[Special Topic] Cement Market Operation Analysis and Outlook in the First Three Quarters of 2023

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

In the first three quarters of 2023, affected by the continuous adjustment of real estate, the demand for cement was weak and the industry was in a downturn. In the first quarter, the downstream resumption of work was still good, and the overall demand was better than same period. In the second and third quarters, "the peak season was not strong, and the off-season was weaker", the demand weakened significantly, coupled with the fierce market competition, the cement price continued to decline. Cement production hit a 13-year low in the first three quarters, and despite the downward shift in the focus of coal prices, the profits of the cement industry still shrank sharply. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand of cement industry may be less than that of the same period. Due to the weak demand and the high inventory level of enterprises, there are many obstacles to price rise, and the average price may still decline. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the decline in industry efficiency is still large.

2023-10-24 17:06:00

In the first half of 2023, affected by the macroeconomic downturn and insufficient market demand, the cement industry continued its downturn since 2022. In the first quarter, the downstream resumption of work was better, and the overall demand was better than same period. After entering the second quarter, the peak season was not strong, and the demand weakened significantly. In addition, the market competition was fierce, and the cement price continued to fall. In the first half of the year, cement production hit a new low since 2012, and despite lower coal prices, the profits of the cement industry still shrank sharply. Looking forward to the second half of 2023, we believe that the demand of the cement industry will improve to a certain extent compared with the first half of the year, and the price will rebound seasonally. Due to the limited recovery of demand and the high inventory of enterprises, the strength of the price rebound may be limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face downward pressure, and the decline in industry efficiency is still large.

2023-08-02 09:43:33

The overall demand in the first quarter was better than same period, cement production increased, and the price rebounded to a certain extent. However, due to the low price of cement in the current period, coupled with the limited decline in coal, the cost is still high, and it is expected that the profit of the cement industry will shrink significantly year-on-year. Looking forward to the second quarter, with the continuous development of infrastructure projects and the gradual stabilization of real estate, the demand in the second quarter is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert that with the arrival of the rainy season and the busy farming season, there are variables in the degree of demand improvement. At the same time, under the pressure of new production lines, the rising space of cement prices is suppressed, and it is expected that although the benefits will improve, the absolute profit level may still be low.

2023-04-28 15:54:25