“缺煤”或缓解 煤价回归合理区间 水泥企业是否可以高枕无忧?!

2022-05-04 10:07:53

从上述信息来看,煤炭行业的平稳发展预期似乎可以让水泥行业“高枕无忧”。但实际上却并非如此。

去年以来,煤炭的价格以及供应问题始终受到各方尤其是水泥企业的关注。

近期,大量的煤炭增产稳价政策陆续推出,加上疫情因素暂时放缓了对于煤炭的需求。煤炭行业研究人士认为,市场平稳运行可期。而这些,对于水泥行业而言无疑是利好消息。

“缺煤”或将缓解 煤价有望回归合理区间

4月20日召开的国务院常务会议指出,能源是经济社会发展的基础支撑,要立足我国国情,应对外部环境新挑战,抓住重点,强化能源保供,未雨绸缪推进条件成熟、发展需要的能源项目开工建设,促进能源结构持续优化。

其中提到,要发挥煤炭的主体能源作用。通力合作优化煤炭企业生产、项目建设等核准审批政策,落实地方稳产保供责任,充分释放先进产能。通过核增产能、扩产、新投产等,今年新增煤炭产能3亿吨。推进煤炭清洁高效利用,加强储备设施建设。运用市场化法治化办法,引导煤价运行在合理区间。

3亿吨的新增煤炭产能意味着什么?资料显示,2020年我国一次能源生产总量共40.8亿吨标准煤。这个数字在2021年升至43.3亿吨,相当于增加了2.5亿吨的产能。但新增产能的数量仍比不上消费的攀升,2021年能源消费总量为52.4亿吨,超过生产量9.1亿吨。

由此可见,待3亿吨的新增煤炭产能逐步释放,将一定程度上缓解国内能源消费的“缺口”。

从一季度相关数据就可以看出,国内煤炭产量正在稳步增加。据国家统计局网站消息,3月份,规模以上工业主要能源产品生产均有不同程度增长。3月份以来煤炭增产增供政策持续加力,主要产煤省区全力挖潜扩能增供。一季度,生产原煤10.8亿吨,同比增长10.3%。进口煤炭5181万吨,同比下降24.2%。

此外,近期各主要产煤地的大动作也频频。

4月21日下午,山西省政府召开全省煤炭增产保供外运工作电视电话会议,会议提出,在确保安全生产和疫情防控的前提下,全力做好煤炭增产保供外运工作。要拿出真招实招硬招,着力破除煤炭生产和涉煤运输中的难点堵点痛点,维护产业链供应链稳定。

山东省能源局印发《2022年全省能源工作指导意见》明确,2022年山东省煤炭产量稳定在9500万吨左右。稳定省内生产,以赋存条件好、安全有保障、智能化水平高“三类煤矿”为重点,积极释放先进产能,核增滨湖煤矿产能40万吨/年;推进万福煤矿项目建设,产能规模180万吨/年。稳定省外供应,加大晋陕蒙等省外煤炭资源开发,引导重点用煤企业与省外煤矿签订中长期合同。

《四川省“十四五”能源发展规划》提出,推进煤炭绿色开采。坚持“限小扶大、增优减劣”,保持合理有效产能规模。到2025年,优质产能煤矿产量比重达到50%以上。

“华能伊敏煤电公司伊敏露天矿生产能力核定报告通过国家矿山安全监察局审查,伊敏露天矿生产能力核增至3500万吨/年”、“新疆首座获得国家发改委核准的千万吨现代化井工矿井的新疆能化公司伊犁一矿建设项目于4月20日顺利通过竣工验收,设计能力1000万吨/年,服务年限142年”、“甘肃庆阳迈入建设亿吨级大型煤炭生产基地新阶段”……

种种迹象都表明,我国的煤炭供应保障更加安全有力,随着国家及地方政府积极推进增产保供,煤炭优质产能的持续释放,2021年下半年曾出现的“缺煤”、“煤荒”现象将一定程度得到缓解。

不过,需要注意的是,由于受美国加快收紧政策、俄乌战争的影响,国际大宗商品价格不断推高。作为国内主要大宗商品的动力煤、焦煤等价格虽然不再出现去年下半年的“煤超疯”现象,但依旧处于高位运行。

从国内煤炭与进口煤炭所占比例来看,目前,中国煤炭对外依存度较低,具有较强的独立自主性。2021年中国煤炭进口量达3.23亿吨,为近年最高。但总体而言,中国国内煤炭产量占中国煤炭供应的绝大部分市场,进口煤炭仅占约7%左右。

有业内人士表示,煤炭供求面正在进一步改善。且相关部门将研究明确煤炭领域哄抬价格违法行为认定标准,这些都有望疏导煤炭市场价格回归合理区间。

就在2月24日,国家发展改革委印发《关于进一步完善煤炭市场价格形成机制的通知》(发改价格〔2022〕303号),明确了煤炭(动力煤,下同)中长期交易价格的合理区间,其中秦皇岛港下水煤(5500千卡)价格合理区间为每吨570~770元,山西、陕西、蒙西煤炭(5500千卡)出矿环节价格合理区间分别为每吨370~570元、320~520元、260~460元,蒙东煤炭(3500千卡)出矿环节价格合理区间为每吨200~300元。《通知》自5月1日起实施。  

下一步,国家发展改革委将密切监测煤炭市场和价格运行情况,加强煤炭市场价格调控监管,综合运用市场化、法治化手段,引导煤炭价格运行在合理区间,保障能源安全稳定供应。

水泥企业积极推进能源结构调整

从上述信息来看,煤炭行业的平稳发展预期似乎可以让水泥行业“高枕无忧”。但实际上却并非如此。

煤炭作为一种不可再生的资源,存量必定是日益减少。尽管当下在相关部门的多方努力下,紧张的供需关系得到一定缓解,但煤炭资源的紧缺必然是未来需长期面对的问题。“煤荒”可能是暂时的,但煤炭日益减少却是一定的。

正因如此,水泥企业才更不能放松对能源结构调整的力度,应主动推进替代燃料等的推广应用,这不仅能够提升企业自身应对外部风险的能力,更有利于助推水泥行业率先实现碳达峰碳中和。

通常而言,煤炭和电力是水泥行业能源的主要来源,煤炭和电力成本占到水泥生产总成本的50%左右。一旦煤炭价格、电价受政策变动或市场供需关系等因素出现大幅上涨,将会带动水泥生产成本上升,倘若由此造成的成本上涨无法完全传导至产品价格,则会对水泥企业盈利产生一定影响。而去年以来,煤炭价格飙升、高能耗行业电价上浮不受限给水泥行业在生产成本端带来极大压力。

在“双碳”目标、电价市场化、煤价上涨等综合大背景下,诸多水泥企业已然开始行动,通过加大力度发掘替代燃料、可再生能源减少化石燃料燃烧和电力消耗,逐步提升“绿色能源”使用比例。

替代燃料方面,以海螺水泥为例,其在最新年报中显示,海螺集团正在通过生物质燃料和RDF燃料两个方面对清洁能源进行探索,两者在降低煤耗方面同样具有重要意义。其中,生物质燃料相较煤炭具有低污染、低成本等特点,属于环保经济型燃料,具有良好的生态效益、经济效益和社会效益。为探索建设现代化能源体系,同时解决农业秸秆处理难、易引发环境污染等问题,中国首套生物质替代燃料系统—枞阳海螺生物质替代项目于2020年10月建成投产。

该项目是中国水泥行业首套生物质替代燃料系统,每年可利用秸秆等生物质15万吨,处理包括油菜秆、稻草等不同种类秸秆,实现生物质燃料替代原煤率超过40%。据了解,枞阳海螺生物质替代项目2021年替代燃料累计使用22013吨,节约标准煤约9000吨,相当于减少二氧化碳排放近2.4万吨。

而据华新水泥在2021年度业绩报告中表示,华新水泥在不断提高生活垃圾、替代衍生燃料(RDF)、生物质等的利用率。目前其水泥窑热替代率(TSR)达到7.37%,较2020年上升2.43个百分点。2021年华新水泥处置生活垃圾及衍生燃料212万吨,节约标煤44万吨,减排二氧化碳121万吨。

另外,华新水泥表示,要提升替代燃料协同利用比例,2022年公司整体热值替代率要达到 10%以上。海螺水泥称,计划到2025年RDF替代化石燃料的比例约10%。天山股份也表示2022年公司的重点工作之一就是要强化科技创新,引领绿色低碳发展,重点抓好低碳熟料、高效烧成、替代燃料、高效粉磨等重点低碳技术攻关。

除了发展替代燃料,大力推进光伏发电也是水泥企业能源结构调整的重要举措之一。

2021年,海螺集团完成了海螺新能源的战略收购,并拓展了储能系统的技术开发及光伏发电等新能源板块业务,在水泥生产的过程中加大清洁能源使用比例。年报数据显示,海螺已建成19个合计200 MW的光伏发电项目,年累计发电量1.64亿千瓦时,发电量较2020年增加326%,相当于节约标准煤2.02万吨,减少二氧化碳排放14.38万吨。

据悉,海螺集团还在济宁海螺水泥打造了“零外购电”的水泥工厂。目前,济宁海螺水泥形成了集余热发电、风力发电、光伏发电和垃圾发电等多种绿色经营方式于一体的能源体系。该企业每年可完成自发电约1.3亿度,节约标煤约4万吨,减排二氧化碳约10万吨。

2021年塔牌集团投资约13.39亿元建设分布式光伏发电储能一体化项目,向绿色低碳工业经济转型升级。塔牌集团对外称,经测算,公司厂区内建设“自发自用、余电上网”光伏发电项目用电成本比当前外购电价节约20%以上。

当然,在能源结构调整的过程中,水泥行业面对的人才、技术、管理经验等方面的挑战必然不少,后续也需要不断探索努力。

但千里之行,始于足下,水泥企业只有朝着这个目标不断努力,才能逐步减少对化石能源及外部电力依赖,推动行业能源转型,真正实现水泥行业的高质量发展。

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Through unremitting efforts, Luoyang Zhonglian has made new breakthroughs in exploring the use of high calorific value solid hazardous waste and biomass alternative fuels.

2024-04-18 09:35:12

Tao Congxi mainly analyzed the current situation of carbon emission in cement industry, the technical path of carbon emission reduction at home and abroad, the "3C" carbon neutralization technology in cement industry, and the "3C" carbon neutralization practice cases in cement industry.

2024-04-03 13:58:22

On March 28, the 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony hosted by China Cement Network was held grandly.

2024-03-28 18:30:58

The company continues to streamline the organization and optimize personnel, establish and improve the flexible salary system, and constantly reduce costs.

2024-03-26 09:26:35

At present, the demand for cement is declining and the market competition is fierce. In the future, the competition of cement enterprises will eventually be the cost competition. We can reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of standard conch cement, so as to occupy a favorable position in the market competition and avoid being eliminated by the market.

2024-03-22 14:06:21

At present, there is no accurate and specific definition for low-carbon cement. Generally speaking, the amount of carbon dioxide produced in the process of cement production has been greatly reduced compared with traditional Portland cement.

2024-03-19 11:18:09

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

In terms of the overall supply-demand relationship, the thermal coal market may continue to be in a state of excess, and the market price focus is expected to further move down, such as the price of 5500 kcal water coal around the Bohai Sea may fluctuate in the range of 800-950 yuan/ton.

2024-03-15 15:35:01

Recently, as one of the 46 key enterprises included in carbon trading in Hubei Province, Gezhouba Yicheng Cement Co., Ltd. has successfully transformed from carbon quota shortage to carbon emission surplus enterprises through deep energy-saving and carbon reduction technology transformation.

2024-03-11 13:58:35

Ignatius, Director-General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industries, Ministry of Industry Warsito explained that there is overcapacity in the cement industry in almost all regions except Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Papua Maluku. "The largest percentage of overcapacity is in Java, at more than 55.4%," Warsito added.

2024-03-02 18:16:25

The domestic cement industry is expected to rebound in 2024 due to the government's tireless efforts to accelerate the implementation of public investment and key transport infrastructure projects, as well as the approval of many industrial and urban infrastructure projects.

2024-03-02 18:09:38

What is the actual energy consumption of the cement industry in 2023? What is the level of energy efficiency in the cement industry?

2024-02-20 17:39:29

Corporate profits have fallen sharply compared with previous years, and the willingness to raise prices is strong.

2024-02-20 16:48:37

On November 21, the Western Construction (002302) issued a prospectus for issuing stocks to specific targets in 2021. The company plans to introduce Conch Cement as a strategic investor through this issue, and Conch Cement will subscribe for 183 million shares, accounting for 12.48% of the total equity after the issue, becoming the second largest shareholder. The purpose of this issue is to optimize the capital structure, supplement liquidity and repay bank loans, which is expected to bring the company an annual increase of 8.85 billion yuan in operating income and a total profit of 708 million yuan, up 38.71% and 78.23% respectively from 2023.