2025, Russia's cement consumption continued the downward trend of last year. Compared with the same period in 2024, the national demand shrank by 8.6% and plunged by 10.5% in the second quarter alone. Among them, the Central Federal District fell 11.8% in June, while the industrial town of Belgorod fell 8.4% in the second quarter. According to the latest judgment of the industry association, the annual decline will expand to 13-15%, and the market is far from bottoming out in the cold winter. Behind the sharp drop in
demand is the dual pressure of macro and real estate. The central bank's benchmark interest rate remained high for a long time, which not only raised the financing cost of developers, but also directly strangled the credit ability of home buyers. At the same time, the national preferential mortgage plan ended at the end of 2024, and the sales of new houses slowed down instantly. Faced with declining sales and tight cash flow, developers generally adopt the strategy of "reducing and guaranteeing prices": postponing delivery, compressing new construction area, and even freezing the buildings that have been publicized for a long time, cement purchases have fallen off a cliff.
To make matters worse, the influx of imported cement is accelerating. According to industry estimates, Russia's total imports in the first half of the year exceeded the same period last year, Belarus remained the largest source, while low-priced clinker and bulk cement from Iran surged 25% year-on-year. If the shipping schedule in the second half of the year maintains the current rhythm, the annual import volume is expected to exceed 4 million tons, which is equivalent to the annual output of two to three million-ton production lines in China, and also means that thousands of jobs will be "replaced" by external capacity.
As early as April this year, Soyuzcement gave a relatively optimistic baseline scenario: the national demand may fall to 61.4 million tons (-7.5%) in 2025, and a slight decrease of 0.5% to 61.2 million tons in 2026. However, the macro data of the past three months have clearly deviated from this forecast track. If the decline of 13-15% is calculated, the actual consumption in 2025 may fall below 57 million tons, a new low in nearly ten years, and whether it can stop falling in 2026 still depends on the timing of interest rate and real estate policy.