[原创]埃塞俄比亚:水泥行业走在十字路口

2016-03-31 11:18:36

在3月17~19日于非盟会议厅召开的第一届东非水泥、混凝土和能源峰会上,行业企业认为埃塞俄比亚水泥行业正处于十字路口,行业正面临各种严峻的挑战,国内水泥厂的生产效率和增长受到影响。

  埃塞俄比亚水泥行业正面临各种严峻的挑战,国内水泥厂的生产效率和增长受到影响。

  在3月17~19日于非盟会议厅召开的第一届东非水泥、混凝土和能源峰会上,行业企业认为国内水泥行业正处于十字路口。

  i-Capital (非洲)研究所常务董事Gemechu Waktola表示,尽管国内水泥产能总体上保持增长,然而水泥消费量并没有相应的增加。Gemechu强调,2004~2012年的建筑热潮导致水泥需求大量增加,国内水泥出现短缺,随后外资企业涌入、国内企业也加大扩张力度。

  目前,埃塞俄比亚的水泥厂超过20多家,安装水泥总产能接近1500万吨,包括新进入的巨头Dangote Cement的250万吨产能。Muger Cement、Messebo、Dangote、Derba和National Cement是行业的主导企业。Habesha Cement的140万吨水泥也将于2017年投放市场。

  虽然年产能达到1500万吨,然而水泥的年消费量仅仅只有600万吨,人均水泥消费量仅62公斤,这与撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲165公斤的人均消费量相比,显得很低。埃塞俄比亚水泥厂的产能利用率也仅有50%。

  Gemechu认为,国内水泥市场已经饱和,政府在增长和转型计划(GTP)初期作了错误的估计,他们预计在GTP第一阶段2015年水泥消费量将达到2700万吨,人均消费量达到300公斤。然而事实上到了2015年底水泥消费量仅547万吨。

  国内水泥生产商正努力将水泥出口到南苏丹、吉布提和肯尼亚,然而,市场有限,无法解决市场饱和问题。将水泥通过卡车运往300公里以外是没有竞争优势的。

  Derba MIDROC Cement的CEO 、埃塞俄比亚水泥协会会长Haile Assegide表示,水泥需求下滑了15~16%。他表示,目前国内需求在800~900万吨,此外熟练的劳动力短缺是行业存在的另外一个问题。

  工业部和阿达马科技大学合作起草了《全国水泥发展战略2015~2025》,该文件还没有批准和实施。Gemechu表示,解决行业面临的问题,需要由政府和所有利益相关者共同努力。然而目前急需要采取行动,价格战就是可能的一个方案。Gemechu强调,大企业会并购小企业,小厂将逐步淘汰。

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During the exchange, both sides expressed the hope that they could further explore cooperation opportunities in the future and work together for the high-quality development of the cement industry.