1. Overview
of the national and regional market (1) National market: the downstream gradually recovered and the price steadily rose
. In March, the weather conditions improved, the operating rate of downstream construction sites and mixing stations increased, the demand continued to recover, and the industry self-discipline was strengthened, so the implementation of peak staggering was better. Some regions took the initiative to extend the opening time of the kiln, and the cement price went out of the decline and rose steadily as a whole. The national cement price index (CEMPI) was 120.11 points at the beginning of March and closed at 127.77 points at the end of the month, up 6.69% annually and 21.17% year-on-year.
From the perspective of regional demand, the six regions are showing a sustained recovery trend. Specifically, the temperature in North China has risen and the sales volume has risen steadily; the construction in East China has increased and the shipment volume of enterprises has increased; the construction in Central and South China has improved and the market activity has increased; the market demand in Northwest China is still insufficient; the terminal fatigue in Southwest China has caused great pressure on the inventory of manufacturers; and the weak supply and demand pattern in Northeast China has continued in the early stage of recovery.
Figures 1 and 2: March 2025 National Cement Price Index CEMPI, Cement Price Index (CEMPI) K-line
Chart Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Cost. At the end of March, the average spot price of 5500 kcal steam coal was 677 yuan/ton, down 3.84% annually and 19.40% year-on-year. In terms of place of production, despite the impact of the NPC and CPPCC and environmental protection, there was a slight decline in the construction, but the overall stable increase in production was maintained. From the demand side, the demand for thermal power continued to fall, and the performance of non-power industrial coal was sluggish. The pressure of high supply and high inventory of coal appeared, and the price continued to fluctuate downward. At the end of the month, the cost of coal per ton of cement was about 66.28 yuan/ton, which was 2.64 yuan/ton less than that at the end of February, and the cost pressure continued to ease. At the end of March, the cost price difference between cement and coal was 265.26 yuan/ton, up 9.69% from the previous month, and the price difference between cement and coal was widened. In terms of
benefits, the average cost of cement and coal per ton in March was 67.46 yuan/ton, which was 5.35 yuan/ton less than that in February. The average cost of cement and coal per ton continued to decline. The average price of cement in March was 379.96 yuan/ton, which was 16.12 yuan/ton higher than that in February. The price of cement rose, and the cost pressure decreased. It is expected that the cement profit situation in March will be improved to a certain extent compared with February.
Figure 3: Cement price, coal cost and price difference in March 2025 (yuan/ton)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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