30 13:52:54

但总的来看,全国水泥价格继续反弹。

2023-10-30 09:42:25

2023年前三季度,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥需求疲软,行业低迷运行。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期,二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低。前三季度水泥产量创下近13年来新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥行业利润仍出现大幅萎缩。展望四季度,我们认为水泥行业需求可能不及同期,由于需求弱势,加之企业库位较高,价格上涨阻力重重,均价或仍将下降。全年来看,水泥需求将面临较大下行压力,行业效益降幅仍大。

2023-10-24 17:06:00

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2023-09-19 09:23:38

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2023-09-01 18:09:58

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2023-08-14 13:42:35

尽管当前需求无明显改善,但各地价格跌至低位,企业涨价意愿强烈,预计下周水泥价格或将逐步企稳。

2023-08-13 10:43:41

现如今华东水泥价格指数只有99.55,已经低于2009年。

2023-08-09 15:19:03

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,本周两湖局部市场仍有小幅下跌,两广地区部分企业水泥价格触底反弹,主导企业酝酿上调。

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2023-08-04 13:29:39

综上来看,需求仍较疲弱,供应出现收缩,同时企业高库存压制下价格上行乏力,但最差的情况可能已经过去,水泥价格继续大幅下跌空间不大,预计将低位探底回升,8月水泥价格降幅或将明显收窄。

2023-08-04 09:43:53

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2023-08-02 13:49:05

2023年上半年,受宏观经济下行和市场需求不足影响,水泥行业延续2022年以来低迷态势。一季度下游复工情况较好,整体需求好于同期,进入二季度后旺季不旺,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格跌跌不止。上半年,水泥产量创下2012年来新低,尽管煤价有所走低,但水泥行业利润仍出现大幅萎缩。展望2023年下半年,我们认为水泥行业需求相较于上半年会有一定程度好转,价格将会出现季节性反弹,由于需求恢复有限,企业库位较高,价格反弹力度或将有限。全年来看,水泥需求将面临下行压力,行业效益降幅仍大。

2023-08-02 09:43:33

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.