1. Overview
of the national and regional market (1) The national market: the terminal demand is weak, and the Jinjiu market is expected to fail
. In September, the weather continued to improve, which is conducive to downstream construction, but the terminal demand recovered slowly, which is difficult to reach the peak season level in previous years, and the overall performance is weak; On the supply side, in order to alleviate the pressure of high inventory, some regions have taken the initiative to increase the intensity of peak staggering, but the level of storage is still high. On the whole, driven by cost, cement prices have been pushed up in large areas in some areas, but the foundation of price increase is not solid under weak demand, and it is difficult to fully implement in practice. At the beginning of September, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 108.06 points, closing at 106.59 points at the end of the month, down 2.23% from the previous month and 29.9% from the previous year.
From the regional point of view, the demand of the six regions is weak and the relationship between supply and demand is still weak. Specifically, the construction conditions in East China have improved, and the market sales have increased; the shipments in Northeast China are general, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong; the demand in North China is weak, and the pressure of price increase is greater; the high inventory in Southwest China is under pressure, and the market situation is not optimistic; there are more rainy weather in Central and South China, and the competition among enterprises is fierce; the downstream demand in Northwest China has limited improvement, and the prices in many places have declined.
Figures 1 and 2: September 2023 National Cement Price Index CEMPI, Cement Price Index (CEMPI) K-line 
Chart Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Cost. At the end of September, the average spot price of 5500 kcal steam coal was 995 yuan/ton, up 17.75% annually and down 34.88% year-on-year. From the demand side, the demand of the power industry in the peak season is coming to an end, but the operating rate of the non-power industry is increasing, and the procurement is more active. From the supply side, the security situation is still grim, the production of coal mines is limited, the supply is shrinking obviously, and the coal price is rising under the mismatch of supply and demand, closing at 995 yuan/ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the cost of coal per ton of cement was about 97.41 yuan/ton, up 14.69 yuan/ton from the end of August, and the cost pressure increased again. At the end of September, the cost price difference between cement and coal was 179.17 yuan/ton, down 10.48% from the previous month, and the price difference between cement and coal narrowed. In terms of
benefits, the average price of thermal coal in September recorded 930.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 101.8 yuan/ton on a month-on-month basis, and the average cost increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the average price of cement in September was 321.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.12 yuan/ton on a month-on-month basis. Under the two-way squeeze of the decline in cement prices and the increase in costs, it is expected that the profits of the cement industry will continue to deteriorate in September.
Figure 3: Cement price, coal cost and price difference in September 2023 (yuan/ton)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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