The Yangtze River Delta, less than 4% of its land area, creates nearly 1/4 of China's total economic output and more than 1/3 of its total import and export volume. As one of the regions with the most active economic development, the highest degree of openness and the strongest innovation ability in China, the Yangtze River Delta is also the vane of the national cement market, which plays an important role in stabilizing the national cement market.
According to the survey data, the total cement consumption of cities in the Yangtze River Delta in 2023 is expected to be about 2.
By the end of 2023, the total annual clinker production capacity in the Yangtze River Delta market is about 200 million tons, mainly concentrated in Anhui region, while Shanghai, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Taizhou, Nantong, Yangzhou, Taizhou and Zhoushan have no clinker production capacity. It mainly depends on the input of clinker from peripheral Anhui, surrounding cities and along the Yangtze River.
200 million tons of clinker can produce nearly 300 million tons of cement annually, without taking into account the overcapacity, peripheral cement and clinker input, the Yangtze River Delta has been in a state of oversupply. Because of the superior geographical location of the Yangtze River Delta, it is unavoidable for cement from Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Shandong and other regions to enter the Yangtze River Delta market when there is room for price.
Breakdown:
Shanghai's demand performance is bright and the price fluctuates downward
. In 2023, under the downward pressure of the national cement demand, Shanghai's performance is relatively bright. In 2023, Shanghai consumed 28.63 million tons, an increase of 27% over the same period last year, reaching the highest level in the past five years.
Other data show that the total amount of sand used for construction in Shanghai in the first three quarters of 2023 was 42.977 million tons, an increase of 71.1% compared with the first three quarters of 2022;
In March, large-scale infrastructure projects such as Nanhui Branch Line, Shanghai-Tong Railway and Shanghai-Suzhou-Huzhou Railway provided favorable support for Shanghai's cement demand. From April to the end of the year, although some projects under construction were completed one after another, the new construction of the project was insufficient. However, the monthly consumption of cement in Shanghai is basically maintained at about 2.5 million tons, and the total annual consumption has reached the highest level in previous years.
Despite the bright demand performance, the national < a href = "https://price.ccement.
" cement data from China Cement Network shows that the highest average monthly price of cement in Shanghai in 2023 is 435.18 yuan/ton in March (including tax arrival price, the same below). The lowest was 312.73 yuan/ton in August. Annual average cement price Trend of
annual average cement price in Shanghai
in 2019-2023 Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Sales volume in Zhejiang was flat year-on-year.
According to the big data of China Cement Network, by the end of 2023, the production capacity of new dry process cement clinker in Zhejiang Province was 5152. It is estimated that the cement output in Zhejiang Province in 2023 will be 128 million tons, a decrease of 0.
Zhejiang's cement production capacity is not excessive, and it is a typical "cement input type" province. According to the actual survey, most cement enterprises in Zhejiang in 2023 are in a state of "flat sales year-on-year", but affected by the sharp decline in cement prices, profits are also declining seriously.
According to the big data of China Cement Network, the average monthly price of Zhejiang cement in 2023 is 467.84 yuan/ton in March and 323.76 yuan/ton in August. Annual Average Price 386.2019-2023
Trend of
Annual Average Price of Cement in Zhejiang Province Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.
) Declining Demand for Cement
According to the big data of China Cement Network, Jiangsu's cement output is expected to be 140 million tons in 2023, second only to Guangdong Province, an increase of 0.
An insider of Jiangsu Cement Association said that Jiangsu's clinker production capacity is about 54 million tons. Cement output 1. In addition to meeting the needs of the province, some of Jiangsu's cement is sold to Shanghai, accounting for about 48% of Shanghai's cement demand. Therefore, in a sense, Jiangsu cement belongs to the export type.
According to the actual survey, due to the depression of the real estate industry, the demand for cement has declined significantly. In addition, shipping in Jiangsu is developed, and the impact of foreign cement is also very serious, which further increases the pressure on the market.
According to the big data of China Cement Network, the highest monthly average price of cement in Jiangsu in 2023 was 395.53 yuan/ton in March, and the lowest was 286.24 yuan/ton in August, returning to "2". Annual Average Price 331.2019-2023
Trend of
Annual Average Price of Cement in Jiangsu Province Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Serious overcapacity
By the end of 2023, the annual cement clinker production capacity of Anhui Province was 1. In addition, Anhui Province is the "base camp" of Conch Cement. < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/pricenewslist-1-340000-0.
According to the actual survey, although some areas in Anhui benefit from the drive of key projects and the demand for cement is stable and improving, on the whole, The demand for cement in Anhui Province is still showing a downward trend. A
local enterprise said bluntly: "The demand is really too bad, and the era of 400 yuan is gone forever.". Now, even if half of the cement production capacity along the Yangtze River is stopped, the rest will be more than enough to supply the demand of Anhui. Due to the serious overcapacity, "expanding warehouse" has become a problem faced by Anhui cement enterprises. In terms of
price, the price of cement along the Yangtze River in Anhui has fallen again and again in the year. According to the big data of China Cement Network, the highest monthly average price of cement in Anhui in 2023 is 402.40 yuan/ton in April, and the lowest is 307.86 yuan/ton in August. Annual Average Price 350.2019-2023
Trend of
Annual Average Price of Cement in Anhui Province Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.2023
year, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Yangtze River Delta has emerged. In the fourth quarter, the kiln was shut down in coordination with the industry, hoping to achieve the effect of price increase by controlling excess capacity, but the actual effect was not ideal, and the implementation of price increase was not complete.
China Cement Network Big Data Research Institute said that in 2024, the overall pressure on the national cement market is expected to remain high, but the downward trend will slow down.
