需求持续减少,水泥行情止涨转跌

2023-11-27 13:33:51

总的来看,仅有少数地区仍在推涨,全国水泥价格行情止涨转跌。

上周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收110.21点,环比下跌0.66%,同比下跌28.37%。

北方地区受低温天气影响,市场需求进入淡季,水泥价格弱稳运行;南方部分地区虽有工程赶工,但终端需求整体较为疲弱,市场销量下滑。总的来看,仅有少数地区仍在推涨,全国水泥价格行情止涨转跌。

分区域看,本周六大区域涨跌互现。西北地区供应受限,水泥价格走高2.86%;西南地区错峰停窑,水泥价格微涨0.21%;华东地区需求走弱,水泥价格下行1.57%;华北地区出货下降,水泥价格较上周下跌0.74%;中南地区销量一般,水泥价格下行0.24%;东北地区进入冬休,水泥价格维稳。

表1:六大区域水泥价格指数变化

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

具体而言:

华东地区

江苏:天气尚可,需求仍弱于往年同期,市场信心不足,中旬徐州推涨20元/吨后,实际成交价格并未执行到位,扬泰市场亦有小幅回落情况。

浙江:市场需求一般,出库量不佳,杭州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、衢州等地实际成交价格松动下滑15-20元/吨。

安徽:需求一般,部分地区实际成交价格仍处继续下滑状态。

福建:天气晴好居多,但市场需求较为疲软,为稳定市场价格,24日起主导企业有意推动上调水泥价格20元/吨,本轮价格最终能否落实仍有待观察。

上海:地终端市场需求较差,销量不佳,主要厂家实际成交价格有松动下滑20元/吨左右迹象。

山东:多数熟料线已全面进入停窑状态,供需双弱,部分地区实际成交价格出现松动下滑20-30元/吨迹象,但也有企业准备推涨,具体情况待观察。

江西:需求持续走弱,水泥价格暂稳。

中南地区

河南:进入停产状态,市场需求总体平稳,前期推涨50元/吨后,落实程度并不理想,本周实际成交价格已回落20元/吨。

湖南、湖北:近日两湖地区天气有所好转,部分企业仍有继续推涨意向,22日湖南岳阳、湘西北推涨20-30元/吨,湖北咸宁上涨20元/吨,目前市场总体需求销量一般,本轮调涨落实情况有待观察。

广东:市场需求相对平稳,上轮推涨后报价持稳。

广西:水泥外销广东受限,本地市场供应压力增加,但部分工地有赶工期的情况,短期内市场需求销量弱稳运行。

西南地区

重庆:阴雨天气较多,市场需求销量不足,主城市场下调水泥价格10-30元/吨不等。

四川:或受重庆方向降价影响,广达南遂地区部分企业暗中回落20元/吨,整体报价持稳。

云南:受限电错峰等因素影响,水泥生产受限,企业库位下降,18-21日德宏、保山、文山、红河州、普洱等地上调水泥价格30-50元/吨,实际涨幅多在30元/吨左右。

贵州:中旬遵义地区上调水泥价格30元/吨,实际落实20元/吨左右,部分企业仍有推涨计划。

华北地区

京津冀:11月中旬天津、河北部分市场上调水泥价格30元/吨,但近期京津冀部分地区重污染天气预警下,水泥运输和工地施工受限,主要企业出货量下降,水泥成交价格并未有上涨迹象。

内蒙古:需求羸弱,市场价格行情基本淡季平稳。

山西:受周边市场涨价带动,23日起山西临汾、运城地区上调水泥价格30元/吨,落实待观察。

西北地区

陕西:受原材料和环保等因素影响,企业生产成本增加,加之陕西关中地区陆续错峰停窑,22日起区域主要城市上调水泥价格50元/吨,本轮推涨情况有待观察。

宁夏、甘肃、青海、新疆等地受低温天气影响,市场需求渐入淡季,水泥价格平稳运行。

东北地区

东北地区雨雪天气有所减少,但本地市场已基本结束,多数企业已基本处于错峰停窑阶段,市场价格行情淡季维稳运行。

后市预测:气温继续下降,多地需求基本终结,市场供需双弱,预计本周水泥价格将偏弱运行。

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Correlation

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