Recently, cement companies have released their first quarter results, which are basically losses. For example, CNBM expects a net profit loss of RMB 1.3 billion in the first quarter; Shanshui Cement expects a net profit loss of about RMB 808 million in the first quarter; Asia Cement (China) expects a net profit loss of RMB 130 million in the first quarter of 2024. The report mentioned that the main reason for the loss was the decline in product prices.
From the perspective of the whole industry, how many cement enterprises will lose money in the first quarter of 2024? According to China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, more than 90% of cement enterprises will fall into losses in the first quarter. There are two main reasons: First, the first quarter of cement prices fell significantly; Second, cement demand has shrunk seriously. In the
first quarter of
2024, there was almost no decent rebound in the national cement price trend, and the price went down all the way. By the end of March, the national cement price index recorded 105.45 points, down 7% from the beginning of January and 25.4% from the same period last year.
Regionally, in 31 provinces (cities), except Tibet and Xinjiang, cement prices in the remaining 29 provinces declined year on year, and the decline was deeper. Especially in the southern region, the decline is between 20% and 30%, and the price of cement in Zhejiang has fallen to more than 30%. Compared with
the trend of the national
cement price index, the output of cement in the first quarter decreased by 16.3%
. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of cement in January-March 2024 was 33684 million tons, a decrease of 11.8% compared with the same period last year. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-March decreased by 16.3% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the demand in the northern region has declined significantly, especially in North China and Northwest China, where cement production has declined by about 28%.
The author learned from the survey that the serious decline in cement demand in the first quarter of this year was mainly due to the slow start of the market this year, the shortage of government funds and the decrease in the number of projects.
It is worth noting that some major projects have been suspended in some regions because they are listed as high-risk debt provinces, which has a significant impact on cement demand. The author compares the cement output of these 12 high-risk key provinces in the first quarter. Among them, Ningxia has a year-on-year decline of 46.9%, which is the highest among the provinces; Tianjin and Qinghai have a year-on-year decline of about 30%; Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Guizhou have a year-on-year decline of about 20%.
Therefore, under the situation that the contradiction between supply and demand is further intensified, the market competition is fierce, and the cement price has been falling all the way, it is difficult for the industry to improve its profits.
