[原创]谈疫情:基建将极大拉动水泥需求 但看淡湖北水泥市场

2020-02-21 17:48:04

2020年,基建领域是拉动水泥需求的重头戏,后期需求集中爆发对市场将有非常明显的带动作用。

随着疫情逐步得到控制,政策重新强调经济增长目标。自2月10日起,国家各部委和地方政府纷纷出台政策,推动重大工程和交通基础设施项目加快复工。

通常来说,由于疫情影响,经济下行压力骤然增大,为了促进经济恢复正常运转,政策层面可能加大基建的投资力度。而基建项目的顺利复工,对于水泥、砂石等建筑原材料行业而言则是利好消息。

“一季度本就是水泥需求淡季,加之新冠肺炎疫情影响,现在水泥行业需求尚未回春。但伴随着各地基建项目的推进力度不断加大,会极大带动水泥行业的需求释放。”一业内资深人士对中国水泥网记者表示,“2020年,基建领域是拉动水泥需求的重头戏,后期需求集中爆发对市场将有非常明显的带动作用。”该人士补充道。

但同时,作为关系到水泥需求三大马车之一的房地产行业却并不乐观。2月19日晚间,央行官网发布了2019年四季度中国货币政策执行报告,透露了下一阶段的主要政策思路。报告重申,要坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,按照“因城施策”的基本原则,加快建立房地产金融长效管理机制,不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段。

疫情冲击下,不可能鼓励炒房,但稳定房地产市场也是重要举措。“房地产行业或将延续近些年的发展趋势,对水泥行业的需求带动仍将呈现稳中趋缓的状态。”该人士指出。

另外,对于此次新冠肺炎的重灾区,湖北的水泥行业也受到了不小的冲击。一方面,复工时间尚不明确,2月20日,湖北省新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情防控指挥部通告称,湖北省各类企业先按不早于3月10日24时前复工,学校推迟开学。即使能在3月如期复工,湖北的水泥行业依然要面临工人缺乏、地区性原料短缺等问题,而如何保障工人生产安全则是正常开工后面临的首要难题。

另一方面,此次肺炎疫情是否会影响投资者对湖北的投资考量将会影响到未来湖北水泥行业的发展。“疫情对不少投资者造成了阴影,从这方面来说,个人看淡后期的湖北水泥市场。”该业内人士表示。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

From a supply perspective. In 2024, the cement industry still showed a trend of "serious overcapacity". Although the expectation of environmental protection and low carbon still maintains the trend of "continuous overweight", "normalization of staggered peak production" and "carbon peak" have some constraints on the compression of cement supply in most regions, due to the overall weakening of market demand, the original production intensity of compressed cement has been difficult to reverse the current contradiction between supply and demand in a large scale, and the market. The effect of regulation and control on the supply side of superimposed peak staggering production is weakened, and the market competition is further intensified.

2024-08-28 11:34:46

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan has risen again by 30 yuan/ton. The market demand in Sichuan and Chongqing is weak, and local cement prices have fallen.

2024-06-28 17:06:31

De-inventory has become an important task for the real estate industry at this stage, and the scale of land supply is expected to shrink further, putting pressure on domestic cement demand.

2024-06-28 09:38:56

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

2024-05-23 13:38:17

Overall, the "battle intensity" between local enterprises in the southern Henan market will slow down significantly in 2024, but the overall situation is still grim due to the decline in demand and the impact of cement from other provinces.

2024-05-09 21:25:45

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17

Enterprises with strong competitiveness and rapid response to the external environment can win the future.

2024-03-19 15:10:10

In the Yangtze River Delta region in 2023, Shanghai performed best in terms of demand, while the annual average price of cement was Zhejiang > Shanghai > Anhui > Jiangsu, but both fell to the lowest level in five years.

2024-01-16 09:14:58

2023年,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥行业发展景气度继续下降。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期;二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低;四季度需求弱势恢复,水泥价格小幅上涨。总体来看,2023年水泥产量创下近13年新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥价格降幅较深,行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2024年,我们认为地产对水泥需求拖累减弱,水泥产量或将小幅下降,产能过剩压力下水泥价格中枢下移,行业效益难言乐观。

2023-12-22 17:20:42

精选|2024年混凝土需求预计下滑;超3.5亿元!国家给水泥厂“发钱”;国务院印发《空气质量持续改善行动计划》

2023-12-21 13:29:50

10月份,国内施工条件尚可,加之基建资金到位率提升,局部施工有所加快,但总体需求仍不及往年同期水平,混凝土价格涨跌幅度较小。截至10月底,全国混凝土价格指数(CONCPI)报收125.04点,较9月底下跌0.49%,与去年同期相比,价格跌幅为12.02%……

2023-11-01 16:35:31

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,本周中南地区除广西市场外,大部分区域水泥价格普遍上扬。其中湖北地区通知涨幅在50元/吨,实际落实待观察。

2023-10-27 17:43:27

总的来看,市场涨价氛围浓厚。至于此次价格上涨原因,上述市场人士均表示,进入传统旺季,尽管下游需求仍显疲软,但受原燃材料价格上涨影响,叠加错峰生产,全国水泥价格保持上行。

2023-10-10 09:17:16

各地陆续有项目开工,且投资额累积已达数万亿,同时,当前水泥产量跌幅仅3%左右,但水泥行情持续低迷,行业利润更是创下近年新低,您认为原因何在?

2023-10-08 09:23:25

相关数据显示,钢铁和水泥生产的碳排放占全国建材生产碳排放量的95%以上,其中钢铁占52%,水泥占44%。

2023-09-30 08:35:17

2023年,国内商混需求总量延续下行趋势,但以华新水泥和海螺水泥为代表的部分企业实现商混业务逆市扩张,冲击长江中下游沿线混凝土市场,加速企业优胜劣汰……

2023-09-23 08:16:13

据不完全统计,目前在A股主板、港股以及台股中发展商混业务的上市公司约有31家,其中以商混作为主营业务的公司有9家。2023年半年报披露出具体商混收入的上市公司共有27家,而金隅集团、青松建化、中国能建以及亚泰集团未披露商混业务收入数据。关于上市公司2023年上半年商混的销量、售价、毛利率以及回款情况表现如何,具体分析详见下文:

2023-09-13 15:47:33

诸葛文达认为,水泥作为周期性行业,发展自有其规律。整体来说,当前水泥行业正由“春秋时期”转入“战国时期”。过去几年,行业通过“合纵连横”构建了相对稳定的竞合关系,取得了良好的效益,如今随着市场需求的下滑,行业将在竞争中,开启一轮“兼并战争”。

2023-09-06 09:18:44

水泥价格创五年新低;中国建材、冀东水泥、福建水泥中报点评;《山东省建材行业碳达峰工作方案》印发

2023-08-30 13:29:38

2023年上半年度国内砂石价格整体弱势运行。截至6月底,全国碎石价格指数报收85.49点,同比下跌8.37%。全国机制砂价格指数报收90.98点,同比下跌6.72%。一季度砂石价格呈下降趋势,随后砂石价格在短时间内回升,但二季度砂石价格跌幅加大。

2023-08-08 09:07:52

2023年上半年,受宏观经济下行和市场需求不足影响,水泥行业延续2022年以来低迷态势。一季度下游复工情况较好,整体需求好于同期,进入二季度后旺季不旺,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格跌跌不止。上半年,水泥产量创下2012年来新低,尽管煤价有所走低,但水泥行业利润仍出现大幅萎缩。展望2023年下半年,我们认为水泥行业需求相较于上半年会有一定程度好转,价格将会出现季节性反弹,由于需求恢复有限,企业库位较高,价格反弹力度或将有限。全年来看,水泥需求将面临下行压力,行业效益降幅仍大。

2023-08-02 09:43:33

7月中下旬,多地气温仍较高,部分地区受强降雨影响较为明显,下游需求疲软,企业出货量偏低。整体来看,全国水泥价格行情延续跌势。

2023-07-27 09:30:49

在房地产持续下行探底的大环境下,即便基建项目有所增长,也难以缓解当下水泥行业困境。

2023-07-25 16:20:14

国内普遍处于高温多雨的淡季状态,下游施工强度偏低,混凝土出货量多有下滑,混凝土价格稳中有降。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收132.11点,环比下跌0.20%,同比跌幅为8.75%……

2023-07-14 17:17:52

如果地产行业投资难以提振,水泥供需关系短期依旧无法打破。

2023-07-14 09:28:52

6月进入传统淡季,全国砂石需求趋弱运行,整体价格继续小幅下行

2023-07-10 15:05:44

南方受到雨热天气影响,市场处于淡季状态,混凝土需求多有下滑,混凝土价格以跌为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收132.71点,环比下跌0.92%,同比跌幅为9.52%……

2023-06-30 17:13:43

中国水泥网调研市场了解到,水泥价格“跌跌不休”的主因还是需求太差,房地产“拖后腿”严重,产需矛盾加剧。

2023-06-10 12:30:26

近期国内部分项目进入收尾阶段,新增项目跟进乏力,混凝土需求呈现下滑趋势,加之成本持续回落,企业报价仍然以跌为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收136.22点,环比下跌0.73%,同比跌幅为8.22%……

2023-06-02 16:40:14

5月份,南方阴雨天气持续,混凝土市场需求仍有所下滑,加之成本回落明显,国内商混价格出现普跌。截至5月底,全国混凝土价格指数(CONCPI)报收136.22点,较4月底下跌1.81%,与去年同期相比,价格跌幅为8.22%……

2023-06-01 16:40:45

5月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为135.74点,月末报收126.54点,环比下跌6.77%,同比下跌20.46%

2023-06-01 15:50:55

本周北方局部需求略有增加,但整体仍处于偏低水平,而南方市场雨水偏多,混凝土需求稳中有降,市场价格以跌为主,本周全国混凝土价格指数报收137.22点,环比下跌0.36%,同比跌幅为7.86%……

2023-05-26 17:12:09

近期下游局部施工活动强度略有走弱,国内混凝土需求弱势运行,混凝土价格变动以跌为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收137.71点,环比下跌0.24%,同比跌幅为7.64%……

2023-05-19 16:49:59

本周北方市场需求略有好转,但由于南方多地受雨水天气影响,整体需求弱势运行,混凝土报价多有下调。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收138.73点,环比下跌0.50%,同比跌幅为7.49%……

2023-05-12 15:12:09

尖峰集团指出,2023年,在积极的基建投资、房地产政策与金融政策支持下,水泥需求有望逐步企稳。

2023-05-10 14:33:17

4月份,国内降水量增多,下游施工项目进度放缓,混凝土市场需求趋弱运行,企业价格调整以跌为主。截至4月底,全国混凝土价格指数(CONCPI)报收138.73点,较3月底下跌1.10%,与去年同期相比,价格跌幅为7.03%……

2023-05-05 17:39:12

2023年春节较早,同时疫情因素消退,下游复工情况较好,众多重大项目开工建设,一季度整体需求好于同期,水泥产量增加,价格出现一定幅度反弹,但由于本期水泥价格较低,加之煤炭降幅有限,成本仍在高位,预计水泥行业利润同比出现大幅萎缩。展望二季度,随着基建项目的持续发力、地产逐步探底企稳,二季度需求有望继续释放,但也应该警惕随着雨季及农忙时节的到来,需求好转程度存在变数,同时新投产线压力下水泥价格上涨空间受到压制,预计效益虽有好转但绝对利润水平可能仍较低。

2023-04-28 15:54:25

2023年一季度,全国砂石价格先抑后扬。截至3月底,全国碎石价格指数(CSPI)报收87.85点,同比下跌7.83%,较1月初上涨0.08%;全国机制砂价格指数(MSPI)报收94.26点,同比下跌5.78%,较1月初上涨0.24%。

2023-04-27 15:50:13

2023年4月,水泥大数据研究院进行了砂石骨料行业调研。

2023-04-27 09:20:32

过去一年,水泥行业面临的困难和挑战前所未有,作出的探索和努力前所未有。面对经济下行压力加大、疫情多发频发、市场需求走弱等多重超预期因素冲击,湖北水泥行业同舟共济、共渡难关,取得了来之不易的成绩。

2023-04-24 14:14:42

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.