2023. When will China, the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, reach its carbon peak? It is a hot topic of concern both at home and abroad.
According to official reports, China's carbon dioxide emissions are now around 11 billion tons per year. Most of China's carbon dioxide emissions are from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. A small portion is emitted from the calcination of limestone in the production of cement. Other greenhouse gas emissions are negligible. China's cement production has basically reached its peak, but energy demand is still growing, and will continue to grow for a long time to come.
However, the growth rate of China's energy-intensive heavy chemical industry has declined, and the annual growth rate of new energy demand is now about 3.5%, which will gradually decline in the future. It is probable that the absolute amount of new energy demand in China will be basically stable. If all the new energy supply uses fossil energy, it will need to increase carbon dioxide emissions by about 400 million tons per year in the future. If the new zero-carbon energy sources, such as solar, aquatic and nuclear energy, can replace fossil energy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 400 million tons per year, China can immediately achieve the carbon peak. The main path of
carbon dioxide emission reduction is electrification, and the supply of electricity is provided by zero-carbon renewable energy and nuclear energy. China's current electricity generation is mainly from coal-fired power generation, and China's current coal consumption for power generation is about & nbsp; 301 & nbsp; grams of standard coal/kWh, so the carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power generation are about & nbsp; 800 & nbsp; grams/kWh.
Now the biggest contribution to carbon dioxide emission reduction is photovoltaic power generation. In 2022, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China is only more than 80 million kilowatts, and in 2023, it is likely to reach 2 billion kilowatts. In one year, the newly installed capacity has increased by 1 billion kilowatts, and the growth rate has exceeded that of 2 billion kilowatts. 100%, the new annual capacity of photovoltaic holds up half the sky of the new annual emission reduction of carbon dioxide in China. The direct reason for such rapid growth is that the bottleneck of silicon material production has been opened. In about a year, the price of silicon material has dropped by about 80%, and the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped by nearly 50%. As a result, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is significantly lower than that of coal-fired power generation.
Estimate & nbsp; 2023 The carbon dioxide emissions reduced by China's new zero-carbon energy power generation capacity replacing coal-fired power in the whole year are shown in the following table:
According to the calculation results in the above table, if the annual installed capacity of wind power, hydropower and nuclear power remains basically unchanged in the future, the new energy demand will remain unchanged. China's annual new photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by about 60 million kilowatts on the basis of the new capacity of 200 million kilowatts in 2023, reaching about 260 million kilowatts per year, and the carbon peak will be achieved. Please refer to the figure below for the change of new capacity of PV power generation in China in recent years. When will
China reach its carbon peak? The answer can be seen through at a glance! However, the achievement of carbon peak is only the first half of the grand drama of carbon neutralization. To achieve carbon neutrality in
China, there are two key problems to be solved, one is that the cost of wind and solar power generation should be low enough, and the other is that there should be enough power consumption to absorb excess wind and solar power and compensate for the shortage of wind and solar power, that is, the so-called smart energy, to ensure the stability of the power system. Now the cost of wind and solar power generation is lower than that of coal power, and it is still decreasing. The first key problem has been solved.
Therefore, the most critical problem to be solved on the road to carbon neutrality after China's carbon peak is to develop a large number of low-cost smart energy. The good play is still in the second half, and there is a long way to go!
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