Pakistan's cement market released a strong signal of domestic demand recovery in April 2026, with the national cement shipment volume increasing by 11.14% year-on-year to 3.89 million tons, of which the explosive growth of the local market constituted the core support. According to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association, domestic shipments surged 20.17% to 3.217 million tons in April, up more than 540,000 tons from 2.677 million tons in the same period in 2025. This growth rate not only far exceeds the total growth rate, but also indicates that domestic construction activities are experiencing a strong cyclical recovery. The reason is that the reduction of financing cost and construction cost jointly promote the recovery of construction activities and provide direct financial and project support for cement consumption.
However, in sharp contrast to the hot domestic demand, the export side continued to shrink. Export shipments in April fell 18.22% year-on-year to 673,000 tons, down about 150,000 tons from 823,000 tons in the previous year. This scissors pattern of "domestic surge and export decline" is particularly clear in the regional distribution between the north and the south. The local shipment volume of northern factories increased by 18.25% to 2.662 million tons in April, and there was no export business at all, showing the characteristics of pure domestic demand dependence; The local shipment volume of southern factories increased by 30.35% to 555000 tons, but the export volume decreased by 5.01% to 673000 tons, indicating that although the south still takes into account the overseas market, the export momentum is also weakening significantly.
From the cumulative data of the first ten months of this fiscal year, this trend of differentiation has been fully verified. During the period, China's total cement shipment volume reached 42.396 million tons, an increase of 9.83% over the previous year, of which 34.785 million tons were shipped domestically, an increase of 11.33%, and 7.611 million tons were exported, an increase of only 3.47%. The northern plants shipped a total of 29.01 million tons domestically, up 12.56%, but exports plummeted by 35.39%; the southern plants shipped 5.771 million tons domestically, up 5.56%, and exports increased by 11.31% to 6.813 million tons. The cumulative data reveal a key fact: the growth engine of Pakistan's cement industry has shifted almost entirely to the domestic market, with exports not only contributing only marginally, but also experiencing a significant ebb in the northern market.
As for the causes of export contraction, industry analysis points to double external shocks. On the one hand, the decline in seaborne exports reflects the erosion of Pakistan's cement price competitiveness due to increased competition in the international market or fluctuations in shipping costs; on the other hand, the closure of the Afghan border has directly cut off Pakistan's important access to this traditional overland export market, which has had a particularly significant impact on the export business of southern factories. A spokesman for APCMA expressed optimism about the upcoming federal budget and hoped that the government would introduce more policies in favor of the cement industry to further consolidate the recovery momentum of the domestic market.
On the whole, Pakistan's cement industry is in a typical "strong inside and weak outside" cycle in fiscal year 2026. Domestic demand achieved double-digit growth driven by lower costs and a rebound in construction activity, laying a solid foundation for total volume expansion throughout the year; however, structural obstacles to exports, including geopolitical uncertainties, changes in border policies and seaborne competition, are difficult to fundamentally reverse in the short term. For industry participants, this means that capacity allocation and marketing strategies need to focus more on the in-depth development of the domestic market, while carefully assessing the recovery prospects and regional risks of export business.
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