中国水泥网:需求下滑50%!停窑时间或再延长!这个西部省份下半年水泥行情如何翻盘?

2022-07-04 09:12:14

据云南水泥协会一负责人表示,今年上半年云南水泥需求量同比下滑50%,水泥均价同比下跌30%,80%以上水泥企业亏损。

“今年上半年,我们企业水泥销量同比下滑超40%,企业处于亏损边缘。”昭通一水泥企业负责人表示,且目前依然呈现总体下降趋势。而这仅是今年上半年大部分云南水泥企业现状的一个缩影。

据云南水泥协会一负责人表示,今年上半年云南水泥需求量同比下滑50%,水泥均价同比下跌30%,80%以上水泥企业亏损。具体来看:

云南近五年前五月水泥产量变化

中国水泥网大数据统计,2022年1-5月云南水泥产量为3822.83万吨,同比下降24.3%,为近五年水泥产量最低值。而6月份,云南迎来雨季,需求更差,近一个月的水泥发运率都在50%左右,比5月份还低。

“今年水泥需求呈断崖式下降,我们企业需求量同比下滑50%以上。”昆明一水泥企业负责人表示,主要原因还是房地产形势差,重大基建项目资金到位不及时,开工慢。红河一水泥企业给出同样的反馈。该业内人士称,由于基本没有新开工的重点工程项目,今年水泥需求格外少。

水泥库存方面,从中国水泥网长期跟踪的云南水泥库容比来看,今年以来,云南水泥库存一直处于高位,均在70%以上,而截至6月24日,水泥库存已达80%。

行情方面,据云南业内人士表示,一季度,云南水泥需求不好,加上错峰生产执行不力,胀库风险加大,市场竞争激烈,水泥价格大幅下跌。进入二季度,政策要求水泥企业上半年停产50天。供给短时受限,加之成本上涨,水泥价格在4月份开始上调,不过在5月下旬后价格又继续回落。

由于缺少常态化基建项目,云南水泥需求一直疲软,水泥企业库存压力较大,水泥市场竞争相对激烈。“近期在全国部分地区上演的‘价格战’现象在云南也有发生。”云南多位业内人士直言。据了解,目前云南有的水泥企业出厂价低至230元/吨。

值得注意的是,去年年底,云南省工信厅和云南省生态生态环境厅联合发文,要求全省所有水泥熟料生产线在春节、酷暑伏天、雨季、重大活动期间都应全面谋划有序开展错峰生产。要求每条水泥熟料生产线年均错峰生产天数基数100天。但从调研获悉的信息得知,由于市场需求疲弱,不少企业上半年就已停超了100天。

“由于一些水泥企业所在的区域水泥需求非常不好,为防止胀库,上半年有企业错峰停窑时长已达120天。”云南一业内人士表示,且三、四季度还将延长错峰时间,个别水泥企业全年停窑或将达到200天左右。

问及接下来的市场行情,不少行业人士皆判断下半年情况会好转。“房地产作为拉动水泥需求的三驾马车之一,房地产形势若变好将直接带动水泥需求。”云南一业内人士称,目前国家正在盘活云南房企、加大基建投资力度,这些都将利好水泥市场。不过这也要等到9月底至10月初。

红河一水泥企业相关负责人表示,若是原本计划开工的两条高速公路项目能如期动工,将会极大带动水泥需求,缓解市场竞争压力。

日前,云南公布2022年度省级重大项目清单和2022年度“重中之重”项目清单。其中2022年度省级重大项目共1239个,2022年度“重中之重”项目共104个。

从全年来看,不少受访者都判断今年云南整体水泥行情都不太乐观。对于云南水泥市场接下来的行情变化,中国水泥网将会持续跟踪。

2022年上半年的水泥行业面临严峻挑战:煤价高企成本居高不下,需求低迷库存逼近极值,企业效益大幅下滑……时至6月,形势进一步恶化,局部地区的价格战火快速蔓延,硝烟四起的全国水泥市场形势不容乐观。行业翘首以盼:“适度超前”政策下的基建需求何时发力?行情拐点何时出现?竞争秩序是否面临重构?为此,2022年7月11-12日,中国水泥网将在杭州举办2022中国水泥产业峰会暨  颁奖典礼,深度探讨当前及未来水泥行业发展新态势,共襄盛举、共谋发展!

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Correlation

The number of off-peak days in Hebei and Shanxi in the third quarter was significantly longer than that in the same period. Although Inner Mongolia has not yet announced the specific time of kiln shutdown in the third quarter of 2023, according to the regional cement production, the time of kiln shutdown in the same period is less than that in the third quarter of 2024. On the whole, the peak staggering time in North China is prolonged.

2024-11-05 09:33:00

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, the market demand in southwest Sichuan and Chongqing continued to be weak, cement prices in some regions fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, and Yunnan-Guizhou region was mixed. The market demand continued to be weak due to the high temperature off-season in Sichuan and Chongqing, and some enterprises in Sichuan lowered the cement price to increase the shipment volume, while the original plan to raise the price in Chengdu was not implemented. The demand for cement in Chongqing is declining and the price is stable. Rainy weather in Yunnan is frequent, market demand is low, and prices in some areas have fallen after pushing up. Cement prices in Guizhou are generally stable.

2024-08-09 17:19:44

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing has been raised by 50-130 yuan/ton, which is a large increase, and the actual implementation remains to be observed.

2024-06-14 20:06:50

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the implementation of the new national standard has increased the cost of cement production. Leading enterprises in most areas have notified to raise the price of cement by 30-50 yuan/ton. Enterprises in Chongqing plan to raise 100-130 yuan/ton on the 8th.

2024-06-07 16:54:53

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

Generally speaking, the regional trend shows the characteristics of "rising in the north and falling in the south", and the national market shocks downward.

2024-05-13 11:37:00

At the beginning of April, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 104.8 points, closing at 108.1 points at the end of the month, up 2.51% annually and down 20.36% year-on-year.

2024-05-07 16:54:23

In the first quarter of 2024, the recovery of cement industry demand was less than that of the same period, the overall peak staggering time in the northern region was not much different from that in previous years, and the peak staggering time in many southern provinces was extended.

2024-04-23 17:03:58

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, since the middle of the year, many enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing have notified the price of cement to be raised by 15-30 yuan/ton. At present, the implementation is mostly around 10-20 yuan/ton. The market demand and sales volume in Yunnan-Guizhou region is low, and the price of cement in some markets has dropped by 10-20 yuan/ton in the week, and the range in some regions is about 40 yuan/ton.

2024-04-19 16:50:45

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the market started slowly after the year, most of the construction sites and mixing stations in southwest China have not yet started, the demand and sales are low, and the price of cement has not changed much compared with the previous year.

2024-02-23 16:19:35

According to China Cement Market Data Center, this week, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui regions were affected by the decline in clinker prices along the Yangtze River and around Chaohu Lake, and the quotations in all regions showed signs of falling during the week, while the quotations in other regions were temporarily stable during the week.

2024-01-19 16:45:54

The national cement price index (CEMPI) was 113.53 points at the beginning of December and closed at 113.37 points at the end of the month, up 0.21% from the previous month and down 19.96% from the previous year.

2024-01-03 14:34:56

广东珠三角、云南多地及贵州毕节地区水泥价格上调;四川等地公布2024年错峰生产计划;福建五家水泥企业获得中央大气污染防治资金;华润水泥福州公司股权成功拍出;甘肃积石山县发生6.2级地震对当地水泥企业影响不大。

2023-12-19 14:49:50

12月8日,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收113.7点,环比上涨0.15%,同比下跌23.72%。

2023-12-08 18:25:52

11月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为109.69点,月末报收113.13点,环比上涨3.16%,同比下跌25.74%。

2023-12-01 17:06:06

总的来看,仅有少数地区仍在推涨,全国水泥价格行情止涨转跌。

2023-11-27 13:33:51

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,西南地区企业执行错峰停窑,企业库存压力减小。周内四川、贵州部分地区水泥价格继续通知上调30-50元/吨,实际落实情况待跟踪。

2023-11-17 16:49:57

北方错峰停窑导致多省水泥价格上调;吴国强分析称市场需求低迷原因有三:房地产低迷、外来水泥侵占市场、产能过剩严峻,建议叫停产能置换政策。前三季度全国水泥产量14.95亿吨,同比下降4.32%,行业效益大幅萎缩。海螺水泥转让一宗土地使用权,底价仅1.8万元。河南查出5批次水泥产品不合格。

2023-11-13 15:20:48

10月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为106.53点,月末报收109.66点,环比上涨2.88%,同比下跌28.91%。

2023-11-01 16:29:16

十月中下旬,多地需求继续恢复,但整体仍较疲弱,企业出货量低迷,同时煤炭价格高位,水泥成本压力增大,部分地区继续推涨水泥价格。总的来看,由于下游需求恢复有限,水泥价格小幅探涨。

2023-10-23 09:54:47

总的来看,国庆节后,水泥市场存在需求改善预期,加之成本端压力较大,水泥企业普遍存在涨价意愿。各地需求实际恢复情况高低不一,水泥涨价存在差异,但整体价格指数仍呈现小幅回升趋势。

2023-10-19 09:16:41

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,受重庆方向低价水泥冲击,四川地区水泥价格继续下调30-50元/吨。云南局部市场周内尝试复价上调30-60元/吨,执行情况有待跟进。

2023-09-01 17:57:44

据了解,近期多省三季度错峰停窑计划逐步启动,使得企业库存压力有所减缓。

2023-09-01 09:24:12

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收109.83点,环比下跌0.86%,同比下跌23.11%。

2023-08-05 09:30:32

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,台风雨水天气影响,云南地区市场需求销量低迷,部分市场水泥价格下调20-40元/吨不等。四川大运会,企业停窑减产,部分市场周内继续通知涨价20元/吨,执行待观察。

2023-07-28 17:30:57

四川地区限电、减产部分市场复价上调水泥价格30元/吨。

2023-07-14 18:03:15

持续高温之下,多省市用电负荷创下新高。据报道,当前四川、广东、广西、云南、贵州、海南六省区用电负荷已创历史新高。

2023-07-13 09:26:29

2023年二季度,行业需求疲软,厂家库存高企,多个省份错峰时间明显延长。

2023-07-12 16:05:07

近日,贵州省水泥工业协会发布《关于延长三季度错峰生产时间的通知》。

2023-07-12 09:09:38

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收115.35点,环比下跌1.92%,同比下跌19.71%。

2023-07-07 18:24:55

随着市场步入淡季,水泥需求持续走弱,全国多个省份为缓解库存压力、改善市场供需关系,同时为应对夏季用电高峰,相继发布新一轮水泥错峰生产计划。

2023-07-06 09:06:20

6月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为126.23点,月末报收117.61点,环比下跌7.06%,同比下跌19.09%。

2023-07-04 15:22:40

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.6.30)

2023-06-30 17:16:52

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,西南地区市场需求表现清淡,受限电停窑影响,重庆地区主导企业通知上调水泥价格50元/吨,执行待观察。

2023-06-16 16:55:16

后市预测:行业正式进入淡季,市场竞争激烈,企业库存普遍高位承压,预计近期水泥价格仍将延续跌势。

2023-06-12 09:47:15

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.4.28)

2023-04-28 17:22:29

2023年春节较早,同时疫情因素消退,下游复工情况较好,众多重大项目开工建设,一季度整体需求好于同期,水泥产量增加,价格出现一定幅度反弹,但由于本期水泥价格较低,加之煤炭降幅有限,成本仍在高位,预计水泥行业利润同比出现大幅萎缩。展望二季度,随着基建项目的持续发力、地产逐步探底企稳,二季度需求有望继续释放,但也应该警惕随着雨季及农忙时节的到来,需求好转程度存在变数,同时新投产线压力下水泥价格上涨空间受到压制,预计效益虽有好转但绝对利润水平可能仍较低。

2023-04-28 15:54:25

2023年一季度,北方地区错峰时间几无变化,南方地区个别省份略有延长,但整体变化不大。

2023-04-26 14:51:56

晴好天气居多,下游施工条件转好,预计下周水泥价格将偏稳运行。

2023-04-16 11:09:17

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收139.32点,环比下跌0.92%,同比下跌18.75%。

2023-04-15 12:13:56

与此同时,随着需求逐渐好转,成本高企等因素带动,广西、广东、福建等地水泥价格再次迎来上涨。此外,海南市场也迎来了春节后的首次价格上调。

2023-03-11 08:49:21

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,进入3月后华东多地市场需求恢复较好,企业出货量能达7-8成左右,同时沿江地区熟料价格第四轮上调20元/吨,调后离岸挂牌出厂报价350-360元/吨。水泥价格方面,近几日江浙皖沪等多地主要厂家将全面开展第二轮水泥价格上调。

2023-03-03 17:39:36

2月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为136.63点,月末报收137.62点,环比上涨0.64%;由于同期绝对价格较高,本期水泥价格同比下跌18.13%。

2023-03-01 16:29:38

在水泥量价齐跌、成本高企的影响下,2022年全省水泥行业经营效益严重下滑。

2023-02-20 09:12:05

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.2.17)

2023-02-17 17:23:30

2022年四季度(2022年10月16日-12月31日)全省新型于法水泥熟料生产企业累计应停1695天,实际累计停窑2605天,超额完成错峰生产计划。

2023-02-15 09:22:41

各地市场启动较为缓慢,预计下周水泥价格将偏稳运行。

2023-02-12 13:11:31

元宵后市场需求缓慢回升,加之熟料价格上调带动,企业调价意愿强烈。

2023-02-10 17:51:31

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.