1. Overview
of national and regional market (1) National market: slow recovery of demand and downward
fluctuation of market In February, affected by low temperature and poor capital repayment, the downstream construction sites and mixing stations resumed work slowly, the operating rate was low, the demand for cement was weak, and the trend of cement price declined first and then rose. The overall shock is downward. At the beginning of February, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 120.86 points, closing at 119.76 points at the end of the month, down 0.91% from the previous month and up 11.62% from the previous year.
From the perspective of regional demand, the six regions are weak in recovery. Specifically, in East China, the availability of funds is poor, and the shipment volume of enterprises is not good; in Northeast China, the temperature is low, and most of the construction has not started; in Central and South China, the workers are in place slowly, and the market activity is not high; in Southwest China, a small number of projects are started, and the market transaction is cold; in North China, the construction is limited, and the terminal demand is low; in Northwest China, the infrastructure is started, and the market is gradually recovering. Figure
1 and Figure 2: February 2025 National Cement Price Index CEMPI, Cement Price Index (CEMPI) K-line
Chart Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Cost. At the end of February, the average spot price of 5500 kcal steam coal was 704 yuan/ton, down 8.09% annually and 24.63% year-on-year. In terms of place of production, on the eve of the major conference, the security inspection of coal mines became stricter, and the supply contracted; from the demand side, the daily consumption of power plants dropped, and the recovery of non-electric industries was slow. Coal supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate downward. At the end of the month, the cost of coal per ton of cement was about 68.92 yuan/ton, which was 6.07 yuan/ton less than that at the end of January, and the cost pressure continued to ease. At the end of February, the cost price difference between cement and coal was 241.83 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the previous month, and the price difference between cement and coal increased slightly. In terms of
benefits, the average cost of coal per ton of cement in February was 72.81 yuan/ton, which was 2.75 yuan/ton less than that in January. The average cost of coal per ton of cement continued to decline. The average price of cement in February was 363.84 yuan/ton, which was 18.13 yuan/ton less than that in January. The decline of cement price was greater than change of cost. In addition, the cost of kiln shutdown was higher. It is expected that the profit per ton of cement in February will continue to decline compared with January.
Figure 3: Cement price, coal cost and price difference in February 2025 (yuan/ton)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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