Brazilian cement market showed a typical contradictory pattern of "volume increase and price pressure". According to the Brazilian Cement Industry Association (SNIC), the national cement sales in April increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 5.354 million tons, and the cumulative sales in the first four months reached 21.287 million tons, up 1.9% year-on-year. Rolling sales in the past 12 months were 67.3 million tons, up 2.8% year-on-year. The association predicts that the annual growth rate of the industry will slow down to a range of 1% to 2%, significantly lower than growth level of 3.7% in 2025, which itself reflects the industry's cautious attitude towards cost-side pressures and macro uncertainties. The core driving force
supporting the moderate expansion of current demand comes from the double underpinning of labor market and housing policy. Brazil's unemployment rate was 6.1% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest level in the same period since 2012, and the stable wage income scale combined with the income tax exemption policy continued to boost consumer confidence. In the real estate sector, the "My Home, My Life" housing program contributed 52% of the country's new housing sales, promoted sales and construction activities to remain active, and provided the most direct project-level support for cement consumption.
However, the positive data on the demand side is being hedged by the sharp deterioration on the cost side. Paul Camilo Pena, chairman of SNIC, made it clear that the conflict in the Middle East had had a "strong impact" on Brazil's cement industry. As the main fuel of cement production, petroleum coke accounts for about 40% of the production cost, and is highly dependent on imports, and its price has risen sharply in the near future. At the same time, imported raw materials such as explosives, ammonia, urea and cement admixtures, as well as sea freight, recorded a significant increase. In the domestic logistics sector, the adjustment of diesel prices and the increase of road freight rates continue to exert pressure, while road transport undertakes about 90% of the cement distribution tasks in Brazil. The rising cost of the whole chain from fuel, raw materials to logistics is systematically eroding industry profits and may be transmitted to terminal prices in the coming months. The differentiation of
regional market performance further reveals the imbalance of growth sources. As Brazil's largest cement consumer market, sales in the southeast fell by 0.6% in the first four months of this year, but grew by 6.1% year-on-year to 2.502 million tons in April, indicating that the region is gradually recovering from the weakness at the beginning of the year. Northeast China had the strongest performance in the first four months, with sales increasing by 7.3% to 4.787 million tons, but unexpectedly fell by 0.5% to 1.124 million tons in April, showing a marginal slowdown in growth momentum. In the first four months, the southern region increased by 2.8% to 3.752 million tons, and increased by 1.4% to 923,000 tons in April, remaining stable. The Midwest was basically flat at 2.247 million tons in the first four months, down 2.2% to 578,000 tons in April. The north, the smallest market, grew 3.1% to 994,000 tonnes in the first four months, but fell 8.8% to 227,000 tonnes in April, the most volatile. This regional alternation of heat and cold shows that the positive growth at the national level is mainly supported by the periodic recovery in some regions, rather than general market recovery.
The export side is facing a more severe contraction. Cement exports in April fell 16.7% year-on-year to 50000 tons, with a cumulative export of only 14000 tons in the first four months, plunging 36.4% year-on-year. The sharp decline in exports not only reflects the decline in competitiveness in the international market, but also to some extent shows that the priority of domestic demand to absorb local production capacity is rising. On
the whole, the Brazilian cement industry is in a fragile balance in 2026. On the one hand, employment improvement and housing policy provide the foundation for demand; on the other hand, the multiple risks of cost shocks caused by the Middle East conflict, record household debt, declining construction confidence and labor shortages are gathering. The full-year growth forecast of 1% to 2% given by SNIC has actually fully accounted for the drag of these negative factors. For industry participants, the key challenge is how to maintain price competitiveness in an environment of rising costs across the board, while coping with the sustainability of market recovery in the Southeast and the pressure of regional structural adjustment brought about by the weakening of growth momentum in the Northeast.
浙公网安备33010802003254号