1. Overview
of the national and regional market (1) National market: Rainwater funds interfere with the unstable foundation of price increase.
In April, affected by the rainy weather and the slow issuance of special bonds, the downstream demand recovered poorly, with only about 40% in the whole country, inferior to the same period; On the supply side, affected by the high inventory, many regions independently extended the shutdown time and reduced the market supply. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of cement market remained weak in April, and many regions were under great pressure to actively raise the price of cement, but the foundation of price increase was not stable. At the beginning of April, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 104.8 points, closing at 108.1 points at the end of the month, up 2.51% annually and down 20.36% year-on-year.
From the perspective of regional demand, although the ring ratio of the six regions has improved, it is still less than the same period. Specifically, the demand in Northeast China is low and the sales volume of cement is poor; there is more rain in East China and the market has recovered slightly; kilns have been opened in Northwest China and the inventory pressure has increased; the construction in Central and South China is slow and the overall demand is weak; the shipment in Southwest China is poor and the competition among enterprises is fierce; North China is not as good as the same period, and the downstream improvement is limited. Figure
1 and Figure 2: April 2024 National Cement Price Index CEMPI, Cement Price Index (CEMPI) K-line
Chart Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Cost. At the end of April, the average spot price of 5500 kcal steam coal was 837 yuan/ton, down 0.36% annually and 22.86% year-on-year. Despite the suspension of production in some mining areas, most of the coal mines in the main production areas maintained stable production and supply. The daily consumption of power plants continued to decline, with obvious seasonal off-season characteristics, limited increment of non-electricity consumption, insufficient support and narrow fluctuation of coal price. At the end of the month, the cost of coal per ton of cement was about 81.94 yuan/ton, which was 0.29 yuan/ton less than that at the end of March, and the cost pressure was reduced. At the end of April, the cost price difference between cement and coal was 198.54 yuan/ton, up 3.75% from the previous month, and the price difference between cement and coal widened. In terms of
benefits, the average price of power coal in April was 827.05 yuan/ton, down 60.19 yuan/ton annually, the average production cost of cement per ton continued to decline, the average price of cement in April was 323.7 yuan/ton, up 0.88 yuan/ton annually, the cost decreased and the price of cement increased. It is expected that the profit situation of the cement industry will improve to a certain extent in April.
Figure 3: Cement price, coal cost and price difference in April 2024 (yuan/ton)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
